Juanda's Move In The Dark Against Negreanu

[-Syk-]

I watched this episode against last night, as I have them all recorded, and I can't understand why Juanda would make that move?

Did he just misread Negreanu and think he had nothing at all or what? Because if Negreanu hit his flush it woulda been lights out for Juanda.

Also, what is the purpose of betting all your chips in the dark? Is there some strategy I'm not privy to?

-Syk-

[Nagoo81]

This was discussed on this thread:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=870577&page=1&view=collap sed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1#870577

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
This was discussed on this thread:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=870577&page=1&view=collap sed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1#870577

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it was?? /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
I watched this episode against last night, as I have them all recorded, and I can't understand why Juanda would make that move?

Did he just misread Negreanu and think he had nothing at all or what? Because if Negreanu hit his flush it woulda been lights out for Juanda.

Also, what is the purpose of betting all your chips in the dark? Is there some strategy I'm not privy to?

-Syk-

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I think he misread him. I'm thinking he put him on either 2 small pair or A-x or one pair, which obviously had the possiblity to get 2 pair on the river. I think he wanted to seem stronger than he really was to make these hands fold on the river.

Obviously, if he knew that he was on the draw, he would've never made that move.

[Beavis68]

I think he had over half his chips in the pot, and was committed to the hand so he played a mind game that would at least give Daniel the opportunity to lay down his little piss-and flush.

[-Syk-]

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I think he had over half his chips in the pot, and was committed to the hand so he played a mind game that would at least give Daniel the opportunity to lay down his little piss-and flush.

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I don't understand how you determined that's why he made this move. If Daniel hit the flush I guarantee he wouldn't have folded because he thought he was beat. I just don't see how that would happen unless there was a possible Boat out there, and if my memory serves me correct, there wasn't. Just a thought.

[Toro]

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Interestingly, I saw the reverse in a big WSOP event recently on ESPN. It was John Juanda and Danny Negreanu, two A-list players heads up in a hand. Juanda had the lead in the hand(think he had top pair/top kicker) and Negreanu had a flush draw.

Before the dealer turned the River card, Juanda stopped him and said I want to bet all-in in the dark. Negreanu looked at him like he had two heads. The river was dealt and it didn't make Negreanu's flush so he folded. I think Negreanu made a comment that that was a pretty stupid thing to do as what if he made his hand. And of course he was absolutely correct.

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The above is part of my response to a post about checking in the dark that was made about a week ago. I had offered this example of the converse of checking in the dark, that is, betting in the dark.

I personally didn't think Juanda misread anything. I think he just made a real dumb play but was fortunate to get away with it.

[whiskeytown]

well, not me, but it came up at his Full Tilt Poker table some time a couple nights afterwards..

without getting too elaborate, he said he would have called any all-in bet on the river anyways, so why not make the first move....just for the psychological damage.

I believe he might have had a read on Daniel N...but I don't know that for sure...he didn't say that.

may be a bit of a summary, but that's the way he described it in the chat window of his table at Full Tilt.

RB

[ohgeetee]

phil gordon probably bet him that he wouldn't do it. Those guys will gamble on anything, haha.

[SossMan]

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I personally didn't think Juanda misread anything. I think he just made a real dumb play but was fortunate to get away with it.



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I doubt it....this move had everything to do with chipstacks and knowing his opponent.

[Stoneii]

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he said he would have called any all-in bet on the river anyways, so why not make the first move....just for the psychological damage

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if he had a read that Daniel would bluff the river come what may, why not take more chips off him?

[Toro]

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I personally didn't think Juanda misread anything. I think he just made a real dumb play but was fortunate to get away with it.



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I doubt it....this move had everything to do with chipstacks and knowing his opponent.

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So you believe that he misread the situation??

[Moozh]

Try this one:

Juanda's Push in the Dark (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tv&Number=828158)

[The Bear]

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without getting too elaborate, he said he would have called any all-in bet on the river anyways, so why not make the first move....just for the psychological damage.

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That doesn't make much sense on a drawish board. He eliminates any chance that Daniel will bet a busted draw. I don't like the play at all. Of course, those two play a ton of poker together, so perhaps John was sure that Daniel wouldn't bet if he missed, but that seems like a pretty grand assumption.

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
well, not me, but it came up at his Full Tilt Poker table some time a couple nights afterwards..

without getting too elaborate, he said he would have called any all-in bet on the river anyways, so why not make the first move....just for the psychological damage.

I believe he might have had a read on Daniel N...but I don't know that for sure...he didn't say that.

may be a bit of a summary, but that's the way he described it in the chat window of his table at Full Tilt.

RB

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This actually makes sense. Even if he believe that theres only a 1% chance that his opponent will lay down a flush, if hes going to call all in no matter what, then he might as well bet out in the most intimidating way possible.

[jwvdcw]

I think that if his opponent had A-x and hit his second pair, he might have laid it down to this play. In short, he misread him.

[Gramps]

I don't remember the exact bet/pot sizes, but the Turn bet that Negreanu called was such that (in Juanda's eyes at least - remember only we can see Negreanu's cards) he probably wouldn't have called the Turn bet as well with a flush draw(he'd paired on the Turn to go along with his flush draw, probably the deciding factor in calling that bet).

So after Juanda had limped in with his AQ, on an Ace high board Negreanu had gone check-call, check-call (pretty good sized Turn bet).

Maybe Juanda put him on Ax/2nd pair and was hoping Negreanu would put HIM on a flush draw and call on the River if no 3rd suited came. Who knows. Still a pretty balsy/gambling play.

[PokerFink]

It comes down to this.

1) Negreanu is an extremely aggressive bettor, and is also very good at calling on the river in tight spots (or so it would seem from his articles). His weakness it that he often hangs himself with bluffs, but hey, thats the negative side to being aggressive. Because he is an aggressive bettor, and because Juanda had most of his stack in the middle, JJ was going to have to call any bet that Dan made on the river.

2) JJ really has no idea what Dan has in this situation. He could have a draw, a pair, a combination hand, anything. Negreanu is such a wild player, and plays so many different (and crazy) starting hands, that its hard to put him on a hand. JJ likes his hand, but doesn't know if it's good, and doesn't know if it will be good on the river.

Bottom Line: By pushing in the dark, JJ is showing a great deal of confidence in his hand, especially considering that he is such a smart, controlled player, compared to the wildness of Negreanu. This move threw Negreanu for a loop. Negreanu doesn't have a CLUE what JJ has at this point. While it is unlikely that DN would have folded if the flush hit, he may have folded if he made two pair, figuring JJ for a better 2pairs or a set (because of the dark push). Since JJ was going to have to call any river bet, why not put maximum pressure on you're opponent to call you.

[Toro]

So what you're basically saying is that if you fear being outplayed by your opponent, just go all-in and then you can't be outplayed.

This is not good poker imo.

[PokerFink]

Thats not what I'm saying at all. How did you get that conclusion?

You can't win in holdem by being passive, you win in holdem by putting pressure on you're opponent and attacking. Juanda has two options here. He can go all-in in the dark and put maximum pressure on Negreanu, or he can let Negreanu see the river, put him all in, and call it.

If Negreanu ends up with the worst hand, Juanda is going to see no more money from him, whether he moves in and Dan folds, or they just check around. If Negreanu ends up with the best hand, the only way Juanda can win the hand is by moving in and getting Negreanu to fold.

So considering that, in what way is moving in in the dark bad in this situation?

[Toro]

Because if the 3rd flush card hits, he's already committed and totally screwed. Really no upside to what he did. I really think that he was pisssed at himself for not going all-in on the turn which would have ruined Negreanu's odds for drawing. So, imo, he panicked and made this ill-advised play that he was lucky to survive with no harm done.