River bet EV?

$30/$60 Hold'em. Game hard to define. It has a quietly noisey relaxed intensity.


Tight-aggressive UTG open raises. Folded around to me in cutoff. I 3-bet with pocket queens. Loose-aggressive button calls (DOH!), UTG caps, I call, button calls.


3 ways. Buncha bets in the pot.


Flop comes 2-2-7 rainbow.


UTG bets. I raise. Button reraises. UTG mucks. I cap. Button calls.


Turn card blank. I bet. Button calls.


River is an ace.


I bet.


Comments?

I put button on something like:


A7s, 78s, 55,66,88,99,TT, maybe JJ. I am not quite sure how loose/aggressive this opponent is.


I expect to have the best hand most of the time here.

I expect to be called by a better hand often enough for a bet to be profitable.


However, is checking more profitable than betting?

Does he bluff very often?

Will he try to value bet JJ after I check?

Would he stick around this long with just overcards?


I say good bet.


Many players would expect a big overpair and simply check behind with something like TT.


Check out this post:

It seems most likely the button has an unimproved pocket pair smaller than yours, and will probably check along if you check the river to him. So, it looks like a good value bet to me.