Understanding SSH - Protecting Your Hand question

[cold_cash]

I was going over the "Protecting Your Hand" section of SSH, and while I think I understand the basic underlying principle, I do have a question.

I know that when the pot is big and the bettor is to your left, protecting your hand can be difficult; this is where my question arises.

Let's say for example I'm on the button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG open raises, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, I 3-bet, both blinds fold, UTG caps, all call. 4 players to the flop for 16 small bets.

The flop comes 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. UTG bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, I call. (20 small bets)

The turn brings the 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG bets out again, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, I raise.

Am I protecting my hand with this raise, even though it's unlikely MP1 and MP2 are going to fold after already calling the first bet? The pot is so big by this point, and they would each be getting around 15 or 16 to 1 to call the raise (assuming UTG doesn't 3-bet).

I guess my question is, with the bettor on my left, is it sometimes impossible to protect my hand?

Even if this raise won't "protect my hand" I need to be making it anyway, correct?

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I protecting my hand with this raise, even though it's unlikely MP1 and MP2 are going to fold after already calling the first bet? The pot is so big by this point, and they would each be getting around 15 or 16 to 1 to call the raise (assuming UTG doesn't 3-bet).


[/ QUOTE ]

No, you are not protecting your hand with this raise. You are, actually, exploiting a pot equity edge somewhere between significant and huge depending on what others are holding. This is a very good raise for that reason. However, you should raise the flop here IMO. You have a very big equity edge on the flop and I don't think that passing on that is compensated for later although others might disagree. The argument would be that you might get checked to on the turn and then only get one bet in there. By just calling on the flop it may be bet again by the EP bettor and then you can raise after everyone has already called that bet and must now call again. (The counterargument is that the flop bettor knowingly bet into the pre-flop 3-bettor; if you raise he may three-bet and you can cap if you choose, thus trapping the other limpers for multiple flop bets when you have a big edge.)

Given your position it will be hard to knock people out and "protect your hand". You should be focused on exploiting your pot equity edge to its fullest here. Personally I would raise the flop but I would be interested to hear if others disagree.

All the best.

Colgin

[BeerMoney]

Please explain equity.

[Ed Miller]

Even if this raise won't "protect my hand" I need to be making it anyway, correct?

Yes. Even if no one folds, your raise is for value with only one card to come.

[cold_cash]

My Aces are going to win this pot x% of the time, and that percentage is probably much higher than anyone else's.

(I think that's the idea, anyway.)

[dirty_dan]

Rather, my aces are going to win this pot X% and X is greater than 100 / number of players currently in the hand.

If 4 players are in the hand and your hand will hold up more than 25% of the time, any additional bets you put in are earning you money. This is true whether you are the favorite or not.

[eh923]

I don't see that your raise protects your hand here.
However, you're good more than 25% of the time, so your raise would still be for value.

It is often impossible to protect your hand. Sometimes it's because of the pot size (like here). Other times, it's just you, a maniac, and 3 calling stations who love cold-calling.

In this example, with 10BB in the pot at the start of the turn, the pot is already large enough that people will have odds to go to the river. Since you can't manipulate your opponents into making a mistake, you might as well raise the flop. Maybe you'll even luck out and be against AK and get to raise the turn.