Push with any 2?

[NotMitch]

Live SnG at the Trop in AC. 50+15, $350 to the winner, $100 to second, $50 to third. We are down to 3, 3000 chips in play. Button has T1300ish, I have T800ish and the BB has T900. Blinds arre T100/T200 w/ 25 ante. Going up to T200/T400 a T50 in less that 2 mins.

BB seems to know only one thing about tourney play and that is you need a much better hand to call than to bet. Earlier I put him all in from the SB with KQo and he thought forever and called with 99 and was very unhappy with himself for calling. We have also been playing 2/4 togther for the last 4 hours and thanks to some super cold cards he thinks I am the tightest player in the world and since I'm up quite a bit anyway thinks I'm also pretty good.

So on to the hand. Button folds its on you in the SB, the pot is T375 do you push with any 2 cards here? And what % of the time does he have to fold for pushing with any 2 cards correct?

[Ken Morris]

I believe I'd push with any 2.

If you wait to catch a hand on the button, you will almost surely be called. The BB will be getting better than 3:2, even if the blinds haven't gone up. After that, it's crap shoot time.

If you push now, the "gap fixated" current BB may fold what, 30% of the time? If you beat him 30% of the time he calls, you are about even money to live a little longer. I am getting these numbers out of thin air (my primary source), and would appreciate some feedback. However, I don't think you do better waiting.

[stupidsucker]

Push with any two for sure.

50+15 wow. I cant see this being worth it. All the money is in first place, 2nd and 3rd are the same as far as I am concerned. Be aggressive and I might even call with a few more hands then I would an online SnG because at this point you need to be lucky imo to take first.

If you try to squeek into second then you will almost never get 1st, and 3rd will still happen a lot.

[NotMitch]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe I'd push with any 2.

If you wait to catch a hand on the button, you will almost surely be called. The BB will be getting better than 3:2, even if the blinds haven't gone up. After that, it's crap shoot time.

If you push now, the "gap fixated" current BB may fold what, 30% of the time? If you beat him 30% of the time he calls, you are about even money to live a little longer. I am getting these numbers out of thin air (my primary source), and would appreciate some feedback. However, I don't think you do better waiting.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW I think he folds a ton more than 30% of the time here, maybe more than 50%.

So I had 62 sooooooooooooted, he thought forever and called with QJo (A hand I would have bet my bankroll on him folding this type of hand), I got no help and got bounced. I just wanted to make sure I wasnt being crazy pushing here because I'm a little rusty playing SnG's.

[stupidsucker]

not crazy at all IMO. Now that he has made the money, he has loosened up his calling standards rightly so to try to knock you out. QJo seems a bit low to me, but he had to figure himself for nothing more then a 40% dog, and if he is smart enough to know not to call with crap like Ax on the bubble he is most likely smart enough to know that you could be pushing with any 2. His stack was big enough to sustain a blow if he lost to you, so he took a shot.

good play I think. Sorry it didnt work.

[NotMitch]

[ QUOTE ]
not crazy at all IMO. Now that he has made the money, he has loosened up his calling standards rightly so to try to knock you out. QJo seems a bit low to me, but he had to figure himself for nothing more then a 40% dog, and if he is smart enough to know not to call with crap like Ax on the bubble he is most likely smart enough to know that you could be pushing with any 2. His stack was big enough to sustain a blow if he lost to you, so he took a shot.

good play I think. Sorry it didnt work.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I think he has to call there, and if I have a huge hand so be it. I dont think I had to push but with all the dead money out and with how often I thought he would fold I think a push is good. I probably finish 3rd a lot more and win a lot more pushing there. I think he might have also started to figure out I wasnt the same rock he had seen play all day, becuase I had pushed a few times prior to this.

I also wouldn't suggest anyone playing in these events at the Trop, high entry fee, lousy blind structure (start with T300 blinds T5/T10 go up every 10 mins). Also the real payout is $400 for 1st and $100 for 2nd, I suggested chopping the $50 off of first to give to third to flatten it out a little. But at least it was fun, and most of the players are realllllly bad.