When to give up on AK?

[realbad101]

Table is loose and passive. Did I wimp out on the turn? All advice / insults / random musings greatly appreciated...

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Confused is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $0.50. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 (poster) folds, CO (poster) folds, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">Confused 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, Button calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Confused bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Button calls, Confused calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Confused checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Button calls, Confused folds.

River: (11 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Button calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB

[Vern]

In this case I do think you gave up too fast. Typically a raise UTG means a good hand, you three bet it and he chose not to cap. With another player in there I doubt AA, KK or QQ now, I think his range of hands is AKs-ATs, JJ-99 KQs unless you have a specific read on him. Good lead out on the flop, the raise tells me little but I think BTN has a medium PP, you have to call his raise and see the turn. On the turn, there is no flush possible, very little straight possible for someone that bet or cold called three so I think your overcard outs are still somewhat clean. Closing the action on the turn, you are getting 11:1 to hit 6 outs, using the half outs analysis from SSHE, you can count 3 of those (Although on this board I think 4 would not be a stretch) so you are 14.33:1 to hit a 3 outer and getting 11:1 to call. I don't think you need to worry about a 2, but BTN could be playing 88 or 66, but he called the turn so again, I don't think it is likely and I don't fear the 2 yet so I would call thinking my outs are cleaner than usual because of this raggedy board and I might pick up the extra 2 bets I need to break even using just 3 for outs. That and the pot is starting to look huge. On the river when a king or ace hits, I would lead out and call one back to me. But all this may be biased because you told me the king was coming on the river.

Vern

[realbad101]

Great Post. Does anyone think a three bet on the flop gets me a free card?

[realbad101]

FYI,
UTG shows pocket tens. Button shows a 64 of clubs.

[stir]

I disagree with the 14.3 vs 11:1 analysis. I think your outs are clean so its 6 outs, not 4 (due to the rainbow board plus no obvious str8 draw) and that is 6.7:1.

I do not think the intent of SSH was to discount outs unless there is evidence on the board that they are be dirty and I don't see it in your example. For instance, it would be enitrely different if the board was J, 10, 4 rainbow. Very dirty.

So you should have called the turn.

[rjc199]

ok,

Don't post the river action because it has nothing to do with playing your hand correctly.

Look at the hand again and tell me how many outs do you think you have? Do you have the odds to draw?