bubble 77 problem

[Alix]

100$ party SNG
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: SDGuy (455)
Seat 5: mtfulco (400)
Seat 6: jmark71 (8070)
Seat 10: AlixM (1075)
mtfulco posts small blind (100)
jmark71 posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to AlixM [ 7d, 7s ]

your move ?

What if the small stacks will automatically fold and the big stack will only call with a pair, an ace or 2 cards >= T ?

[mackthefork]

I was gonna say push until i saw the 100+9 lol, I think i push this anyways let him call, you got 5BB and you don't got a lock on the money yet, why would he call with any two over ten it don't make a lot of sense. I push and hope an SS calls me and big stack folds.

disclaimer - i never once played a 100 sng.

Regards Mack

[patrick dicaprio]

well you cant fold and no matter what you do there is a good chance the big stack will call with a hand you can beat like Ax or KQs or something like that, not that you want to be called. i would push here without a second thought. i know that you want to outlast the short stacks, but if one of them goes all in and doubles up they will be almost equal to you and there is still a good chance of an uncntested win.

Pat

[edge]

I push this. 77 is a good hand late, especially when you're sitting with a 5 BB stack.

[Alix]

I think folding is correct, but it's close, and very dependant on the bb's playing style.

In my analysis, I use the Sklansky-Peacock tournament equity model, which is explained here (http://tinyurl.com/6vmz3).

First, why should a rational big stack call with a lot of hands here ? Because he has more to gain by busting me than what he has to lose by losing a few of his chips. There is a boundary effect that constitutes an exception to the rule that says that the chip equity curve is concave.

If the bb folds, his $ev is 455$. If he busts me, his $ev goes up to 485$, and if he loses 875 chips, doubling me up, it goes down to 435$. So he gains 30 or he loses 20. This means he only needs a 36.2% winning chance to be correct to put 875 more chips in.

Now, let's look at my position. I did ev calculations by using a hand matchup table, and enumerating all possible weighted matchups.

If I fold, my $ev is 253$.

If I push and the bb calls with anything, my $ev goes down to 174$, even if my Tev goes up.

Now with the set of calling hands that I suggested, which I think is too tight, my $ev is 287$. So in this case pushing is correct, and stays so even if wa account for the small stacks calling with big pairs.

But this is a situation where I'm either a little right or quite wrong, which makes a case for passing.

But this problem is still open until someone computes the Nash equilibrium, using some reasonable assumptions to reduce it to a two player game.