Complex JJ on the bubble - What would you do?

[wmajik]

Here's a recent $200 STT involving a somewhat(?) complex bubble play situation. The game is as follows:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed)

SB (t4938)
Hero (t1070)
UTG (t612)
Button (t3380)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to t475</font>, SB calls t375, <font color="CC3333">Hero ...

- Button is a tight, thinking player, who hasn't pre-flop raised much
- SB is a very loose caller with low starting hand requirements
- UTG is an overly tight player, prone to folding
- Hero image is very tight

What would be your preferred route of action:

1) Flat call, then move all-in on a good flop (could be beaten already by the button and the SB is going to call anyways, so better to see the flop first)

2) Raise all-in to try and isolate into a heads up match (button may be on steal or will fold to give SB the chance to knock-out BB on bubble - while for hero, JJ vs SB matchup would be optimal, especially for a gun for 1st place)

3) Fold (low chance of SB and BB both folding for 600 more and hero still has more chips than UTG who is weak, so there is still chance to slide into third)

Anyhow, I can think of two pretty good arguments for two of the above options, although I acted and leaned much more toward one of them. However, I'd like to hear opinions from outside my own angle however, so all thoughts and comments are appreciated.

[Meatmaw]

Push. This is no time to be worrying about crawling into 3rd. There are still plenty of hands for the low stack to get back in shape and you should seize the JJ now. I think calling would be terrible, an absolute worst play of all of them.

[Gramps]

I think calling, and pushing on a flop with no overcards is probably the best strategy here (or push/check-push if you flop trips). If you push, you may end up having two opponents seeing the flop with you - which would probably make you &lt; 50% to win the hand. If you call and lose that 275 only, you still have 800 chips with UTG being the BB on the next hand, you still have a good edge on him for 3rd place (and that 20% for 3rd is nothing to scoff at/put at risk lightly).

If you push and triple up, that's great, but you're still an underdog in the 1st-place battle. You risk a lot, and get a good but not 1st-place favorite-type reward if you're successful. If you flat call, push on a good flop, and fold out SB and BB (or get called by a worse hand and JJ holds up), you've still won a very nice pot.

If you push on a favorable flop, get called, and lose...oh well, you'd be a big favorite against those two likely hands on an undercards flop.

[stupidsucker]

It is tough.

Pushing is probably what I do more often then not.
But in this case, I think you may very well get called by both. They both have the odds to call you. The Button might fold not wanting to deal with a re-raise from the SB. The SB will almost deffenatly call.

You have almost zero folding equity, and against 2 opponents your not looking great with JJ.

I would probably call and look for the good flop to push with.

Folding is just too weak IMO.

[Eder]

button is tight but raises...scary...JJ might be up against coin flip or worse...XXXX

[mcj0014]

I'd either fold or push. I'd be most worried about a higher pocket pair and what is a good flop here really other than getting a third J? Even if no overcards fall you still have to be worried about the big pocketpair. An advantage to pushing is that they both might have A+something giving you better odds of holding up since they counterfeit each other.

[wmajik]

Thanks for the posts guys - looks like it's pretty evenly split, with good reasons for pushing and calling.

In the end, I ended up pushing on this pot. My biggest fear was getting two callers of course, but my logic was that the button being a thinking player, would respect the raise and also give the SB a chance to knock me out.

In addition, I thought my raise would serve to protect me by adding to the pot. By raising the pot, my hope was that the button would be reluctant to call, because the loose SB (who was chip lead) could move in over him - and if the SB just smooth called, the pot odds were big enough for the SB to draw. To boot, I would already be all-in, so it would remove the button's chances of a bluff play to win the pot.

As it turns out, the button folded and the SB called with K2 and flopped a King. The rest is history.

That flop ended up making me wonder if it would have been wiser to call first. I guess in the end, it comes down to whether I'm willing to first see 3 card at the expense of having two opponents, or see no cards and go heads-up.

Anyhow, thanks for the feedback guys, much appreciated /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Martin Aigner]

Push it, 100% of the times. This is a 200 buy in 4handed bubble play. Even tight players would raise on the button with cards way worse.

Raise, hope that you don´t get called, but even if you get called by both players I´d expect you to win about 40% of the time.

Best regards

Martin Aigner