# times AA or KK

[mcj0014]

I am trying to determine how much of my results have to do with a bad run of cards. The only obvious thing I could think of was to see how many times I've gotten AA,KK or QQ, JJ, 10-10, AKo, AKs. My expectation for pairs is 21,098/221=95 times. My results are AA-91, KK-72, QQ-89, JJ-96, 10-10-93. My expectation for AKo is 21,098/83=254. My results are AKo-212. My expectation for AKs is 21,098/331.5 = 64. My results are AKs-59.

It looks like I'm getting screwed on KK and AKo a bit. Do you think this might have a significant bearing on my rather poor, but still positive results? I'm certainly not experiencing an above average run of cards. Anyway, I'd like to hear results of others. Gotta keep that shuffling algorithm honest besides.

[Potowame]

My only thought, If you can only do well when you are dealt a high rate of premuim hands, you are not going to be succesful in the long run in single table trnys.

if you get at least 2 Premium hands before ITM, you should be able to make it. The rest should be made up with steals, BB specials and playing hands like 910S well. IMO

[mcj0014]

Agreed. But it looks like my hands are average or below average. Since my ROI is about 10%, getting those extra KK and AKo would make a big difference, I think.

[Potowame]

Yes, getting AA-QQ AK should make it pretty easy to make it ITM at a semi-loose table. Getting these hands 4-5 times in the first 5 rounds You should have a large chip lead, and be able to fold to ITM, or close to it.

The thing with these hands is that you have to get action to really increase your chances, of these hands giving you an edge over the table. More times than not you will win the blinds with a 3xBB raise, or get a call fold to a flop bet. Also, How many times have you been dealt a monster in the BB and have it folded all the may around to you, or only winning the SB complete.

I think the key to these hands is when you get them.

#1 Late position with a UTG - MP-1 Raiser.

#2 getting AA in the BB with a Raiser, or Raise and
Reraise.

Ect. Ect.

[mcj0014]

I think these hands would help by just getting 1 of them on the bubble. Instead of gradually dying from the blinds and no cards to speak of and winding up in 4th or 5th, it could make the difference. I don't need 4 or 5 of them a tournament, but the 23 KK's and 40 AKo's spread out over the 400 tournaments I've played would almost certainly increase my ROI. By how much I have no idea.

[Potowame]

Yes I would have to agree with you on that. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[allenciox]

Just so you know, this deviation is not statistically different from chance (p > .1) in a Chi-Square test.

[mcj0014]

I calculated the expectation for AKo incorrectly. I really should have had it 21098/110.5=191 times. So I'm actually above average there. It probably balances out the KK's.

[mcj0014]

Good deal. We know that the shuffles aren't bogus. Too bad, then I'd have another excuse for sucking.

[Cleveland Guy]

You might be looking at too small of a sample size to look at each specific occasion individually.

I added up your total hits vs. expected hits on the sample size you gave.

You have been dealt one of those hands a total of 712 times, out of an expected 730. So your difference is 18.

18/21,098 = ~.09%

I'd say your fairly accurate. Your next 20,000 you might hit those hands 25 times more than expected.

[mcj0014]

That's a pretty good way to look at it. Thanks.