Folding pocket tens to an early position raise

[Mr. D]

So I'm in a $55 game at party and I haven't really played a hand the whole time. Was this a timid laydown or a good move?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed)

CO (t965)
Hero (t1110)
SB (t445)
BB (t185)
UTG (t1240)
UTG+1 (t1235)
MP1 (t3620)
MP2 (t1200)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t50, <font color="CC3333">CO raises to t150</font>, Hero folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP2 calls t100.

Flop: (t375) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP2 bets t100</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises to t225</font>, MP2 calls t125.

Turn: (t825) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets t125</font>, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: t950

[Dominic]

I think it all depends on your read of the other player...it's always a tough one...calling a tenth of your stack hoping to make a set isn't ever the right play...pushing in this situation might give you longterm +EV and folding doesn't really hurt you...the blinds aren't huge yet so maybe I'd wait for another hand as well...

But if I felt - even a little bit - that the CO was making a play, I'd push.

[Mr. D]

&gt; But if I felt - even a little bit - that the CO was
&gt; making a play, I'd push.

CO was a solid player, so my thought process was that he wouldn't make a 3xBB raise simply to steal, given the limper in front of him.

(BTW, just realized that my title was a mistake.. it was a middle position limp, late position raise. Should have read something like "play tens behind a limp and a raise")

[adanthar]

I'd never fold here, but lately I've been convinced that reraising them is wrong, too. I think just calling TT-JJ may be good.

Keep in mind you'll flop a set *or* an overpair something like 50% of the time and you're in LP. You can safely lay down to an all in reraise if it comes to that, but that hand seems too good to fold preflop.

[pokerkai]

The fold is a safe play...but safe is boring /images/graemlins/smile.gif

So if I were to play this, id put him on overs and cold call. If the flop comes rags, and when he leads (and he will), I would raise him and steal the pot there

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind you'll flop a set *or* an overpair something like 50% of the time and you're in LP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I think it's more like &lt; 1/3 of the time. Where do you get 50%?

eastbay

[River2Pair]

Here's a similar hand....

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed)

SB (t1605)
Hero (t1510)
UTG (t620)
MP1 (t520)
MP2 (t1725)
CO (t535)
Button (t1485)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises to t60</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls t30,

Flop: (t135) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets t65</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises to t1100</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t1450 (All-In)</font>, MP2 calls t350.

Turn: (t3035) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t3035) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t3035

[Mr. D]

[ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind you'll flop a set *or* an overpair something like 50% of the time and you're in LP.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to this page about flopping overcards (http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp34/), there will be an overcard 69.5% of the time for pocket tens. You flop a set 1 of 8 times (off the top of my head) which is 12.5 percent. Unfortunately, you can't just add the 12.5 to the 30.5 (percentage w/o overcard) because part of the time when there is no overcard (the 30.5%), you also make your set. They are intersecting sets of probabilities (math sets, not 3 of a kinds sets). I think if we multiply the 12.5 by the 69.5 to get 8.7% and add that to the 30.5% we're pretty damn close. Sooo.. my educated guess is 39%, not 50%.

Isn't math fun? /images/graemlins/cool.gif

The linked website is very cool. There is some other stuff like how often your suited cards actually make a flush.

[Meatmaw]

Actually, flopping a set =

1 - (no set) =

1 - ( 48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48 ) =

11.755% so about 1 in 8.5

Just had to do the math.