Playing against very bad players

[tadams]

I've been playing in some of the FREE online tournaments lately and I've consistently found myself out of the tourmament very early on.

The typical situation is this. You start with 1500 tournament chips and the blinds have gotten to about 50/100. I have increased my stack modestly and now I am dealt QQ. I raise to 300. A very loose player on my left goes all in for 2000 chips. I know that he would make this play with any A and many other weaker hands. If I call, it will put me all in or very close to it, maybe leaving me with 200 chips. Knowing I am a heavy favorite, the last time this happened the guy had A7s making me something like a 7 to 3 favorite, I usually call. Of course, 3 of out 7 times the guy spikes an A or hits his flush and I find myself either out of the tournament or very close to it. You might say that it's just bad luck and I have to go all in with the best hand and you may be right.

The problem is that when I do win, a few hands later I run into another very loose player and again I have a strong hand and the very loose player goes all in. I know he'll go all in with about the same types of hands the last player would go all in with, so again I call. He's got A2 offsuit. I am in the same situation as before. I am going to win 70% or more of the time. I will win more often than I lose, but sometimes I do lose and again I'm out of the tournament or very close to it.

With so many of these types of players in the tournament I am constantly faced with these all-in decisions. So let's say I am faced with 3 of these decisions early in a tournament. My chances of winning 2 of them is only about 50% while my chances of winning all 3 them is only about 33%. This is the case, despite the fact that I am such a favorite for each one individually.

I know I am a much better player than 90% of the players in the tournament. In fact, almost every time I've been eliminated from a tournament it has been because I was outdrawn after having gone all-in preflop.

So my question is, has anyone else experienced this and if so how do you play against these types of player?

Here are a few ideas I am planning to try, let me know what you guys think.

1) Be more likely to call these all-in bets with something like ATs or AK than QQ. My thinking here is that most of these very loose-very aggressive players will go in with any A, so if I play a better A against them, I am a bigger favorite than if I held QQ or KK. The reason is because with QQ I really only have 2 outs if they hit one of their 3 outs. However, my ATs against their weaker A, still gives them 3 outs (by hitting their kicker), but if they do hit it I now have more than just 2 outs. I have the 3 outs to hit my bigger kicker plus I have flush and/or straight possibilities plus I could hit the A while the board paired giving me two pair with a better kicker (as long as the paired card was bigger than their kicker).

2) Either raise more chips or raise less chips when I do hold KK or QQ. The idea here is to discourage the very aggressive player from going all in. By raising more a player may think it is more likely that I am going to call if he goes all in and that I probably have a better hand. By raising less I don't make the pot large enough to entice the player to try and win it with an all-in bet. I can then try and extract as much as possible from these loose players after the flop. In fact, raising fewer chips is probably the better option of the two.

3) Be less likely to call all-in bets with QQ and KK. The idea here is that I don't want to take risks that will cost me all of my chips when I am up against such bad players. I can win more money from them by limping in with most of my hands and outplaying them on the flop and beyond. Even though I may be a huge favorite before the flop with QQ, I am an even bigger favorite after I see the flop and so I shouldn't risk a lot of my chips on any one hand against such bad players.

[kamelion44]

I can't agree with any of your revisions. For one thing, your first point isn't quite how you should look at it. In either case, the worse hand has to draw out on you. The different between 1 out on a two card draw out, is very small. Factoring in your extra out if, they hit their out, shouldn't make much of a difference when deciding whether or not to go all in against their weaker hand. Against a hand like AJo vs. your QQ, you're roughly 71%. Ditto if you held AKo (the only difference is that his win % is slightly higher vs. the QQ, because of cases of tying with AKo, or your redraw scenario, but it's only a matter of roughly 3-4%).

What you're trying to avoid in point 2+3 is exactly what any good NL player wants: get it all in with the best hand. If you have reads on them that say they regularly go all-in with Ax, then calling their all ins or enticing them to go all in vs. your KK or QQ is awesome. If you start playing your high PPs in the fashion you're describing, what are you really doing for yourself? Let's say you accomplish your goal of not getting them to go all in with you, or letting them get away from their hands when you let them see a flop, what are you gaining? I don't like the idea of letting them get a chance to see a free flop to break you or outdraw you, or let them get away from their hands when they miss the flop. The fact is, in your scenario, the blinds are really too big in proportion for your stack for you to wait for AA to call marginal all-ins, or to pay to see alot of flops! You simply can't afford to pass up opportunities where you're a 71% favorite when all the money goes in.

[ QUOTE ]
I can win more money from them by limping in with most of my hands and outplaying them on the flop and beyond. Even though I may be a huge favorite before the flop with QQ, I am an even bigger favorite after I see the flop and so I shouldn't risk a lot of my chips on any one hand against such bad players.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't limp in with alot of hands, because almost all of your hands will either 1) be raised out by an aggressive player anyhow or 2) will miss the flop or not hit it hard enough to withstand the heat an aggy will put on you. There will be so many times when you're out of position and an overcard hits, that you'll be either mucking or putting your money in when you're uncomfortable anyhow. Keep in mind you're only going to see playable hands maybe 2/10 times, and most of even those times, they won't be QQ-AA. So on those rare times you DO get those hands, you have to maximize. I'll say it again: your stack in relation to the blinds is WAY too small for you to play in this fashion.

[donny5k]

The problem is, say you get a big pair KK-JJ 3 times and someone who has you covered but has Ax goes allin all 3 times. Sure you LOVE this in cash games, but you are going to bust the majority of the time on a preflop allin well before the later rounds of the tournament if you are in this scenario a bunch of times.
I think you have to build a big enough stack early on to avoid these situations.

[MikeGuz]

Key to this post is "free rolls" these online free rolls are just a joke. I think it is a waste of time and not a learning experience. Theya re a total crap shoot even though I have won a number of them some with over 1000 players. Just in it for giggles and pure boredom.

It is wrong to consider this poker - you are playing against a bunch of weasels who probably never sat in a poker room or paid money to play in a tournament.

Just take the bad beats and move on it ain't worth worring about.

[phixxx]

Do you play the paradise poker tourneys ?

[tadams]

Yes. Paradise Poker, Party Poker, Empire Poker, Poker Stars, etc.

[phixxx]

You win anything worthwhile?

[tadams]

Not yet /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[soxfan70]

[ QUOTE ]
In fact, almost every time I've been eliminated from a tournament it has been because I was outdrawn after having gone all-in preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's typically the way it goes for most players.
[ QUOTE ]
1) Be more likely to call these all-in bets with something like ATs or AK than QQ. My thinking here is that most of these very loose-very aggressive players will go in with any A, so if I play a better A against them, I am a bigger favorite than if I held QQ or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

So your plan of defense against bad players is to play more like them? Don't be a knucklehead, getting outdrawn happens. You want the bad players to play with A7 against your KK or QQ.

[Ben Thornton]

The best advice I can give to you is to try and play these high pocket pairs softly before the flop. If the flop has no overcards to your pair, you have effectively increased your odds of winning significantly. Be wary, of course, of any suited or sequential flops. By doing this, you reduce the risk of getting out-flopped by a weak ace, and you also have a better chance of trapping if someone hits a weaker top pair on the board. You do want to maximize your profits from these hands, but continuously taking those leaps of faith will always shorten your tournament lifespan. While making those kinds of plays are important against stronger players, weaker players will more than likey provide you with even better opportunities to get into their stack.

PS. When I say play softly before the flop, I mean: don't go all-in. You should always bet to protect these hands before the flop.

[Cleveland Guy]

It's a free roll what do you expect?

I play very loose here - it's not worth it to sit around with a small/medium stack and wait for the perfect hand.

I once went all in and got 3 callers - on like the 3rd hand - so I was at about 6,000 in chips already.

Double up again like 10 minutes later- took a break, showered, ate breakfast, ran an errand, let my wife play for a while, and came back.

think I took a couple more big pots - was sitting in a good position, took another break, came back later -

realized I might actually place with all this junk and finally started to play for real.

in other words - IT's a FREE ROLL - don't over analyzie it - people like me are in there for the fun of it, but don't get me wrong, play for real money and I won't do any of that same junk.

[hockey1]

Poker basics here guys. As you point out, QQ is a 70%+ favorite against A7. You'd have to be MASSIVELY better than everyone at the table to pass up that kind of +EV. Changing your play to "adjust" for the games you describe would be a huge mistake. It's really no more complicated than that.

[tadams]

I agree that playing them softly is a good idea, which is close to my idea of betting less chips preflop. However, if you bet too many chips, for some reason really bad players like to go all in. And I hate going all in before the flop against these players in a tournament. See my next post for the reason.

-Tom

[tadams]

Yes it may be a FREE tournament, meaning it was FREE to enter, however, some of these tournaments pay out big money. One example, are the freerolls to win a prize package to the WSOP or the WPT. You can win thousands of dollars for free. Therefore to me, it is well worth taking them very seriously and doing everything I can to win them.

-Tom

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Poker basics here guys. As you point out, QQ is a 70%+ favorite against A7. You'd have to be MASSIVELY better than everyone at the table to pass up that kind of +EV. Changing your play to "adjust" for the games you describe would be a huge mistake. It's really no more complicated than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

okay guys, hockey's post effectively ends the discussion...nothing to see here, go about your business.

Hockey, can I cut and paste this paragraph to reply to the next bozzo a week from now rants about his big hands losing and how should he adjust his play?

[tadams]

That is exactly my point. I _am_ massively better than 90% of the players and I think it may be worth passing on an all-in QQ preflop even if I knew he had A7.

Let me explain, let's say I knew that if I passed on this particular hand my chances of winning the tournament were 80%. So why then would I reduce my chances of winning the tournament to only 70% if I already knew I was going to win 80% of the time if I didn't play the hand.

The point is I think against such horrible players, your chances of winning the tournament go up a lot. Therefore, it may be correct to pass on an opportunity that would reduce your chances of winning the tournament.

The second point is that EV doesn't apply here. You don't win anything if you win the hand, you just get more chips. What do more chips do for you? They increase your chance of winning the tournament. So the only thing that really matters is winning the tournament. If playing the hand increases your chance to win the tournament then you should play it, otherwise you shouldn't. I am starting to believe that playing it actually decreases your chance to win the tournament and therefore I shouldn't risk my tournament on this one hand.

-Tom

[fnurt]

But you're not that good. No one is that good. Even if you're better than 80% of the players, that does not make you an 80% favorite, because it's still a game of chance. The mythical perfect tournament where you accumulate small pot after small pot without ever taking a chance of losing simply never happens.

[tadams]

Hey guys, thanks for all your feedback so far, it has really made me think about how to play my hand under such extreme circumstances. I've actually been able to come up with a more precise question. So I feel like we're making progress toward the best way to play the hand. I know. I know. A lot of you are saying we already know the best way to play the hand. I haven't given up on you. I just want to know why it's the best play and that the alternative plays aren't better. So I am trying to weigh the merits of playing the hand each way.

If I go all in, there is a 70% chance I will double my stack size and increase my chances of winning the tournament. The amount my chances increase is how much doubling my stack size will increase my chances. There is a 30% chance I will lose my stack which decreases my chances of winning the tournament to 0%.

If I fold, there is a 30% chance I've increased my chances of winning the tournament by my current stack size, since I would have lost had I gone all-in. However, there is a 70% chance I have decreased my chances of winning the tournament by not playing the hand. I've decreased my chances by the amount doubling my stack size would have increased my chances.

For the purposes of this analysis assume doubling my stack size increases my chances of winning the tournament by 5%. I have no idea if it is this high and the amount will vary depending on many factors, the most important of which is probably my new stack size in relation to everyone else's stack size. In addition, assume my chances of winning the tournament with my current stack size is X%.

So in the first case, 70% of the time I will win the tournament X+5% and 30% of the time I will win the tournament X-X% or 0%. Therefore, I will win the tournament .7X + 3.5%.

In the second case, 30% of the time I will win the tournament X% of the time and 70% of the time I will win the tournament X-5% of the time. Therefore, I will win the tournament .3X% + .7X% - 3.5% = X - 3.5%.

So if .7X + 3.5% > X - 3.5%, you have increased your chances of winning the tournament. When is this true?
When .3X < 7 or X < 23.33. So if your chances of winning the tournament are less than 23.33% with your current stack size you should definitely go all in assuming you increase your chances of winning the tournament by 5% when you double your stack size.

Now we can argue about whether it is possible to have better than a 23.33% chance to win a freeroll tournament and whether you can increase your chances of winning 5% by doubling your stack size.

To answer the second question, let's look at doubling your stack size 20 times giving you over a 100% chance of winning the tournament. 2^20 * 1500 = 1,572,864,000 so if you doubled your stack 20 times you would have 1,572,864,000 chips. That is way more chips than there are in the tournament. So let's work backwards. If there are 4000 players in the tournament there are 6,000,000 chips. It turns out that 2^12 = 4096 * 1500 = 6,144,000, which is about the number of chips in the tournament. So when you win the tournament you will have doubled your chips 12 times. So everytime you double you increase your chances by about 8.3%. This assumes that doubling increases your chances of winning the same percentage every time you double. This is not necessarily the case, but it does provide us with some rough numbers.

Have fun with these numbers. If anyone wants to post regarding whether it is possible to have better than a 23.33% chance to win a freeroll tournament I would be interested in reading it. I might "work some numbers" later to argue whether it is or is not possible.

Thanks again for all your posts.

-Tom

[Jdanz]

if you win the first coin flip decision at 7/3 you have twice as many chips, that's the point you're missing, meaning every double up you make, makes it less likely you'll bust on the next all-in. So you want to get all your chips in, because if you win that all in, you'll also be less likely to be busted later, and less likely to have your all-ins called.

-JDanz

[Jdanz]

jonny chan doesn't have that sort of advantage, neither do i, neither do you, it's irrevlevant because regarless of skill there's still a lot of luck. You can't really pass up something that puts luck that far in your favor.

-JDanz

[kamelion44]

I'd like to see your results if you pass up EV like that. You simply can't do this in a tournament. You won't get enough EV situations greater than 70% and get the guys to pay you off before your stack dwindles away.