Fold here?

[durron597]

The situation:

You are sitting 4 handed Button with T2500 and 99. There is a big stack with about T5300 who has been a pretty big bully, but is a decent player in the SB. BB also has a big stack, he is definitely the best player of your three opponents, very tight, just the right amount of aggression. He has about T5500. UTG is a loose, terrible player that has gotten lucky to make it this far and has about T1700. Blinds are T100/T200.

UTG limps, hero raises to T550, SB pushes in, BB folds, UTG calls. What do you do?

Range of hands:
SB: ATo+, KQs, maybe KQo, maybe KJ but probably not, 99-AA
UTG: QJ, K8+, A6+, any PP

Prize structure: This is a 6+1 satellite to a 50+4 buyin MTT. 1st place gets the seat, 2nd gets another entry to the sattelite.

Do you call? Do you raise a different amount preflop to begin with?

[durron597]

I'll give this one bump. I thought that this was an interesting situation because it doesn't payout like a normal SnG. In a real SnG, this is obviously a clear fold, but since it's winner take all I'm not sure.

[Mr. D]

whats a "bump"? Is that posting a reply to get the thred back at the top of the list?

[cokehead]

yup thats what a bump is

[Jman28]

I think you have a really close call. In a normal payout structure, easy fold. But here, I know you're thinking about taking down that pot and how good your chances to win become after.

I think you call here. The UTG guy, you can't worry about because he could have anything. However, when you look at the hands that SB would push with here, the odds of catching the overpair is much less likely than the two overcards. I like to gamble short handed. Id call this and hope to be up against a double AK.

[durron597]

Well, worst case scenario is that I'm up against at least one pocket pair, or 4 distinct overcards.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=424654
pokenum -h 9d 9s - ah qd - ks jc
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9d 449269 32.78 917843 66.96 3642 0.27 0.329
Qd Ah 501457 36.58 865655 63.15 3642 0.27 0.367
Ks Jc 416386 30.38 950726 69.36 3642 0.27 0.305

Or one overpair:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=424659
pokenum -h 9d 9s - qh qd - as jc
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9d 239511 17.47 1127425 82.25 3818 0.28 0.176
Qd Qh 791735 57.76 575201 41.96 3818 0.28 0.579
As Jc 335690 24.49 1031246 75.23 3818 0.28 0.246

I feel like the call here is extremely borderline. Anyone else care to express an opinion before I post results?

[Martin Aigner]

Durron,

I don´t like your raise to 550. Blinds 100/200 and one caller already means that the raise should be something in the area of 800-900. If you had raised this high I´d call the reraise. In your stiuatoin I wouldn´t call. You still have enough left to play and chances are too high that you are up against an overpair or a 50/50.

Best regards

Martin Aigner

[unfrgvn]

I don't think I would disregard UTG here. He limped for 200 then called off T1500. It's not like he was pot committed after limping. Thats exactly how I would play Aces UTG against 3 aggressive opponets. I would have folded.

[RavenJackson]

Don't keep us in suspense.

[NegativeEV]

I believe your "twodimes" statistical method is the right way to look at this question. You are only ~ 30% or ~ 20% to take this pot down if you are up against either of these worst case (yet very likely) scenarios. If you are equal to or better than your competition you should avoid a ~ 30% option here. Even if you do get lucky and take this down, you are still not a guarantee to win, so not worth the gamble IMO. My thought process is: 1.) The most likely scenerio gives me a less than 50% chance of winning this pot (i.e. either of the scenerios you described or even being up against AK & AQ or the like). 2.) The best case scenerio (i.e. up against two AK's or a smaller PP and two overcards) still puts me at or near 50% to take this down. Why take these odds unless the blinds are forcing you to?

[durron597]

That might be how YOU would play Aces, but this is not you. I'm not saying he can't have Aces, but the guy was so terrible he really could have had the range of hands that I put him on. You lose a lot of equity if you assume that bad players play exactly the same way you would.

[durron597]

The answer to your question is that I wanted to win the damn thing. With T15000 on the table, even calling and winning this pot I would still only make it up to T7000 or so. Against four distinct overcards it's borderline: 32% to win the hand and 45% to win the tourney with 7000/15000 chips is about 15% to win overall. Against an overpair it's worse to make the call, and against one matching overcard:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=425066
pokenum -h 9d 9s - kh jd - as jc
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9d 614492 44.83 752192 54.87 4070 0.30 0.449
Jd Kh 283851 20.71 1070744 78.11 16159 1.18 0.212
As Jc 456252 33.28 898343 65.54 16159 1.18 0.33

I'm .45 * .45 or about 20% to win the whole tourney. If they have the same hand (unlikely), it's even better. But these two scenarios are less likely, since they have to have a card that matches.

Anyone with a strong mathematical background (eastbay, AleoMagus, etc.) care to take a crack at this one?

[unfrgvn]

[ QUOTE ]
That might be how YOU would play Aces, but this is not you. I'm not saying he can't have Aces, but the guy was so terrible he really could have had the range of hands that I put him on. You lose a lot of equity if you assume that bad players play exactly the same way you would.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do try to make allowances based on what I've seen from a player and obviously you got to watch him play so I'm not really arguing with you. I could see the range of hands you listed if he had pushed but after a raise and a reraise he would be terrible indeed if he called with something as bad as pocket 5's or A 4. But I have seen people do it. I still fold.