Hand #2 - Set under fire $50 NL Party

[JrJordan]

Sets were just not falling my way last night. This one, however was particularly interesting. Unfortunately, no real read on this guy, assume typical loose passive PPer.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (8 handed)

Button ($46.85)
Hero ($49.60)
BB ($46)
UTG ($47.30)
UTG+1 ($44.35)
MP1 ($53.05)
MP2 ($18.50)
CO ($55.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button calls $1, Hero completes, BB checks.

<font color="blue"> Only three of us to the flop. If I was on the button or BB, I would most likely raise with the pair and try to take the pot down there. With awful SB position though, I decide to check it down and see what I can do. </font>

Flop: ($3) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, BB folds, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to $6</font>, Hero calls $3.

<font color="blue"> Bottom set on a monochrome board out of position, not my idea of a good time. My pot sized bet faces resistance from the button with a minraise. I'm honestly not quite sure what to make of the minraise. It could be a position raise to see where he stands. Perhaps he has a big diamond. I doubt he has something like KQ because he would want to raise larger to protect is very vulnerable hand. My two choices here are to fight back with a strong reraise on the flop, or see a cheap turn and go from there. I choose the latter. </font>

Turn: ($15) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets $10</font>, Hero folds.

<font color="blue"> Definitely not the card I want to see. Any big diamond or made flush has me beat with one card to the boat. I was planning to check/raise any non diamond turn, and fold to a reraise. The board's 4 flush, combined with the button's previous action makes it pretty likely that I'm beat. I check and fold when he doesn't give me odds to go for the boat. </font>

Final Pot: $25

So did I play the hand weak tight when I was ahead, or did I lose the minimum with a very strong second best hand?

[Wayfare]

I think your play was correct with these stacks. With 100 BB stacks you can call with implied odds on your river boat (22% of the time I believe). However, bottom set is drawing almost dead against better set, and therefore you have some reverse implied odds to deal with too (although they aren't that significant).

[cornell2005]

standard play throughout

[dtbog]

Not much you can do here, I'd have played it the same way. I'm glad you didn't reraise on the flop -- there wasn't enough money in the pot for such a risky play in an unraised pot, IMO.

[schwza]

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standard play throughout

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i think i would have called the turn. it's pretty unlikely this guy is betting the turn like this with a set, as he'd rather take the free card. if the board pairs and villain has the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, which i think is pretty likely, hero probably gets his stack. if it turns out to be set over set, so be it.

[JrJordan]

I don't think the implied odds nearly cover for the deficit in the immediate pot odds. The $10 bet is giving me 2.5:1 right now. I have 10 outs to get the full boat. ASSUMING I'm not up against a big set, my chance to draw the boat is about 22%, or around 4.5:1. This means I must make $20 from him on the river to make this worthwhile. The button only has $30 left, so I basically have to be able to put him all in to profit in the long run. If he has the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, then yes I'll probably get his stack. If he has the J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, I'm not so sure. This becomes much harder as well considering I am out of position to get the money. You must also consider the times I make the boat and LOSE to a bigger one. The odds just aren't there to pull it off, so the fold on the turn seems correct.

My bigger issue was what to do on turn. It seems many of you are in agreement that he's giving me good odds to draw on the turn with that minraise, so I should take it. Just curious though, what do you do if he raises much harder? Perhaps to $10-12? I'd be a big dog to a higher set, but only slightly behind a made flush. Any draw I'd still be ahead, so I'd likely push considering the already large pot at that point. What do you think?

[schwza]

you're not doing the implied odds quite correctly. you're getting 2.5:1 to call right now, and you're 3.7:1 to hit (you said 4.5:1; it's about 1/4.5, which is 3.5:1, or more precisely, 3.7:1). so your EV when the board pairs has to be whatever is in the pot + 1.2 x the bet = pot + 12.

there's also a (slight) chance that the villain has a hand like KQ with no diamond and you'll win the pot when the river's checked through.

this would be a pretty marginal call, i agree, but i think it's slightly profitable. you're certainly not giving up much by folding. one tiny little bonus is that if the villain has a set, that's two fewer cards that will make you a boat, saving you a little money.

i think that if he makes a bigger raise on the flop, i'd push. you're a 2:1 dog to a made flush, but i think there's folding equity as well as a decent chance he has a pair + 1 diamond or a smaller made hand.

pokenum -h 8d 9d - 3c 3s -- 4d 3d kd
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kd 4d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 8d 649 65.56 341 34.44 0 0.00 0.656
3s 3c 341 34.44 649 65.56 0 0.00 0.344

[JrJordan]

Man, I really did botch those implied odds. Bit of a difference between 1 in 4.5 and 1 to 4.5. Slight correction on your side as well. If he has a higher set, I lose not only those 2 outs for his pocket pair, but every other card that makes a full house because he will have a bigger one. I'd be drawing to one out for the quads.

I keep coming back now to what exactly could you minraise in this situation? Some made flush like 910s would bet more than this because he'd be afraid of another diamond falling and me staying with a higher one. A set would reraise it harder as well, for the same odds for the draw reason. A made A high would simple smooth call and hit later on the turn, but we know he doesn't have the nuts on the flop because the A falls on the turn. Assuming he's a half decent player (big assumption considering I'm playing $50 NL Party), what the hell does he have?

[Huskiez]

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I keep coming back now to what exactly could you minraise in this situation?

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Without knowing the turn, I would have guessed he had A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif X, trying to get two cards on the turn and river when you check to him on the turn and he can check right behind. But because the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif fell on the turn, he obviously does not have that. Like you said, he wouldn't have a vulnerable flush, as one should probably raise strong with a hand like that.

I would not put him on a set after the way he played the flop and turn.

My best guess is that he has K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif without the flush and was trying to see the turn or river for cheap. Or he had a made high flush (K or J high) and was trying to not scare you out of the hand.

This is a confusing one I think.

[cornell2005]

[ QUOTE ]
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standard play throughout

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i think i would have called the turn. it's pretty unlikely this guy is betting the turn like this with a set, as he'd rather take the free card. if the board pairs and villain has the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, which i think is pretty likely, hero probably gets his stack. if it turns out to be set over set, so be it.

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why are you talking about set over set? there are 4 diamonds on the board. really the only hand you can beat here that he would bet is a pure bluff. the stacks are too small to make this turn call in most cases, especially having to act first on the river