Hand #1 - River choice $50 NL Party

[JrJordan]

In EP/MP with AJs. This is one of those borderline hands for me which I'll play at a passive table, but drop quickly at an aggressive one. Obviously AJs can't take a lot of heat, so I was glad to get one caller from the UTG limper. No real reads on the individual, although the table itself has been very weak-passive. Preflop raise followed by a flop 3/4 pot bet is taking down most of the pots. To the hand...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (10 handed)

UTG+1 ($60.30)
UTG+2 ($49)
Hero ($65.58)
MP2 ($195.75)
MP3 ($39)
CO ($94.80)
Button ($74.63)
SB ($26)
BB ($35.07)
UTG ($58.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $3.

<font color="blue"> Gave an earlier description of the table above. That being said, is it legitimate to raise AJs from EP/MP? I am content playing this for a small pot, and am confident I can get out if I face a lot of resistance. This doesn't seme too unreasonable. </font>

Flop: ($9.50) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, UTG calls $7.

<font color="blue"> Got the flop I wanted. I come out for the typical 3/4 pot bet I've been using for both hits and misses. Seems pretty typical. </font>

Turn: ($23.50) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, UTG calls $12.

<font color="blue"> Another blank falls completing the rainbow. I have to imagine my hand is still good, but I'm not overly confident. A half pot bet seems reasonable here. Not quite sure what I'd to if he check raised here. I'd probably have to lay it down expecting AQ or a slowplayed set. I keep emphasizing to myself that AJ is a small pot hand. Any attempt by the villain to bump it up a notch most likely means he's got the goods and I need to lay it down. What do you guys think about the actual half pot bet, and the hypothetical checkraise? </font>

River: ($47.50) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero...

<font color="blue"> This is the main point of my post. I've emphasized a small pot strategy to this hand, yet there is still a significant chance I could extract some money. There's no apparent draw on the board that the villain could be going for, so it's obvious he has some sort of hand. Is he checking again, hoping to go for a checkraise, or has he been calling down with something along the lines of A9 or AT? Who value bets this river? </font>

I'll the results with some reasonings after a few responses. Thanks.

[Wayfare]

Check, so that when he wakes up with a set you will not pay him off.

Good luck Princeton buddy!

Elaboration: I might play AK the same way as the villan against an agressive opponent up until the river. If you are raising AJ and then betting on every street including the river with only one pair, I gather the rest of your play is pretty agressive too. I would not bet this, and after checking it back I would only think I am ahead here like 50% of the time. Since your hand cannot stomach any type of substantial reraise, you should check it back. You don't want to have the call the rest of your stack into a better hand, and also do not want to lay down a good hand to an all-in of less than half your remaining stack.

Actually, I think playing check/call with AK out of position is a great play, usually better than most players this level can manage.

Again, I hope you checked and YHIG.

[cornell2005]

flop good
turn is ok. you can bet this against poor and very poor opponents, and check/call it against better ones.
river: check is almost mandatory against all but the worst opponents. Think of all the hands you beat versus all the hands you lose to. Even if he has an Ace and a lower kicker than you, 4 of the 9 hands he could have bring him 2 pair. After you check, its usually a call, but sometimes a fold, depending on the bet amount and the opponent.

[Garland]

Do you have any read on your opponent? This would help.

It's almost a certainty that your opponent has a weaker A, and a small possibility he has something like AQ or AJ.

It's also my experience at this lower level that opponents don't like to check it on the river hoping for the chance to check-raise or trap to catch a bluff. They simply fear a check behind too much. If they somehow catch by the river, they are more likely to come to life and bet the river.

You almost certainly have a value bet on the river, and I would keep it "small" like the turn and bet around $23 to $25...something a weaker A can stomach to call.

If he does actually check-raise all-in, I don't think you can fold for the $10 more he has. Then you can make a little note on him as a tricky bastard to avoid...

Garland

[dtbog]

You mentioned that your 3/4 pot bets after a PFR take down a lot of pots, and I think that contributes to this situation significantly. A lot of players at this level seem to fall in love with decent starting hands that they think "should" beat someone who has been buying pots regularly. Wayfare mentioned the possibility of check-calling with AK, but that begs the question of why he would limp preflop with AK and then flat call a raise. (AK's a pretty hard hand to play out of position after the flop).

My best guess here is a weak ace or a low-to-mid pocket pair that the opponent has decided to call you down with because you've been buying a lot of pots. I'd still check behind -- I don't think it's worth the risk to value bet with no read. A4, 44, A8, 88 are very likely IMO.

[cornell2005]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have any read on your opponent? This would help.

It's almost a certainty that your opponent has a weaker A, and a small possibility he has something like AQ or AJ.

It's also my experience at this lower level that opponents don't like to check it on the river hoping for the chance to check-raise or trap to catch a bluff. They simply fear a check behind too much. If they somehow catch by the river, they are more likely to come to life and bet the river.

You almost certainly have a value bet on the river, and I would keep it "small" like the turn and bet around $23 to $25...something a weaker A can stomach to call.

If he does actually check-raise all-in, I don't think you can fold for the $10 more he has. Then you can make a little note on him as a tricky bastard to avoid...

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]

even if he does have a weaker ace, and was playing loose on previous streets, 4 of the 9 posbble Ax hands he could have that have a kicker less than a J would now be a 2 pair. i think its foolish to bet the river unless you know he is super loose/bad

[dtbog]

BK - 666 posts! Congrats. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Anyhow, nice icon. I go to Cornell as well and that picture was in no less than 10 of my friends' dorm rooms last year. (It's much more impressive when it's 6 feet high and 4 feet wide)

-DB

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
even if he does have a weaker ace, and was playing loose on previous streets, 4 of the 9 posbble Ax hands he could have that have a kicker less than a J would now be a 2 pair. i think its foolish to bet the river unless you know he is super loose/bad

[/ QUOTE ]

The average Party low limit people will usually bet out (check-raise the turn) these two pair or set or whatever made hands. This is where the winning players make the most profit in No Limit, sacking up and value betting the river. Value bets are not designed to always win...in fact you can expect to lose a small percent percent of the time here and expect to make more in the long run. Again, at these limits and with no particular read on this opponent who has been passively calling down to the river, a value bet is a must.

Checking behind in fear here in this situation is very weak tight in my opinion.

Garland

[schwza]

i don't play a lot of 10-player, but i would expect this should be a limp here. a lot of your equity comes from making the nut flush, and when that happens you want to earn many times your initial investment. also, you'll have to fold to a substantial reraise, whereas if you limp you can call a raise, especially from the blinds (IMO).

flop is good.

i would bet a little more on the turn. the only reason is that i'd fear that somebody might recognize the small bet as a borderline hand and push. also, i still think you're ahead, so it's good to get some extra $ into the pot.

i would check behind on the river. he doesn't have enough chips that you can make a decent bet and fold to a push, and you're not going to be happy at all about doubling him through with TP and a J kicker.

[JrJordan]

Thanks for the responses everyone. I followed everyone's advice and just checked on the river. I can't imagine anyone would stay with me this long with just an Ax hand. Perhaps A3s or A5s looking for their gutshot, but neither of these would call any river bet after their draw misses. Well, it turns out some players are that bad. I check down and he flips over A7o and MHIG. Ni han!!!

I just wanted to see if this line of thinking on the river was correct. I make this river check as well with AK, or if I had a high overpair on a lower board (AA on a K high board or something like that). Most legitimate players than call to the river are either slowplaying something, or just missed their draw and won't put any more money in anyway. The checkdown seems to be the best route.