EvlG
07-29-2004, 06:06 AM
Everyone's favorite pocket pair... /images/graemlins/smirk.gif
Playing in 1/2 NL Live Game over the weekend. Haven't played with anyone at the table before, its been about 3 hours into the session. Reads at this point are that the table is very passive, especially preflop, and I felt they were generally not strong players.
Here is the hand:
Preflop, 1/2 NL
UTG calls, EP1 calls, folds to me in LP. I raise to $10 with JJ. SB (Villain) calls, BB calls, UTG calls, EP1 calls.
Flop ($50)
89T rainbow
Everyone checks to me, I bet $30, SB goes allin for $109 ($79 more to me). BB thinks a bit and folds reluctantly, everyone else folds to me. I have about $130 left.
I thought a long time about this one - I potentially had a lot of outs, but it was very dependent on what the guy had. Given the bet, I am most worried about these hands: JQ, 7J, 67, TT, 99, 88, T9, T8, 98 which makes straights, sets, or 2 pairs. I'm not worried about overpairs because I felt the guy would reraise me preflop.
If he had 2 pair, I have 13 outs (set, open-ended straight, and counterfeiting him by pairing the board on turn+river or pairing the card that didn't make his 2 pair) that gives me 1.08 to 1 odds, which would be an easy call. If he had a set, I have 10 outs (since the 2 pair outs are no longer good of course) for 1.6 to 1, still an easy call. HOWEVER, if he had a straight, I was in trouble, since 7J or 67 gave me 3 outs to win and 2 outs to tie (collectively 3.93 to 1) , and JQ gave me just 2 outs to tie (10.9 to 1). So of the 9 hands I fear, 6 cases are good calls with good odds, and 3 cases are disasters. I eventually decided to call, but wasn't 100% comfortable with it at the time.
What do you consider in this situation to decide to call or fold?
Looking back on it, I called because my instict told me that most of the time enough of my outs are good. Thinking about that instict, I can caluclate some odds if I assume each hand is equally likely since he is a blind. Those odds are 1/9 * 8.4% + 2/9 * 20.3% + 3/9 * 38.4% + 3/9 * 48.1% = about 34.27%, or 1.92 to 1 which makes it a good call. So in that sense, my instict was right. Is this the right way to look at it? And how could I ever possibly approximate that in the heat of the moment at the table instead of just relying on instincts?
Any thoughts, suggestions, or comments are definitely appreciated!
Playing in 1/2 NL Live Game over the weekend. Haven't played with anyone at the table before, its been about 3 hours into the session. Reads at this point are that the table is very passive, especially preflop, and I felt they were generally not strong players.
Here is the hand:
Preflop, 1/2 NL
UTG calls, EP1 calls, folds to me in LP. I raise to $10 with JJ. SB (Villain) calls, BB calls, UTG calls, EP1 calls.
Flop ($50)
89T rainbow
Everyone checks to me, I bet $30, SB goes allin for $109 ($79 more to me). BB thinks a bit and folds reluctantly, everyone else folds to me. I have about $130 left.
I thought a long time about this one - I potentially had a lot of outs, but it was very dependent on what the guy had. Given the bet, I am most worried about these hands: JQ, 7J, 67, TT, 99, 88, T9, T8, 98 which makes straights, sets, or 2 pairs. I'm not worried about overpairs because I felt the guy would reraise me preflop.
If he had 2 pair, I have 13 outs (set, open-ended straight, and counterfeiting him by pairing the board on turn+river or pairing the card that didn't make his 2 pair) that gives me 1.08 to 1 odds, which would be an easy call. If he had a set, I have 10 outs (since the 2 pair outs are no longer good of course) for 1.6 to 1, still an easy call. HOWEVER, if he had a straight, I was in trouble, since 7J or 67 gave me 3 outs to win and 2 outs to tie (collectively 3.93 to 1) , and JQ gave me just 2 outs to tie (10.9 to 1). So of the 9 hands I fear, 6 cases are good calls with good odds, and 3 cases are disasters. I eventually decided to call, but wasn't 100% comfortable with it at the time.
What do you consider in this situation to decide to call or fold?
Looking back on it, I called because my instict told me that most of the time enough of my outs are good. Thinking about that instict, I can caluclate some odds if I assume each hand is equally likely since he is a blind. Those odds are 1/9 * 8.4% + 2/9 * 20.3% + 3/9 * 38.4% + 3/9 * 48.1% = about 34.27%, or 1.92 to 1 which makes it a good call. So in that sense, my instict was right. Is this the right way to look at it? And how could I ever possibly approximate that in the heat of the moment at the table instead of just relying on instincts?
Any thoughts, suggestions, or comments are definitely appreciated!