Fold or Push?

[oblisk]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (4 handed)

UTG (t3902)
Button (t105)
SB (t2548)
Hero (t1445)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">SB raises to t350</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t1445 (All-In)</font>, SB calls t1095.

Flop: (t2890) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t2890) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2890) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2890

Up to this point the SB had always been agressive, and would usually raise the pot for steals. The one time i saw him with ace's he min raised. Is going over the top the play here, or should i fold to the money and then try to move for first (note AKo was the best hand i'd seen in like 2 hours) after a spot in the money.

[filsho]

I know that TPFAP says that the time for all-ins from AK is when your stack is about 2-5x the BB. With that idea in my head, I still understand your move. If this is a big stack stealing with any face card, you have him beat pretty well PF. If he has a PP, you're obviously a toss up. Personally, I re-raise to about 7 or 8 hundred. I don't know if that's correct or not, but it's enough to make a bluff fold or maybe just call (I think..but that's still 4:1, good odds..hmm). If he stays in and bets on that flop, you can fold and take your 3rd place money after the blinds beat up on the short stack. I might push in on the flop if it's checked, but yeah, fold to a bet. May seem like the wuss thing to do, especially since AK wins a lot of hands on the turn or river, but that's how I'd do it. I'm sure I'll learn from this thread too as others reply.

[edge]

Well, the button is sitting with 100 chips. That makes this hand a lot tougher than it would be--otherwise, I push every time.

I'd probably push or fold depending on how likely SB is to call. If I think he'll call the reraise, I'd like to say that I would fold, since AKo isn't a huge favorite over any hand, unless it's a dominated one. Not sure I could bring myself to fold AKo 4-handed, but I think it's the right move unless SB will fold most of the time.

[poboys]

Depends on your goal. If you want to win the tourny, you have to push. The cost is that, if you lose you go out on the bubble and let someone with T100 collect $20.

I can see the argument for playing it safe and folding, and trying to put pressure on the short stack this orbit.

Smart players notice this situation as well. They believe that you'll fold until you are in the money, since you don't want to go out with someone who is so short stack, so they'll pick on you.

Me, I'd push everytime. Doubling up gives me a much better chance to finish first.

[NegativeEV]

Funny, this is similar in nature to a post I made an hour ago, although different enough to be a clear cut decision in my mind. I think this is a push from your position unless you have a VERY strong reason to believe that the SB will call. My thoughts on why this is an easy push:

1.) You have folding equity here since the SB is not pot comitted and your raise is large enough to hurt SB if he calls and loses.

2.) If the FE fails and you get a call you are a favorite against most hands and a huge favorite against any unpaired Ace or King.

3.) Your goal is first. Picking up the T350 raise with your all-in gives you a much better path to first as your chip stack will then allow for a few 3xBB buy attempts before you are in "all-in or fold" mode.

All that being said, this is a fold if you are virtually certain that the SB will call. You want to avoid KNOWN coin flips at this point and the folding equity is what makes this an easy push.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

With the button so close to gone, I think you are better off folding if you think the SB might call you. That having been said, there's a good chance I'd push anyway.

[adanthar]

In this position, solely because of the button's low stack, I think I might just call and move in on any pair or a semi-safe flop with lots of outs.

It may be worse than pushing EV-wise, but 350 chips isn't a crippling amount to invest for me here and, considering the low blinds, I can still outplay the others for first relatively easily with just a little luck.

In literally any other situation (if the button has 300-400+ chips) this is an autopush for me.

[Jman28]

I read this and thought to myself, 'easy push'. Then I looked back and saw the small stack.

Yeah, while you want 1st, and you probably are favored, I think this is a fold. With a fold, you are almost guarenteed money. And It's not like you are definitely 3rd. You could easily double up later on and compete.

I know Sklansky could do some calculations on this with the payout structure and expected value similar to his calculations in TPFAP with 3 left. I think folding would come out ahead.