Is this mistake as bad as I think it was?

[uw_madtown]

Free NLHE tourney, part of a big local promotion. Basically they give out gift certificates and stuff for doing well in the nightly tourneys -- each nightly winner is then invited to a championship match at the end of August, grand prize is a trip for 2 to Las Vegas. Each nightly tourney is a field of 100, and the final tourney is a field of 100 winners. You can enter as many nightly tourneys as you want (if you win more than one, you get extra chips in the championship). Start with 10k in tourney chips. It's an ante structure. You must ante. You also must bet/call at least an ante sized bet pre-flop to play -- no checking allowed until after the flop.

Since it's a free tourney, it's ULTRA loose aggressive early on. Then it seems to tighten up REAL hard once about 30-40 people are knocked out and the blinds go up to 500.

About an hour and a half into the tourney, antes are at 500 and will double to 1000 in about 15 minutes. I've been up and down all over, playing quite tightly. An attempt to steal a pot with Q2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif in MP with a 3k bet is followed by a reraise all-in from a bigger stack and a call by ANOTHER big stack. I fold, leaving me with about 3500 in chips. I go all-in with A7o and get no callers shortly after that, and then go all-in with 99 and get called by some garbage suited hand, MHIG to double me back roughly to 11k.

Several hands later, I'm down to 9k. We're short-handed at 5 people. I open limp with KT /images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2 limp behind, then a new guy at the table raises 3k.

This is definitely a fold or all-in call. My immediate thoughts are Ax offsuit or small pockets. He's trying to push the limpers out. I need to pick up a pot before the blinds go up again, or I'll be in real bad shape quite quickly. I go all-in, thinking that there's good enough odds that he'll fold or it'll be a coinflip that it's worth getting my money in now.

He calls with 66. Flop comes AAxAx and I'm out.

I know that's an all-in or fold situation, but I'm wondering if I should fold that more often than going all-in.

- UW

[Che]

uw_madtown-

[ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering if I should fold that more often than going all-in.


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1. Crazy things happen, but there aren't many times that you'll catch someone raising with less than KTs.
2. The raiser is last to act after you push, so he knows he's getting 2:1 on the call headsup. Hard to imagine him liking his hand enough to raise 3 limpers but not enough to call getting 2:1. IMHO your folding equity is ~0.

So, unless the pot odds (assuming that the raiser will call) justify chasing, it's an easy fold. Even if the odds do justify chasing, I would still fold if the push was only slightly +EV. I'm a little unclear about the blinds/antes in this scenario, but it's hard for me to imagine that you were getting anywhere near the odds you would need here.

BTW I would have made the push-or-fold decision the second I first saw my hand. In early position, even at a five-handed table, I wouldn't limp with KTs. Raise it to steal the blinds or get out - with get out being a heavy favorite.

Later,
Che

[gergery]

I think the ante/blind was 1k at that point with your stack at 9k, right? If so, it's allin or fold, and I think its table dependent and your image dependent. I probably fold, but pushing in is ok, imho.

If the ante/blind was still 500, then i probably don't want to risk all my chips, and I'll raise 2.8xbb or so and fold to reraise.

--G

[Mawnstroe]

In short, yes, it was a bad mistake. Sorry.

KTs isn't even a decent all-in hand to begin with, regardless of whether you're short handed or not, IMHO.

There are so many hands that can beat you, even short-handed (not heads up, of course).

It seems that you lost your patience b/c of your chip stack and blinds. If there's one thing I see over and over again in multi-table tourneys it's short stacks going maniac and losing it on plays they wouldn't make in a million years with a large stack.

On top of it all, when you're in a short-stack position, it's the time to tighten up and play LESS hands, IMHO. No one seems to believe a short stack when they go all-in, so why not take advantage of this poor assumption on their part and double or triple up with AA, KK, QQ or AKs? As the saying goes, all you need to be in is "a chip and a chair".

That's my two cents. And by the way...I've been there and done that almost exact same move, so I'm not trying to be condescending or anything. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Good luck!

[uw_madtown]

[ QUOTE ]
In short, yes, it was a bad mistake. Sorry.

KTs isn't even a decent all-in hand to begin with, regardless of whether you're short handed or not, IMHO.

There are so many hands that can beat you, even short-handed (not heads up, of course).

It seems that you lost your patience b/c of your chip stack and blinds. If there's one thing I see over and over again in multi-table tourneys it's short stacks going maniac and losing it on plays they wouldn't make in a million years with a large stack.

On top of it all, when you're in a short-stack position, it's the time to tighten up and play LESS hands, IMHO. No one seems to believe a short stack when they go all-in, so why not take advantage of this poor assumption on their part and double or triple up with AA, KK, QQ or AKs? As the saying goes, all you need to be in is "a chip and a chair".

That's my two cents. And by the way...I've been there and done that almost exact same move, so I'm not trying to be condescending or anything. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Good luck!

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Keep in mind that it is an ANTE structure, and was about to go up to 1k, either after this hand or the following hand. Also keep in mind that you must bet/call at least an ante-sized bet to see a flop (no checking) so to play a hand, I would very very soon be investing at least 2k. The odds of picking up a much better hand within 9 hands is not too good -- and if I get anted down to even just 5k, I'm still not in good shape even after a double up.

After thinking about it MORE, I think it was a better move than I originally thought. If I fold, I get to see 9 more hands before being completely anted off -- obviously only about 3-4 more hands before I'm in deep trouble. I put him on Ax or small pocket pair. Someone correct my math, but I'm roughly 30-35% against Ax and about 45% against small pockets, right?

I also see him folding Ax or suited Kx here quite often.

I guess I'm asking whether this is a good move to make if I know my read of Ax/small PP is absolutely correct. Obviously he could have AK/AA/KK here, but I didn't read him for that, I read him for Ax or small pockets -- and was correct. So imagine if he turns up his hand after raising, so I know what I'm facing. Is this still a bad move if I know I'm facing a small pocket pair?

- UW

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been up and down all over, playing quite tightly. An attempt to steal a pot with Q2 in MP with a 3k bet is followed by a reraise all-in from a bigger stack and a call by ANOTHER big stack. I fold, leaving me with about 3500 in chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this hand is much, much worse. You bet almost 1/2 your stack on a steal, then fold? Why not just push if you want to steal, or raise much less than half your stack. The KTs hand was pretty bad, this one was really bad...

[SeaEagle]

I think your odds calcs are correct, but your assessment of your situation isn't.

You say you'll either be a small underdog(45%) or a medium underdog (33%). But that would be true with almost any non-totally crap cards (97o has almost identical odds, for instance). You might not get better cards than your KTs, but you'll certainly see cards that are just as playable in this situation.

It's not better cards that you need - it's a better situation. If you're truly as desperate as you think you are, then maybe this is the best situation that you'll see. But I think a spot where I'm surely an underdog if anybody calls, and I have 3 possible callers, and one of them has shown strength and is getting the pot odds to call with almost anything he would raise with is, well, I think you'll find a better situation within the next hand or two.

[gergery]

1. You are much better than that vs. Ax. More like 46% vs. A4o for example (see twodimes)
2. I don’t see either Ax or small PP folding to your shortstack ever with that much money in the pot now.
3. If your read is absolutely correct, then you are an underdog. If there is 2.5k in ante’s plus your .5 and his 3k, then its risking 8k to win 6k+8k, so clearly EV+ to push, but I’d expect a call every single time and you will be a slight underdog. Better might be stop and go to flat call then push any flop. But if you’ll be anted down each hand and knocked out within ~8 hands or so, then you don’t have a lot of choice.
4. As I understand the situation and ante’s better, I think this is clear preflop push given how dire your ante/stack situation is.