Another World Class Player Rant

[Goodie]

John Juanda

I've seen him play many different times and have for the most part been thouroughly impressed by how he handles himself at the table and how he plays.

However, I have to question a play he made in the stud event last night, where he called a fifth street bet with only a pair of fives, no overcards, and no draw.. I really don't think this can be right against an early (although very aggresive) raiser that could have had anything but is more likely than normal to have a real hand.

I know we don't see the whole tourney and see past hands, but in stud, I can't imagine this matters quite as much as in no limit hold em.

What does everyone else think?

Peace

Goodie

[jwvdcw]

I'm no stud expert by any means, but it seemed as if there were a lot of calls with average pairs on 4th or 5th street last night.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
John Juanda
he called a fifth street bet with only a pair of fives, no overcards, and no draw.
.
What does everyone else think?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I remember correctly, I think Juanda was calling with the best hand at the time.

[ohgeetee]

I think he was too, then on 5th he got a straight draw and the overcard showed up, and basically admitted he had to call it down now because the pot was so large. Not 100% sure on the higher pair coming after he made the 5th street bet but I think it did.

[Goodie]

Having the best hand in this situation actually made no difference, because even if Marcel had nothing (which he did), that nothing could still be a significant favorite over your hand (which it was).

Now factor that in with the fact that Marcel could very easily have a real hand in that spot, and I think it has to be a clear fold.

Dynasty, as you surely know, having the best hand at the moment doesn't always mean that you should call or raise. Folding is often the best option, as I think it is here.

Peace

Goodie

[FeliciaLee]

I didn't play in this event. I wasn't feeling so well the day before (naturally I was going to try to win my way in via satellite), so we didn't drive up to Vegas. I'm sorry I missed it.

Last night I was watching some of the broadcast in the cardroom while playing a tourney. So anything I comment on will be in general terms, as I obviously didn't see and hear the whole thing.

Many of these players are primarily NLHE tourney pros. Frangos is pretty loose and very aggressive. He was at my Razz table at the series, and would regularly call a completion with a paint doorcard. Even if he bricked on fourth and/or fifth, sometimes he would continue to call bets, or bet himself. It was a bizarre strategy, for Razz, but he did get a ton of action when he had a pat hand, so it worked for him, in some ways.

Was Juanda a short stack with the fives? If so, I can see where he would choose this hand to make a move. Against loose players who will play non-paired hands, he might have thought this was the time to make a stand. After all, I'm sure he wanted to win the tourney, not just cash (winning would give him a payout 7x greater than sixth place).

Tournament strategy is so much different from cash game strategy, especially when it is down to the last four players or so. This was a $5000 buy-in event, and the make-up of that final table were considerably different from some of the other Stud final tables (Forrest, Violette, lots of "old-school" Stud pros).

Most of these guys are younger and consider NLHE their "A" game. They play a different way than Stud tourney pros.

Perhaps changing the structure a bit this year also changed the table dynamics. Stud experts were not there, NLHE pros dominated the final table.

Felicia /images/graemlins/smile.gif
www.felicialee.net (http://www.felicialee.net)

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Having the best hand in this situation actually made no difference, because even if Marcel had nothing (which he did), that nothing could still be a significant favorite over your hand (which it was).

[/ QUOTE ]

Juanda's opponent was not a significant favorite on 5th street with his no-pair hand. I think the percentages shown were within the 50/50 to 55/45 range.

You don't fold just because you're beat or because your opponent has better pot equity.

[ QUOTE ]
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=421618
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s as ks qs js 9d - 2c 2h 4d 6c 8h
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose EV
As Ks Qs Js 9d 347747 69.55 152253 30.45 0.695
6c 2c 4d 8h 2h 152253 30.45 347747 69.55 0.305

[/ QUOTE ]

Even in this extreme situation, it would be a mistake the fold the one pair hand which is "behind". The pot would be large enough to see sixth street.

[Goodie]

First of all, I'll check again tonight, but I'm almost positive that the percentages were more in the 60/40 range, and I think it was even worse than that.

Secondly, this is a tournament, Dynasty, and in a tournament, your chips are much more valuable. Juanda got himself into a position where he was a significant underdog for basicly all of his money. This is not good poker.

In a ring game, I can see your point, but tournament poker is a different animal.

Peace

Goodie

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Secondly, this is a tournament, Dynasty, and in a tournament, your chips are much more valuable. Juanda got himself into a position where he was a significant underdog for basicly all of his money. This is not good poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

He was also relatively shortstacked, and when shortstacked you can't really afford to pass up marginally +EV plays.

[Duke]

So you're wondering about a suspect call from a guy with the best hand who gets all his money in with a 7 or an 8 high every other time he's on TV in No Limit tourneys.

What was the point of this thread again?

~D