When do you take a stab with AK?

[durron597]

Very general question. Say you raise preflop with AK, but the blinds are not deep enough for allin or fold. Under what circumstances do you take a stab at a flop of undercards? How much do you bet?

[Tosh]

I know its a general question but it depends so much on all the circumstances. Post a few examples, its better than way.

[durron597]

Alright. This is the hand I busted out of the PokerRoom $10000 guaranteed today. I don't have hand history because PokerRoom sucks that way.

Blinds are T50/T100, average stack is around 2k. I have a very tight table image, having only played 3 hands in twice that many orbits, haven't shown down once. Villian in hand is a loose calling station (bad player) but I've seen him lay down to big bets. He has about T4000, I have about T1700.

I wake up to A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif in the SB. EP Calling station limps, folded to me in the SB. I make it T350 to go, BB folds, EP calls.

Flop is 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Those 700 chips would look real nice in my stack right now, but I'm out of position so I bet 400. I know this is probably a bad play but I don't want to just pushin if he has the nuts (So is this a bad time for a stab I guess?) I figure since the board is scary I can get him to fold with such a small bet. Anyway, he thinks for a while and calls.

Turn is the K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. My plan on the flop is that if he didn't fold, I was going to shut it down with any A or K that wasn't diamonds, but since a K came, I pushin. He thinks for awhile and calls. Results later.

[durron597]

I swear AK has got to be one of my biggest losers. While I don't have PokerTracker (I play on PokerRoom which isn't compatible). When I bet out my TPTK, I almost never get a caller, or if I do it's because I'm behind. When I bet out on rags, I either take down the small pot or I lose enough from betting out that I don't make up for it. While I can't add up the numbers, my gut says it's probably a big loser for me.

Here's another example, I don't have the hand history, again. This is the hand that took me from a nice stack to near desperation in the 20+2 on PokerRoom last night.

I wake up to A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif UTG. Blinds are T30, I have about T3300 (still early). I raise to T150, two people in MP call, BB calls. I am the big stack in the hand. BB is a loose, bad player (in my estimation), I don't remember my reads on the other callers.

Flop comes 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif. BB bets T30 (He does that frequently), I raise to T500 (about the pot), both MP folds, BB calls. He has about T1100 or so left after making this call - so I cover him by T1500 or thereabouts.

Turn is the 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif. He checks, I put him on a big club and pushin. He calls. Results to come later if interested.

[ilya]

I think monotone-but-not-your-tone flops are a bad time to take an AK stab. I think that's true even when the flop cards are scattered, like J 6 2. But when there's also a straight draw out, I really think thrice before stabbing.
I also think that if you're gonna take a stab at a monotone flop, you need to make a hefty bet. There are just too many hands that can call a 1/2 pot one. But if you make a pot-sized bet or overbet you need a good 40%-50% chance of success....which you might have, but not by a large margin...not large enough to make it a good idea in a tournament, in my opinion.

So I guess it boils down to this....take a stab when there is no flush draw or obvious straight draw. The reason to do it then is that a smaller bet in relation to the pot can be just as effective as a bigger one when one/both of those draws is out. So, your pot-odds/chance-of-success ratio is better.

[sdplayerb]

When it is a non coordinated board with all cards 9 or less, I bet at it.
Many people call with JT to a real raise, and won't throw away top pair.

If it is a flush board, i check and bet the turn.

[durron597]

In that first hand, I KNEW for a FACT that my opponent would bet if checked to with any two cards. However, I didn't want to completely discount the possibility that he flopped top flush, so I thought pushing in was too risky.

My stack was too big for the 10xBB allin or fold mode preflop, but do I really have to checkfold that scary board? I feel like there has to be a way to play that board better, but I don't like push (risk of busting to a PP/A8any/Axs) and I don't like check (He will bet whether he has it or not and I will have to fold); I feel like every move is -EV /images/graemlins/frown.gif.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
When it is a non coordinated board with all cards 9 or less, I bet at it.
Many people call with JT to a real raise, and won't throw away top pair.


[/ QUOTE ]

I got burned today betting into a Q high raggedy board when against AQ. Do I have to give up the pot when it's Q high and I have AK?

[ QUOTE ]

If it is a flush board, i check and bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if you are up against an aggressive player who will bet whether he has it or not if checked to him?

[Potowame]

Well on big thing that stands out is these are Three to a flush and two or three cards that could make a str8. those arent very good times at all to get your chips in with TPTK. Especially when you have alot of loose players in the pot with you, Calling with any 2 suited small con. , ect. JMO

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]

My stack was too big for the 10xBB allin or fold mode preflop, but do I really have to checkfold that scary board? I feel like there has to be a way to play that board better, but I don't like push (risk of busting to a PP/A8any/Axs) and I don't like check (He will bet whether he has it or not and I will have to fold); I feel like every move is -EV /images/graemlins/frown.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he really will bet with any two cards after you check, perhaps check-raising all-in could be a play to consider.

[durron597]

You make a good point, but am I just supposed to checkfold AK out of position every time the board is scary? Half of me says "That sounds unfortunate but reasonable", and the other half of me is saying "That's weak tight; they miss often enough for your bet to scare them away..." Or maybe I should be judging my stabs based on the looseness of the opponent (stab when he's tighter) and less on the cards? I suppose I should just wait for a better opportunity to let LAGs give me their chips, since there will be so many...

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
When it is a non coordinated board with all cards 9 or less, I bet at it.
Many people call with JT to a real raise, and won't throw away top pair.

If it is a flush board, i check and bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

But also be careful of boards that are ultra raggy, where pairs like 99, 88, 77, or even 66 might be overpairs. Those are dangerous boards to stab at.

eastbay

[durron597]

But then I bust the times he does have it; plus he will call every time he has the Ad, and then I'm up against 12 outs twice. That's definitely a move where I only get called when I'm behind. What about check call, checkraise allin the turn? No, that doesn't work because my stack isn't deep enough for him to fold any two cards on the turn.

However, is it possible that I make enough chips from him folding often enough when he's got a big PP (without a diamond) to make that move +EV?

[durron597]

And when the board has a T-8 range card, the middle PP that just called me might have just flopped a set, and it's also dangerous.

But who said bluffing wasn't dangerous?

[ilya]

I dunno...you're probably right that it's not a good idea. My thinking was that if you push right away, he might call with something like top pair, thinking you're semibluffing with the flush draw....but if you check-raise, you might scare him into folding, since he probably won't be pot committed. I'm not sure why I think he won't also read you as semi-bluffing when you check raise.
Plus if he's tight as well as agressive he'll fold quite often. And then you get his bet in addition to what was already in the pot. I dunno.

[sdplayerb]

Yeah, I bet into Q sometimes too. It really depends on the player and how tight I think he is.
If very tight, I bet into him.
If LAG, i bet into him thinking he'd reraise with AQ.

It also depends how deep the stacks are.

I also will bet at Kxx with AQ representing AK.

J and T are the ones I get burned against the most as people bad enough to flatcall with AJ/JT, are just not going away.

If i think the person bets when they don't have it, but checks when they do, i may checkraise. But only if it makes it so i can checkraise allin where they can still fold.

Otherwise i don't like to bleed chips. I can usually find enough bad players to exact chips from.
I also play much more agg when antes have started.

[sdplayerb]

well if the board is 642 and they have 77, they are going to have a really tough decision because you could just as likely have an overpair.
And they probably aren't going to raise, so you still have outs even if they call.

[davidross]

OK do as I say, not as I do, since I butchered an AK hand tonight and broke all of my own rules.

I make the following assumptions. 1) you made a significant raise pre-flop and are driving the hand.

If I have been cold called by someone with position on me, I generally shutdown if I miss, unless the flop is particularily odd, like 224 or 3 of my suit. I generally put a cold caller on a pocket pair, and play accordingly. If I have seen the guy cold call and fold a lot, I will also take a shot.

If my caller is in the blinds, or acting before me, and folds to me, I will almost always bet the pot, ready to fold to a raise.

[mrbaseball]

It honestly depends on how many chips I have and who and what sized stacks I am playing against. I think the stacks involved is the biggest factor as well as the reads you have on the players. But typically I will fire a pot sized bet at the flop no matter what cards flop. After that it once again depends.

But I try to play AA, a flopped nuts and a missed 23o pure bluff the exact same way. I raise 'em pre flop and then stab on the flop.

[Vee Quiva]

I've been reading TJ Cloutier's book on NL tournaments and he absolutely hates AK. He also makes a point that many limit players fall in love with it especially when it makes top pair. Top pair is a good way to go broke in a NL tourney. If it is early or middle rounds of the tourney and you have at least an average size stack, check fold these coordinated flops. Too many ways to get beat. If it is late in tournament and you have solid reads on the players in the hand, then it might pay to make a stab at some of these pots. Be patient, all you have is Ace high.

[durron597]

I feel like that's a good way to lose a lot of chips though; raising a hand preflop and check-folding 2/3 of the time (or more!) seems -EV to me, when taking a stab often takes down the pot.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been reading TJ Cloutier's book on NL tournaments and he absolutely hates AK. He also makes a point that many limit players fall in love with it especially when it makes top pair. Top pair is a good way to go broke in a NL tourney. If it is early or middle rounds of the tourney and you have at least an average size stack, check fold these coordinated flops. Too many ways to get beat. If it is late in tournament and you have solid reads on the players in the hand, then it might pay to make a stab at some of these pots. Be patient, all you have is Ace high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've read this too. Lord knows we've all overplayed AK a few times and gone broke because of it.

AQ is even worse. We all know about Doyle Brunson's disdain for that hand.

JJ is well-known as a deceptively good-looking hand. Wise players have commented that if you think of JJ as if it were 88, you'll do a lot better.

QQ is another great hand to go bust on. Someone once observed that out of every two stories involving busting out of a tournamnet, at least one of them will start with "I was dealt QQ..."

Then we come to KK. Getting back to TJ, the AK-hater who started this discussion, he loves to write about his laydowns of KK. When there's a reraise before that flop, pitch that KK, wait for a better opportunity!

I've read a lot of poker literature over the years, and in the end I'm left with only one hand it's safe to bet money on. I guess the secret of being a good player is getting dealt that hand a lot.

[durron597]

Make sure that you get allin preflop with that one hand though, because otherwise your opponent flops two pair/trips/flush/straight and you're toast, if all the threads about folding AA on this board are any indication.

[fnurt]

Yes, and if you have 3 or more people go all-in preflop, you should fold AA anyway, because even though you have the best hand you'll be out of the tournament more than half the time, and we all know survival is the only thing that matters.