I submit to the masses: horrible fold?

[BigEndian]

I'm on the fence still. I think it's easy to say stupid fold just from looking at the pot, but a closer look at the action makes it close. I'm as big a proponent as there is to not fold in huge pots. However, I'm pretty certain I'm looking at an overset or a turned straight the majority of the time here, but maybe 6% of the time the guy has two pair or a horribly played top pair or, the important one that I frequently forget, he's just a flippin moron with a magnum of Jack Daniels squeezed between his legs sipping it through a straw.

Anyhow, enjoy /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: BigEndian is SB with 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button calls, BigEndian completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BigEndian bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BigEndian bets</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">BigEndian 3-bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="CC3333">Button caps</font>, BigEndian calls, BB calls.

The capped turn clinched it for me and is why I folded on the end unimproved.

River: (17 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BigEndian checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets</font>, BigEndian folds...

Final Pot: 18 BB

- Jim

[Trix]

Too big to fold set.

[jacki]

AT LEAST 1 time in 18 he will have Q8 or J8 or KQ or AQ. No way I fold this.

[BigEndian]

And cap the turn? Dubious.

- Jim

[Tosh]

I would toss in 1 more BB to be safe but if you are brave enough to fold, then fine. You look screwed, you almost certainly are screwed so its upto you.

[chesspain]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!! /images/graemlins/shocked.gif /images/graemlins/shocked.gif /images/graemlins/shocked.gif /images/graemlins/shocked.gif /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[MAxx]

I would tend to agree with you that given the turn cap, there is a very real chance you are behind. I also think your turn play was on point. However, I cannot think of a reason under the sun to not call one more big bet on the river here based on my experiences with Party 2/4. I think folding here is handing out way too much credit to your opponent, and is not a good way to continue playing.

[MoreWineII]

I think you win often enough that you should call on the end.

[BottlesOf]

I understand what you're saying. I still quite sure this is a bad fold.

[Joshua]

Button could have QJ. I've also seen players go crazy with straigt-flush-draws on the turn. Call and pray. If Sklansky sees this he'll go crazy.

[Haupt_234]

Ick...

This fold is no good on the river for one bet.

Haupt_234

[HajiShirazu]

/images/graemlins/ooo.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Dylan Wade]

[ QUOTE ]
pretty certain

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to be certain with razor sharp accuracy for folding to be even close.

Even if your fold here is correct and you're damn damn certain of it..., it's such a close marginal correct move, it's way safer to make the *small* 1 bet mistake here and call. 100% of the time, with a set, and 1 bet to close on the river, I'm going to call because even if I had the most absolute certain read, it's better to make the small mistake of calling. Besides, if you're going to fold the river, you might as well fold to the turn cap (also ludacris).

[balkii]

You can still sleep at night after doing this?

[Andy B]

[ QUOTE ]
Besides, if you're going to fold the river, you might as well fold to the turn cap (also ludacris).

[/ QUOTE ]

The word is "ludicrous." I take my title of Head Nit seriously.

Folding the turn for one more bet would be beyond insane, as he has ten outs to a full house or better.

I am a certified pay station, but this is a pretty easy call. If calling is a mistake, it's a very small one, costing you a fraction of that one bet. If folding is a mistake, it's a huge one.

[TheHip41]

I'll just echo everyone else in here by saying, just call. You are getting 18-1 to call the river bet. 1 time in 18 this guy will show you QJ that he slow played on the flop. Then went crazy on the turn. Trust me, at 2/4 party, you will win this hand sometimes.

derek