Bad fold?

[Schaefer]

The more I look at this hand the more I wish I had called. I have no read on MP but damn it all. Does this look like he's bullying me or is my testosterone getting the best of me. Clear call? Clear fold? Clear anything?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, Hero checks,

Flop: (3.40 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks.

Turn: (1.70 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, MP calls.

River: (3.70 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.70 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 5.70 BB, won by MP.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to MP.</font>

[Guido]

Yes, clear check-call IMO. A better hand isn't going to fold and when he has a draw, let him bluff. You don't want to see a raise either.

Guido

[fyodor]

If he has a legit hand he sure played it on the weird side. Guido is most likey right about check calling. Seeing as you bet though I call the raise.

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, clear check-call IMO. A better hand isn't going to fold and when he has a draw, let him bluff. You don't want to see a raise either.

Guido

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you think he has a draw? Would he really have checked in position with clubs on the flop? I doubt it. I value bet this river every time and expect to get paid off by any piece of the board, and sometimes K-high.

In regards to calling the raise, it would depend on my read of the player.

[Guido]

I never said that I think he has a draw but when he does, checking and hoping he will bluff is best, right? When he has a better hand he isn't going to fold, right? When he does have a better hand checking and calling is better than betting and hoping he won't raise, right? That leaves us with hands that are worse and that won't bet when we check, right? And I think that when we check that a lot of players will take a shot with any pair so there isn't much difference between checking and calling and betting out here too. Because checking and calling is best when he has a better hand or a draw and because I think it doesn't really matter what you do when he has a worse hand, I prefer checking and calling.

Makes any sense?

Guido

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
I never said that I think he has a draw but when he does, checking and hoping he will bluff is best, right? When he has a better hand he isn't going to fold, right? When he does have a better hand checking and calling is better than betting and hoping he won't raise, right? That leaves us with hands that are worse and that won't bet when we check, right? And I think that when we check that a lot of players will take a shot with any pair so there isn't much difference between checking and calling and betting out here too. Because checking and calling is best when he has a better hand or a draw and because I think it doesn't really matter what you do when he has a worse hand, I prefer checking and calling.

Makes any sense?

Guido

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that makes sense. Given your assumptions, your logic is flawless. However, I strongly disagree with your claim that many players will bet a "showdownable" hand there. A 5 or 2 checks through far more often that it bets. The value lost by checking when those hands would have called is far greater than the value gained from picking off bluffs, in my opinion.

Yes, getting raised sucks and leaves you with a tough decision, but that's just part of the game. I don't think you can leave the value of a bet on the table.

[Guido]

You asked me why I think he was on a draw. I explained that's just one of his possible holdings. I consider KT, JT ect also as draws, not only a flush draw. My question is: Why do you think he has a 5 or a 2? Wouldn't a hand like that bet the flop? Especially a 5? I think it's more likely he has a better hand or a draw than a small pair that you beat. That's why I think it's better to check-call than to bet.

Guido

[naphand]

I agree with Guido here.

It is not a simple question of "leaving a bet on the table", it's a question of how many times you will get an extra bet out of your opponent here versus the times he has a better hand and you pay 2 bets, or folds to your bet, or takes a shot with nothing.

With a board like this I am deeply suspicious of an A calling along, unless I have a read on the player that tells me they limp in with hands with a 2 or 5 (like K5s). Most limp-hands will be A2s and A5s, K5s and the like are for really special people.

This River gives a perfect opportunity for the opponent to bluff raise, or bluff bet. I probably call the raise, but I think a lot more opponents take a shot on the River when you check, and very few try a CR bluff. His opponent would read Schaefer as perhaps having a 5 or 6, the way the hand played.

Schaefer basically has an abysmal hand, but having reached the Turn and got some value, I don't think a fold on the River is good. I think that check-call gets more money than the combined bet-fold/call/raise, on balance. Considering only 2's and 5's (with no A) then betting is obviously right, enough chooks will call to make it profitable. But given the times he gets raised on the River and pays off, I prefer check/call. If his opponent is slow playing an A, or just playing it poorly, hero gets to minimise his FPS tactic. Given Hero folds the River to raise, then he certainly should have check-called.