Down to 3 - take 2nd place or make this call?

[Gramps]

I thought this was a pretty easy fold at the time given the almost identical stack sizes of my opponents (virtually guaranteeing me 2nd place at worst) - but I'm wondering if anyone has arguments to the contrary. Or, changing the stack sizes around a bit, under what circustances would it become a call (but still be close)?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (3 handed)

Hero (t2660)
Button (t3880)
SB (t3460)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Button raises to t3880 (All-In)</font>, SB calls t3310 (All-In), Hero folds.

Flop: (t7640) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t7640) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t7640) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t7640

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Button shows Qh Ac (one pair, fours).
SB shows Jd Ah (one pair, fours).
Outcome: Button wins t7640. </font>

[HUSKER'66]

Good fold.

You don't want to go to war against two bigger all in stacks with T/T. Let them kill off each other.

You'll be a 3/1 dog as far as chip count, but the blinds are still reasonable.As long as your aggresive headsup, your in good shape and have a chance to surge ahead for 1st.(power of positive thinking)

Husker

[fnurt]

Good fold for the reasons stated.

A more interesting question might be what hand is strong enough to call here. QQ? KK? I'm sure someone will come out of the woodwork and say they would fold AA.

[unfrgvn]

[ QUOTE ]
.... Or, changing the stack sizes around a bit, under what circustances would it become a call (but still be close)?


[/ QUOTE ]

If you had the SB covered then to me it's an easy call, otherwise I think I fold everything but aces and kings.

[Gramps]

Yeah, that's a good question too. AA seems like an easy call, I think KK would be the right call too. With KK, you have be thinking you're about 55%-70% or so versus the hands you're likely up against (e.g., Ax and an underpair, two underpairs, Ax and Ax, or other combinations you can plug in at twodimes.net). Of course, if somebody has AA you're screwed, but that's not going to happen too often.

So, if you assume KK will win, say, 60% of the time, I guess it depends on what your odds are in a HU matchup where you're outchipped 3:1 at the start (if you fold KK - assuming if the shorter stack wins, the "former big stack" will soon be eliminated and you will be HU shortly), and what your odds of winning are if you're a 4:1 chip favorite (which you'll be if you win that 3-way pot) - either HU or against two very short stacks.

For example, take some arbitrary odds and say you're only 1/4 to win as the 3:1 dog, but 4/5 to win as the 4:1 favorite (and in the situation where you're up against two short stacks, you'll never finish lower than 2nd). Then callilng the all-ins with KK is the right play, as you expect to win an extra 26% of the prize pool those times you win the KK hand (10% for 2nd plus 4/5 * 20%), while you only expect to get an extra 15% when you fold KK (10% for 2nd, plus 1/4 * 20%). So, for ten times you make either play in a $100 SNG, you get 6 * $260 = $1560 for calling with KK, or 10* $140 = $1400 for folding KK (given the $200/$300/$500 prize structure).

But...if the HU odds of winning are different, then the answer may be different, I don't have much of a clue what they are in real life. And what your "expected chance of winning" with KK is versus those two unknown hands may be different too...

...For the TT hand, I was thinking if the chip count were button 4,000, SB 2,000, and me 4,000, maybe you call with TT (since the button isn't very likely to make an all-in play with an overpair, and may only have one overcard to my tens or an underpair). If you beat both, you win. If you beat the button, worst off your are is where you started the hand. If you lose to the button...oh well. I'm too lazy to do the math right now, but that seems like it might be worth the risk, especially given the jump in money from 2nd to 1st.

[Cleveland Guy]

On the WPT Moneymaker was in a similiar situation. 3 people left, he was last to act (BB) with JJ. He said himself he wouldn't play unless he got AA, but then played the JJ.

The only difference in situations was he had 3rd covered, and he made sure he would get 2nd if they both busted out.

HE did bust out as 2nd as Phil Gordon paired his aces