short stack question after already making the money?

[pokerraja]

i dont have remember exactly the numbers. but i will try. this took place saturday night in a NL$50+5 MTT at PP. it had close to 600 entrants and paid top 60. I was short stack about T3500. blinds where 500/1000. we were down to about 44 people when i got this hand. It was folded to me in midposition with A7 suited. I open raised all-in. Figureing its time to make a move, and actually winning blinds would be huge at this point. anyways i get called by the BB, he barely has me covered and he has AQ os. he beats me when his river Q falls, i hit a 7 on the flop.

Was this a good play by me? easy all in? or rather could I of waited for a better hand? I actually almost folded it. What got me thinking is that another short stack at the table had less chips than me and I saw him make the final table by being very selective. I saw him make folds when i would of called with anything.

Im thinking that im overanalyzing this hand. just want some opinions, as im trying to improve every phase of my game. thanks.

[MLG]

I think the push is ok, although i think that some people might say your hand is too likely to be dominated. I don't mind that, your not looking to be live when called, you are looking to take the blinds down.

It is easy to look at somebody who makes insane folds and goes far and say, "if only I were as platient as..." but really this is just a different form of luck. When you cripple yourself by not gambling when the odds and stack sizes dictate it and then recover it is because you get lucky and get a good hand, the same way if you had won with the A-7 it would be lucky. Its possible, its not even all that uncommon, but that being said its not the kind of position you should look to put yourself in.

I think I'm just gonna start signing my posts cards happen.

[fnurt]

I would make that move from MP, sure. If you want to get anywhere with a short stack, you need to be a little aggressive and simply hope that you don't run up against a big hand. Once you've built up a reasonably useful stack you can start being more selective again.

[pokerraja]

lol@cards happen. thanks guys, always appreciate the input.

[ZootMurph]

Here's my take, for what it's worth:

With T3500 your chances are slim of making the final table without a lot of luck.

With 44 players left, if you wait for a real good hand, you should easily be able to move up to the next payout level... maybe even make the top 30 if you get a good hand.

So, for me, I'm looking to make as much as I can squeeze out, so I fold the A7s hand. You have to expect someone may call because you are shortstacked and often going in with less than optimal hands. The reverse, when you have a good hand you have to guess that someone will be calling you, again, because you are shortstacked... thus increasing your gains.

[vandalay]

Here is the formula I use to determine this stuff with Ax.
I feel that I will only get called with AA-77 and Ak-A10 and KQ. The chances of each person getting that are 9% * number of people left to act after you. Once your called, you are 3 outed either your ace, or your 7. Meaning your going to win ~30% of the time when called.

Do the math from there assuming 4 people act after you,
36% chance of being called and having a 30% chance at (5000)

That means you have
64% chance of winning the 1500 right then and there
11% chance of winning 5000 (3500 + 1500 in blinds, maybe less if one of the callers in in the blinds)
25% chance of losing and going home.

EV is
960 + 550 - 875 = 635 which means its an easy all in!!

-VI


With your amount of money, you would probably also be called by 22-66 for people in the BB/SB if they have chips.