What is this math effect called?

[Al Mirpuri]

Let me illustrate the math effect I am enquiring about with an example from Hold'em. If an Ace flops, it is likely someone active has an Ace in thier hand as well. However, if two Aces flop it becomes a little less likely that someone active has an Ace in their hand as two are on the board. If three Aces flop, it then becomes even less likely that someone has an Ace in their hand as their is only one Ace left unaccounted for. What is the name of this math effect?

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me illustrate the math effect I am enquiring about with an example from Hold'em. If an Ace flops, it is likely someone active has an Ace in thier hand as well. However, if two Aces flop it becomes a little less likely that someone active has an Ace in their hand as two are on the board. If three Aces flop, it then becomes even less likely that someone has an Ace in their hand as their is only one Ace left unaccounted for. What is the name of this math effect?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dependence (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=862179&page=0&view=ex panded&sb=5&o=14&fpart=#862179).

[ohgeetee]

I think you are describing how Bayes Theorem relates to poker.

[kyro]

you're wrong. i always lose my entire stack when i have the top full house with three of one kind on the board...heads up too. i think with three Aces on the board the odds of someone having the case ace (rhymed beeotch) is about 90 percent. trust me on this.

[Nottom]

I feel the same way about whenever the board flops a 3 flush.

[playerfl]

Thats what I thought, "Bayesian Inference".

[demonx5]

Mutual exclusivity (which is also dependence so BruceZ you had it but I just rephrased it), but basically for every ace on the board you know that it can't also be in someone's hand, thus affecting the probability of that particular event.

[ohgeetee]

They neede to reintroduce the Bayes Theorem with compensation for the Action Flop. I guess it would be the Bayes Anti Theorem?

[playerfl]

did anybody actually try to prove there was such a thing as an "action flop" ?

[ohgeetee]

The proof on RGP is all the times their AA was beaten. It came out to almost $25% of the time!

My dry sense of humor(or lack thereof) doesnt bode well in a text environment. I was and still am being facetious 8)