Another river action

[Trix]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) Ive seen opponents check-call KQ on AQx shorthanded from blind and slowplay trips where he raised turn. thats it.

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB folds.

River: (6.66 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero ?

[zuluking]

Bet. You only lose to a T, which he probably doesn't have. I don't see him with 2 pair. And even if you are beat, bet it everytime in this type of situation for long-term profit.

[onegymrat]

Hi Trix,

I prefer to bet this river. Most likely, button will muck anyway. Wouldn't YOU raise the turn in this spot if YOU had a ten in a typical game? Bet for value.

[Saborion]

Why does it matter what Hero would do with a T in that spot?

[Trix]

I dont see how betting it if I´m beat makes me money long term.

[Trix]

If you think he most likely will muck, what do I then gain by betting ?

[onegymrat]

I'm trying to get Hero to think what the opponent is holding and thinking. A typical opponent with a better hand would have raised the turn.

[onegymrat]

First, a calling station will donate more money to you. Second, if he mucks, you will not have to show your hand. Sorry, I just noticed it's online poker, I'm a live player. I believe they can still see your hand after the results?

[zuluking]

Because long-term you are not beat, he does not have the T or the 2 pair all the time. If you win 50.01% of the time in this situation, you will win more money long-term. More likely you will win 60% of the time or more. Bet and don't be afraid of monsters under the bed.

[Saborion]

I think you have a bet there, unless you think the button was on a draw and will fold to a bet but might bet a bluff when checked to. I wouldn't worry that much about him slowplaying good hands, since he won't have those good hands that often. Or?

[Saborion]

I'm trying to get Hero to think what the opponent is holding and thinking.
What Hero thinks the opponent is holding hasn't really anything to do with that Hero would have done in that spot now, does it?

A typical opponent with a better hand would have raised the turn.
A typical opponent, sure. Hero isn't typical though. I agree that most players would raise, typical and Hero's. This one liked to slowplay until the river though.

[Saborion]

, if he mucks, you will not have to show your hand.
That shouldn't really be a reason to bet if you don't think you'd be called though? Or?

believe they can still see your hand after the results?
Not if there isn't a showdown.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Most likely, button will muck anyway

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually agree with this, which is why betting is incorrect. I think this is a spot where inducing a bluff might be the best option.

[Trix]

I dont think he has a Ten either. Actually I think he has very little, so I dont think he will call a bet.
If I´m ahead 90% of the time, but wont get called anyway, should I then bet ?

[Trix]

Not if it´s uncalled.

[zuluking]

Of course! Because he is the typical LLHE player, loose/passive, he might have bottom pair and will call you down "just in case" you only have AK or something simliar.

[zuluking]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Most likely, button will muck anyway

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually agree with this, which is why betting is incorrect. I think this is a spot where inducing a bluff might be the best option.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally disagree with this.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
I totally disagree with this.

[/ QUOTE ]

With what do you disagree?

[Trix]

I check-called and he showed A9.
I thought that he would bet more worse hands that he would call with. There was also a small chance that he would play a flopped set like this.

[onegymrat]

Nice decision on the check. You got paid for it.

I believe that too many posters take S &amp; M's "inducing a bluff" theory too much to heart. Two reasons why you would check the river:

1. You know you have a better hand and the opponent will definitely fold if you bet, and he has some aggressive tendencies, so you are very sure he will bet a worse hand when checked to.

2. You are really scared that he has trips, so you check hoping to get a free showdown, and will call if he bets and therefore you will not get raised.

My opinion is that too many players use #1 as their excuse when it's really #2 in their minds. This play will definitely be player dependent. In my opinion, you should just bet your hand.

[Guido]

I would check-call this. He doesn't have a T and when he's slowplaying a big hand check-calling is best. When he was on a draw you can induce a bluff so even then check-calling is best. Betting and hoping he folds a worse hand makes no sense IMO, why bet? A better hand isn't going to fold and when he holds a 7 or a low PP he will bet a lot of the time. So why not check and get an extra bet when he has a worse hand or a draw? When he has something he will bet when you check and when he was on a draw you can get an extra bet... You also don't risk a raise. All these things together make it a clear and easy check-call IMO.

Guido