Downswing

[Scotch78]

I've switched to Party $1/$2, starting with a 300BB bankroll, and after about 2500 hands I'm down 70 BB. I'm playing low stakes because I know I have a lot to learn, but I've read most of the 2+2 books and am playing accordingly. Are such swings to be expected and I should just wait it out, or is it more likely that I'm severely overestimating my own skill? If it's the latter, how should I approach this problem? Thanx in advance

Scott

[Scotch78]

90 BB now, is patience really a virtue?

[lefty rosen]

Maybe you have a flat spot. Or try and find tables that suit your playing style. Ie if you raise alot of strong hands preflop and want to fire away at brick boards, then play tight weak or aggressive tables. If you like to call drawing hands like J/10 and Queen 8 suited then play multi-way tables.........

[ctv1116]

Yes 100BB swings are common at 1/2 even for the winning player.

[ResidentParanoid]

You will have stretches of *many* thousand hands where you make no $$. If you don't have the patience to wait it out, quit now.

[spydog]

Despite winning at a 4.5BB/100 clip at 1/2 over 20k hands, I have had 3 or 4 downswings of 100BB or more. Mine usually happen after a good streak. For some reason I get cocky and think every pot belongs to me and start overplaying hands and getting tricky. At the 1/2 level you need to play pretty standard. Raise PF with good hands, rarely limp. Be careful about throwing chips in the middle on the flop when you haven't hit and more than 2 people see the flop. Pound away when you are heads up on the flop.

Post some hands that you are unsure about. Also, it would hurt to post some Poker Tracker stats after 5k hands.

[Guido]

I lost 95BB last Tuesday in just 1.5 hours. I won 86BB yesterday in 3 hours so yes the swings can be huge.

You are never going to find out whether you make any mistakes when you don't post any hands. Personally I don't think you play like the 2+2 books, it takes a lot of experience to play well especially postflop.

Thanks,

Guido

[blubster]

man your posting about being down 70BB. Just wait til you have a 300BB downswing, then you'll really be upset. I had a 275BB downswing not too long ago.

blubster

[DaveB]

Yeah I'm (hopefully) on the path to recovery from 250BB down over 5000 hands or so.

[tripdad]

get a hand tracking program such as pokertracker. use it to analyze your play. find out whether you are taking beats, running card dead, or overplaying top pair. 2+2 books are mostly geared toward full ring game play, not SH games.

good luck!

[partypokerer]

is 20k hands too long to be break even for?

[vector]

[ QUOTE ]
.. after about 2500 hands I'm down 70 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

2,500 hands is really a drop in the ocean. 70BB down after this many hands is utterly unremarkable.

Having said that, its always a good idea to examine your play, and be prepared to acknowledge faults, especially when just starting out. It can take a while to adjust to new structures / limits.

Best advice I can give is post some hands you are unsure about - it's a great way to determine whether you are playing optimally or not.

Good luck!

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
is 20k hands too long to be break even for?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, a winning player can still lose after this many hands...

Guido

[partypokerer]

After how long would you start to think you are no longer a winning player?

[BugsBunny]

A winning player (true earn of 2 BB/100, SD of 18, neither number unrealistic) could be a loser after 30,000 hands and still be within a 95% confidence interval.

Put another way the possible range (for those numbers) after 30K hands (within 2 SD of the norm) are as follows:

Expected return: 600 BB
+- 2 SD range: + 1223.5 BB to - 23.5 BB

The actual numbers depend on your specific true earn and Standard Deviation. If we look at an earn of 1 BB/100 and a SD of 13 BB/100 then you could still be behind after 60K hands.

Expected return: 600 BB
+- 2 SD range: + 1236.9 BB to - 36.9 BB

Now the much greater area is on the positive side so the chances of you actually being behind after this many hands are small (about 2.5%), but they are within the realm of realistic probability.