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View Full Version : what's your plan here


DaveB
07-24-2004, 03:31 PM
Party 5/10 6 handed. I have 22 in the BB. UTG raises, SB calls, I call. Flop is J 7 5 or something similar. What is your default plan?

Peter_rus
07-24-2004, 04:35 PM
check-raise flop if 3-betted - fold on turn if betted. If called - lead every street till river.

ctv1116
07-24-2004, 05:09 PM
I check/fold. You are either nearly drawing dead or marginally ahead, especially if the SB calls the presumptive UTF flop bet. If SB calls, you could have as many as 4 overcards (12 outs) against you, in addition to any straight/flush possibilites.

I try to think in terms of effective odds here (I think that's the term): You will need to call $25 worth of bets to win $55-60 ($30 in the pot preflop + $25 UTG betting). Add the fact that UTG will likely check the river if you have UTG beat, and its a bad situation for you. The BB pre-flop call is fine, but you're playing it for set value.

EDIT: It would be interesting to see, given 2 random holdings of UTG and SB, what the probability that either UTG or SB has at least a pair given a non-paired flop. This would be the probability that you are drawing to a two outer. I suspect it is fairly high.

naphand
07-25-2004, 03:59 AM
PokerStove:

22 pre-flop against a raiser and random hand has equity of around 29%. This is an easy call from BB.

With no set against a PF raise this crashes to around 15% (no significant difference if 2nd-player tightens up his calling standards as opposed to any random holding).

34TheTruth34
07-25-2004, 01:06 PM
my default plan is to check the flop 100% of the time so UTG can bet. Should the SB call, I'd fold. If the SB folds, I'd probably check-call down. I'd check-raise if a deuce hits or check-fold if an ace comes.

The most important thing here is knowing whether or not your opponent will fold a 6-out hand (i.e, two overcards). If he will consistently, then you could check-raise the turn on almost any card except an ace. A lot depends, too, on how far out of line he's seen you get in recent hands. The more respect he has for your play, the more I'd be inclined to check-raise the turn. That's because you get more value out of the check-raise as now not only is he folding 6-outers, but he's also folding a small amount of hands that you beat.

You also need to know whether he's one of those play-any-pair-to-the-river shorthanded players (a lot of them are) or if he can fold a hand that has you beat for a check-raise on the turn.