QQ vs rags, villan raises when the turn pairs

[bobdibble]

Love the flop.. hate the turn.

Ok.. he could have A or K 3s.. I have 4 outs to win: fold
He could have 33, I have 0 outs to win: fold
He could have 99 or 55, I have 4 outs to win: fold
(He isn't getting the right pf odds of cold calling either of these, and the guy doesn't suck. However.. he is on the button... maybe he is a button whore.)

He doesn't have 2 pair.. the guy isn't that fishey.

He could have A or K of clubs, maybe with the 9 even and he is putting me on overcards and or is semi-bluffing: call
(Once again, bad pf cold call, but maybe he loves the button)

Hmm.. so pretty much he shouldn't have called pf with anything I can put him on that beats me. Maybe he would just call JJ or TT and bwait to see if scare cards came? If so, I should raise.

So.. how likely are all of these, and which action should I take? Is this the right way to be thinking?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero ...

[Jaran]

Hey bob,
I understand your predicament. You would have to be very sure to lay this down here, though. It is very possible (as you said) that he is semibluffing with something like A9 /images/graemlins/club.gif. I would call him down. If he cc'ed w/something like A3o, then you can adjust your read on him as solid down.

-Jaran

[Nemesis]

Page 167 of SSHE the footnote adresses this exact situation. Basically it says that when the board pairs and somebody bets out they are LESS likely to have it than if they check. The reasoning being that instinctively they'll check to the raiser and then check-raise you catching you for 2 bets instead of just 1. They want action, and aren't going to try to scare you off.

[cartoonsoldier]

I also think you have this hand at the moment. He is semi-bluffing a Flush draw and as said A9/images/graemlins/club.gif is a good possibility.

He would play that PF, hits the flop and has a good turn card too.

I would 3-bet here.

[babigm]

[ QUOTE ]
Page 167 of SSHE the footnote adresses this exact situation. Basically it says that when the board pairs and somebody bets out they are LESS likely to have it than if they check. The reasoning being that instinctively they'll check to the raiser and then check-raise you catching you for 2 bets instead of just 1. They want action, and aren't going to try to scare you off.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does that apply in this situation? The opponent acts after in this case, which makes a check-raise kind of silly.

[Nemesis]

d'oh you caught me... i guess i didn't read the hand right. Forget i said that.