KK and a river raise

[cold_cash]

Oppenents loose but not especially agressive.

What do you guys think of the raise on the river?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (11.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 15.25 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 15.25 BB, between UTG+1 and Hero.</font>

[vulturesrow]

This situation is probaly ok...I put him on a high pocket pair that cant beat your kings most likely.

[Brain]

Hmm, you certainly could be looking at TT. I think I'd play it like he did too with the slowdown on the turn after you raised the flop.

[dfscott]

The "not especially agressive" part concerns me when you're raised on the river. I'm worried about TT, so I'd probably just call.

[Saborion]

The river bet, after the previous action, seems to me as though he's either taking a shot (stupid imo, since given the action so far we shouldn't put him on a flush all that often and would therefore call, and he should know this), or a value bet with either a flush (I doubt it), or pocket T's.

Many players, I think anyway, bet hands they improve on the river when the river brings a possible flush, figuring that flush may scare the agressor to take a free showdown. Or maybe he was simply afraid to check-raise his rivered top set due to the possible flush. All I know is that he after the action so far, I'd say he has a hand. So the river bet should be more likely to be a value bet than a bluff, unless he's a whacko believing he can make you fold your overpair for one bet on the river.

Edit: Btw. If he has pocket T's, which I would put him on without a read, then he should 3-bet. Thinking you have a flushin that spot after the way you played your hand... well, you could raise the flop with AKs, but I wouldn't worry about it.

Edit 2: And the next time you post a hand, please don't include your opponents actions after your own check, bet or raise. It'll often tell us stuff about the opponents hand(s) which often will affect our thinking.

Final Edit: Ok. The guy can have something like AK-AJ, 88, 99, TT or JJ. QQ is more likely to have given a bit more action post-flop, although some players are passive. If he's taking a stab the pot at the river with AK-AJ, JJ, 99, 88, he's not all that likely to call that raise, making it even less correct. With a flush he'll often re-raise, and with T's, you put in money with the worst hand. No, the river raise is not a good one imo.

[Saborion]

Come on man! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[cold_cash]

Sorry this took me so long.

Anyway, my opponent called my raise on the river and showed me AA.

I thought from the lack of a pre-flop cap and his passivity on the flop and turn I was most likely looking at QQ or JJ.

If this was a wild desperation bet on his part, you're right he will fold, but don't you think he'd pay off another bet w/ one of those high pairs?

I need to go back over your post a lot more carefully, then I'll give some more thoughts. Just wanted to get the results up here. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Saborion]

Sorry this took me so long.
I really haven't bothered to look when you posted it. I just wanted to know his hand. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Anyway, my opponent called my raise on the river and showed me AA.
I like opponents like that since they save me bets. I dislike opponents like that, since they give me false hopes. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I thought from the lack of a pre-flop cap and his passivity on the flop and turn I was most likely looking at QQ or JJ.
Given the lack of a pre-flop raise and his passivity on the flop and turn, I'd say you were most likely looking at 88-JJ, with JJ being less likely.

I need to go back over your post a lot more carefully, then I'll give some more thoughts.
Given the extra thoughts added a couple of times, my post is not all that clean. Here's a c/p from a PM I sent to another poster regarding your hand. I think it sums it up better.

Given the action so far, I'd say it's likely that UTG+1 has a hand. He raised pre-flop and called your 3-bet. On the flop he bet into you, the pre-flop 3-bettor, in a 4-way pot when no high cards flopped, only to call your raise. He then check-called the turn. On the river he's betting into you again even though you've shown some strength throughout the hand. This usually means one of two things:
1: A bluff/"semi-bluff" with AK-AT, 88, 99, JJ (although I doubt JJ), in which he may or may not call our raise (I'd say they call pretty often with a PP here)
2: The opponent improved his hand and value bets because he fears it'll get checked through (most opponents doesn't realize that we know it's so unlikely for them to have the flush that we would bet anyway, so they bet. You know what I mean right?) and/or because he doesn't want you to 3-bet his check-raise in case you have the flush when he doesn't.

Him improving could be one pair (Tx), two pair (Tx), set (TT) or a flush (xh xh). Given the action, I'd say one pair is unlikely. So is two pair, unless he's a total whacko pre-flop. He can easily have a set. I doubt he has a flush since the flop bet would make little sense (again, unless he's a pre-flop whacko).

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought from the lack of a pre-flop cap and his passivity on the flop and turn I was most likely looking at QQ or JJ.
Given the lack of a pre-flop raise and his passivity on the flop and turn, I'd say you were most likely looking at 88-JJ, with JJ being less likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to be clear, he did raise pre-flop, he just didn't cap after I 3-bet.

[Saborion]

Yes. I was suppose to write "Given his pre-flop play". /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[cold_cash]

I definetely agree with your conclusion that UTG+1 has a hand and is betting the river for value.

The problem I have in this situation, (which luckily for me doesn't come up all too often), is that while he may be betting for value, I still may have a better hand and he's none the wiser.

It seems unlikely that he could rationally believe a pocket pair from about Queens down could be good in this spot though, based on how much agression I've shown so far, (especially if he is paying any attention to what I'm doing, and not just staring at his own cards).

I think I failed to give him credit for doing this, and found myself doing the exact thing I just accused him of.