Jose Contreras, Tanyon Sturze, and Jon Leiber

[andyfox]

Can this possibly be the rotation of the team with the best record in the league as it goes up against its arch-rival in a big series beginning tonight? The lowest ERA among the three is 4.82. The line-up features the following batting averages for June/July:

Williams .261 (but .152 for July, 10 for 66)
ARod .256
Matsui: .245
Sierra: .238
Posada: .236
Clark: .230
Wilson: .192
Giambi: .167 (consistent: .167 in June and .167 in July, a combined 17 for 112)

In addition, their hottest hiter has a broken hand and will not play tonight (and possibly beyond).

OTOH, here are the ERAs for the key relief pitchers for June/July:
Rivera: 0.84
Gordon: 1.75
Quantrill: 1.76

But can a team continue to win with so many weaknesses?

[kerssens]

With the current team they could definatly be in trouble in the playoffs, Steinbrenner knows it....enter Randy Johnson

[ThaSaltCracka]

El Duque looked sharp last night.
You know, there is something wrong with Giambi, some sort of stomach parasite so blame his troubles on that.

They will be fine, most of their injured players will be back in time for the playoffs. They just need to be average right now to stay where they are because Boston has sucked lately too.

[andyfox]

Giambi hit .250 last year, before the stomach virus. I'm starting to fear he may indeed have some serious disease. I hope I'm completely off-base here, but the weakness he claims to have sounds like some Lou-Gehrig related neruo-muscular thing. Or perhaps some Balco crap he was ingesting is coming home to roost.

You're right: Bostons' 37-37 record since their hot start is what's kept the Yankees in control. If Mussina and Brown can come back, and El Duque keeps sharp, they should be OK. They just need to make sure that Gordon and Rivera don't hit a bad patch (which all pitchers inevitably do at least once during the season). To a large extent the Yankees' success has always been based on 8th and 9th inning strength, first Rivera setting up for Wetteland, and then Stanton and Nelson setting up for Rivera.

[JeffO]

Jeter was quoted in the paper saying he was playing tonight.

[Joe Tall]

It's amazing isn't it. It's even more frustrating on this end.

Some more stats that I found interesting:

2004 Season:

BOS - NYY
.277 .264 avg
514 516 runs
.357 .353 OBP
.464 .458 Slug
40 45 SBs
447 451 Runs allowed
4.07 4.45 Team ERA
4.21 4.96 Starters ERA
3.77 3.51 Relievers ERA
+67 +65 Run differential

6-10 15-9 One Run Games

Peace,
Joe Tall

[andyfox]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1844787

[andyfox]

Very interesting. Not much difference between the two teams. That 15-9 record in one-run games probably underlines the effectiveness of Rivera and Gordon in close games. The Yankees are definitely not as good a team as their record, at least thus far. I don't feel so bad about my early season prediction now.

How have the Yankees managed to score more runs than the Sox despite a lower batting average, a lower BP and a lower slugging percentage?

Sierra's walk-off home run yesterday was his first since 1989. Pretty hard to research, but I sure doubt any player has gone more than fifteen years between walk-off dingers.

[JeffO]

http://www.nypost.com/sports/yankees/18166.htm

[JeffO]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/story/214925p-185056c.html

[bosoxfan]

Do you have the stats for unearned runs allowed and runners left on base? I bet the Sox are near the top of the league in both of those.

[kerssens]

[ QUOTE ]
How have the Yankees managed to score more runs than the Sox despite a lower batting average, a lower BP and a lower slugging percentage?

[/ QUOTE ]

Only a theory off the top of my head but the Red Sox are more of a station to station team than the Yanks, the Yankees are probably more efficient with their hits and are able to take extra bases, which would lead to more runs, or the same amount of runs with fewer hits

[andyfox]

Well now we'll see who's really running the team, Torre or Jeter. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I love it the way players always apppeal their suspension. Ortiz is lucky all he got was five games. Maybe they'll reduce it to four.

[andyfox]

The Yankees are kind of station to station too. Only Jeter and A-Rod have any kind of speed, and the Yanks have only five more stolen bases than the Sox. The Yankees rarely try to move runners up (as opposed to driving them in), they almost never sacrifice (Jeter did it more than usual earlier in the year when he wasn't hitting), and they don't hit-and-run much.

[andyfox]

I couldn't fine LOB, but the Sox have given up 63 unearned runs to the Yanks' 39. But that still shuldn't make any difference: the runs scored vs. runs allowed differential is the same whether the runs are earned or unearned.

FWIW, the Yankees have struck out 580 times, while the Sox have struck out 720 times. Also, the Yankees are 5-4 in extra inning games and the Sox 5-8.

[JoeU]

Its amazing how close the 2 teams are statistically. I'm wondering if anyone has a come-from-behind statistic? I know the Yanks have done this a ton of times, but I don't know how many come-from-behind wins the Sox have. There could be a big difference in this number too.

Joe

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
The Yankees are kind of station to station too. Only Jeter and A-Rod have any kind of speed, and the Yanks have only five more stolen bases than the Sox. The Yankees rarely try to move runners up (as opposed to driving them in), they almost never sacrifice (Jeter did it more than usual earlier in the year when he wasn't hitting), and they don't hit-and-run much.

[/ QUOTE ]
To be honest, if they have scored just as many runs but with a lower average then they can't be as bad as Boston in regards to being "Station to Station". They have to be doing some sort of sacrificing there. Besides there is a little more speed on the team than just A-Rod and Jeter. Lofton can run, Posada has decent speed. The only real slow runners they have are sheffield and Sierra.

[bosoxfan]

That's true. I guess my point was poor defense and the inability to get the timely hits (runners in scoring position) has been a big problem for them this year.

[andyfox]

Yeah, I forgot about Lofton. Posada is slow. He just looks fast compared to Giambi and and some of the others. The Sox have only 8 sacrifice bunts this year, the Yankees have 21 (or so).

There's probably a bit of a luck factor involved.

[ThaSaltCracka]

Chalk some of it up to the manager too. Torre is a far better manager than Francona, with plenty of experience, both in the AL and NL.

[andyfox]

I would imagine so, yes. Plus it's easier to manage with an eight-and-a-half game lead than when you're behind by that much. Yesterday, note that Torre used Gordon for one inning and then Rivera for one in a 0-0 game. I don't know for sure, but I imagine, with the Red Sox series coming up and the Yankees having that exceptional trio starting from the title of this thread, Rivera was only going the one inning and if the game was lost in extra innings, it was lost. It would have been harder to give up on the game (OK, not give up, but not worn out your two premier relievers) if he was in second place.

[JeffO]

He's lucky one of those bats didn't hit the ump or he'd of gotten a month.

[JeffO]

"Posada has decent speed." ??????????????????????


compared to what?

[kerssens]

Maybe the Yankees aren't faster but its possible that they're just collectively a better baserunning team, I haven't watched them too much so I wouldn't really know, just throwing out ideas, maybe they go first to third more often and score on SF's whereas Boston might have runners on second and first in the same situation

[andyfox]

Compared to Giambi.

[Joe Tall]

Andy,

Yes, I believe the bullpen stats in your orginal post make up for significant difference in those one run games.

How have the Yankees managed to score more runs than the Sox despite a lower batting average, a lower BP and a lower slugging percentage?

If I could find the men-left-on-base stats, I'm sure the Red Sox would surge in the total above the Yanks.

The season is no where near over. The series this weekend could be either a spark or a black hole for the Old Town Team.

I love baseball.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[kyro]

Derek Lowe would be undefeated this year if his teammates stopped making errors behind him. The mental "gidget" goes from baseball pitcher to softball pitcher the moment one of his teammates bobbles a grounder. Any time Lowe pitches, and an error occurs in the field, I shut the TV off knowing a crap load of runs is about to be scored by the opposing team.

It puts Lowe on tilt, which is very -EV for the Sox

[Gamblor]

And still the worst pitcher in the history of the major leagues.

[andyfox]

I think the Sox are still in the lead for the wild card race, no? If not, they're very close. I like their team better than Oakland's.

[andyfox]

My point exactly.

[andyfox]

Another sub-par performance by a Yankee starting pitcher. Another win. What do I know.

Another thriller that the Red Sox came up a buck short on.

[craig r]

they had a half game lead over chicago and oakland going into today. but, with the loss and chicago win, chicago is the wild card right now. oakland lost though.

[andyfox]

A thriller for the Sox. The Yankees rely on Rivera and when he fails every once in a while, so do they. But the problem, of course, goes back to a starting pitcher that should be in the minor leagues.

[Toro]

Thank god the bombers threw us a bone today. Because of the DNC convention the Zakim and Tobin bridges are off limits.

[Toro]

Was on the road for the 8th inning. Radio announcer Joe Castiglione said that the Yankees were 56-0 when leading after 8 innings. Then he sighed and said "there's always a first time".

Can this statistic be correct? 56-0? That's amazing!

[JoeU]

The stat was also mentioned on Fox during the game. 56-0 is correct. There haven't been THAT many come from behind wins in the 9th. I aslo think this takes into account games they might have been leading in, been caught, and won in extra innings. But I'm sure there are only 1-2 of those games since this is only the 2nd save Rivera blew this season.

Joe

[JTG51]

But the problem, of course, goes back to a starting pitcher that should be in the minor leagues.

Or at least on the mound and not in the hospital. Sturtze is terrible, but his joining the fight and getting hurt really killed the Yankees today.

[andyfox]

Most teams have near-perfect records when leading after 8 innings. No doubt Rivera had been particularly tough this year until today, with an era below 1.00, but I'd be surprised if any team has lost more than a few games when leading after 8.

I'm actually surprised Rivera doesn't blow more saves. Obviously he's a terrific pitcher. But he only throws at one speed. If he's a little off, he doesn't have much choice but to throw and hope. Whereas somebody like Gagne, who throws not just heat but also a change-up and a curve, can rely on his off-speed stuff if he finds his fastball below par.

[andyfox]

Yeah, not only is he bad, but he's young too.

The Red Sox are starting to have starting pitching problems also.

[Sooga]

Well his one speed is off of one pitch that many consider to be the best cutter in the history of the game and certainly the best today. When you can throw that bat-eating cutter along with a mid 90's 4-seamer, that's basically all you need.

[andyfox]

I'm not saying he's not great. I'm saying if he's a couple or three mph under his norm, which happens to everyone (in particular a 34 year old fastball pitcher who has worked the two previous days), he'd be more susceptible to being hit than a pitcher that can change speeds.

[Sooga]

Well, Rivera's pitched tired before, and on top of that, hitters know exactly what they're gonna get, and they still can't hit it. I think he just cracked today.

[andyfox]

I rest my case.

[Boris]

.

[andyfox]

The results of the game are irrelevant to the general point: I felt the Yankees would have trouble this year due to poor starting pitching. I still think they may have trouble, their record notwithstanding. Of course, the three they started this series may not start at all in the post-season. Even if they don't get Randy Johnson, their post-season rotation will probably consist of Vasquez, Brown, Mussina and El Duque.