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DrPhysic

07-22-2004, 11:20 PM

Results for the Atlantic and US games for Thursday July 22:

Atlantic Game:
1: mwelch69 (peoria), $72.00 (40%)
2: skaboomizzy (Tampa), $54.00 (30%)
3: DrPhysic (San Antonio), $36.00 (20%)
4: t_perkin 2+2 (Akureyri), $18.00 (10%)
5: Patmyne1 (Iowa City),
6: dr. jekyl (Kennebunk),
7: SmoothQ (Suitland),
8: Toro85 (Worcester),
9: cblade (elk grove village),
10: wioff (Huntingdon Valley),
11: cglinn (Rochester),
12: spazm6666 (Altamonte Springs),
13: FLIFE (Lockport),
14: DaMouse (San Jose),
15: ECNHAN (Leominster),
16: ferd12 (wallkill),
17: james9506635 (stavanger),
18: lorimar (Nerepis),

US Game:
1: jouwstrm (Madison), $72.00 (40%)
2: Califguy54 (Los Alamitos), $54.00 (30%)
3: JustGuessin (Saginaw), $36.00 (20%)
4: dr. jekyl (Kennebunk), $18.00 (10%)
5: DoubleD38 (Woodstock),
6: jedi333 (Oceanside),
7: stone57 (selma),
8: Krogoth (Lake Charles),
9: Eder (Canmore),
10: ismisus (Irvine),
11: skaboomizzy (Tampa),
12: Airgunn (Norman),
13: Toro85 (Worcester),
14: joboo002 (Midlothian),
15: heyrocker (Chicago),
16: DrPhysic (San Antonio),
17: big richard (adams ,Tn),
18: Faduniak (Bellevue),

See you all next week.

Doc

jedi

07-23-2004, 02:48 AM

Hand 1

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t4030)
Jedi (t1660)
BB (t710)
UTG (t1310)
MP1 (t1465)
MP2 (t1375)
CO (t3000)

Preflop: Jedi is SB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, MP1 raises to t150, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, Jedi raises to t400, BB folds, MP1 calls t250.

Flop: (t850) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Jedi bets t1260 (All-In), MP1 calls t1065 (All-In).

Turn: (t3175) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3175) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t3175
Main Pot: t2980 (t2980), between Jedi and MP1. > Pot won by Jedi (t2980).
Pot 2: t195 (t195), returned to Jedi.

Results in white below: 
Jedi shows Kc Ac (two pair, aces and threes).
MP1 shows 8c 8s (two pair, eights and threes).
Outcome: Jedi wins t3175. 

Hand 2 (a bit later)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (6 handed)

CO (t4880)
Jedi (t3200)
SB (t660)
BB (t1310)
UTG (t1425)
MP (t2075)

Preflop: Jedi is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG raises to t100, MP folds, CO folds, Jedi raises to t400, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls t300.

Flop: (t875) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
UTG bets t150, Jedi raises to t1200, UTG calls t875 (All-In).

Turn: (t3100) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t3100) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t3100
Main Pot: t2925 (t2925), between Jedi and UTG. > Pot won by UTG (t2925).
Pot 2: t175 (t175), returned to Jedi.

Results in white below: 
UTG shows Jc Ah (flush, ace high).
Jedi shows Ks Ad (one pair, aces).
Outcome: UTG wins t2925. Jedi wins t175.

hyde

07-23-2004, 11:29 AM

In a general view, you are far fonder of AK than I am.
especially post flop. and I fear flushes, perhaps abnormally. and in the 2nd hand I would have read his bet as 4 to a flush. Too many players will call against your push. As seen...

Of course I play spades because they are pretty.......so you might not want to put a whole lot of value on my observations...... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

hyde , dr jekyl

Joboo

07-23-2004, 01:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t4030)
Jedi (t1660)
BB (t710)
UTG (t1310)
MP1 (t1465)
MP2 (t1375)
CO (t3000)

Preflop: Jedi is SB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, MP1 raises to t150, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, Jedi raises to t400, BB folds, MP1 calls t250.

Flop: (t850) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Jedi bets t1260 (All-In), MP1 calls t1065 (All-In).

Turn: (t3175) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3175) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t3175
Main Pot: t2980 (t2980), between Jedi and MP1. > Pot won by Jedi (t2980).
Pot 2: t195 (t195), returned to Jedi.

Results in white below: 
Jedi shows Kc Ac (two pair, aces and threes).
MP1 shows 8c 8s (two pair, eights and threes).
Outcome: Jedi wins t3175. 

[/ QUOTE ]

That hand was against me. I was pretty sure you were on overcards that didn't hit the flop, so I took a risk that didn't work out. I'd like to hear someone else's critique of either of our plays.

DrPhysic

07-23-2004, 02:12 PM

Jedi,

I see AK solely as a drawing hand. Obviously with AKs you have a stronger draw than with AKo, but either way all you have initially is ace high. This is not AA, KK, QQ that can be expected to win the hand outright.

I asked the statistics bunch a question a while back: "How often will ace high, not improved, win against any 2 dealt to the river in a heads up game?" Bozeman, who is one of our mathematicians, surprised me with the answer. It was between 5% and 6%. I truly had thought it would be higher. On a full table, even if no-one else bets, the other 7 or 8 hands that didn't bet represent some lower cards, therefore the odds of the one guy who did bet having a better hand than he would be expected to have in a heads up game increase somewhat. Ie: your odds even heads up on a full table of winning with ace high are worse than the 5-6%. You really need to draw something.

If no one has bet or called ahead of me, I will try to protect the hand by betting 4-5BB. With one raiser ahead, as in both of your hands, you cannot protect the hand from HIM, so all you can do is try to get him isolated. Ie: protect the hand from the other 7 or 8 players. (9 or 10 seat table, depending on where you are playing)

Because of the above, I don't like your raise to 8bb pf. I think a min re-raise accomplishes all you are going to get done preflop. ie: in hand 1, i would bet 250, in hand 2 i would bet 150. Note that there is a difference between a minraise and a min re-raise. The re-raise should be sufficient to keep out anybody not holding a monster. The drawing hands won't call usually in a re-raised pot (at least they shouldn’t, depends on how loose your game is). This should give you as good a chance as you will get most of the time of isolating the original raiser.

Post flop in hand 1 you have nothing. The push is ok if you are doing it as an outright bluff, and know that is what you are doing, know how often, and why. But as a value raise i don't like it at all. You have a drawing hand and didn't draw anything. You now have no flush, and have 6 outs. 3As 3Ks. That makes you about a 1 in 3 shot to draw anything at all. 46cards out/6outs x 2remaining cards. (actually this is a quick approximation, it’s really 24.5%) I would think in terms of a check call on the flop, to 1) see how strong he is, 2) see if you can hang in for the turn/river to see if you can draw an A or K.

After the A on the turn, I would be torn between betting out, or trying for a check raise depending on how much he bet on the flop and how strong i read his hand to be. It is clear from his pf bet that he has something. A pair of some size or other would be a good guess. Obviously, that's what he had. The question on the turn is "has he improved it?". Therefore i lean toward the check. If he checks, fine, you get a free card, then bet it hard on the river. If you get a 3-4BB bet, check raise it. If he pushes, you have to decide between call and fold. Ie: “did he get the trip?”

You are going to win this hand, and I may end up winning less money depending on the turn/river bets than you did. But I think you got lucky after the flop bet. I would have played more conservatively until I saw that second ace.

In your second hand, I would re-raise a little less pf than you did as I said. On the flop, I would probably go back to “check call the flop, check raise the turn” just because of the three clubs on board. I want him to have a chance to tell me he has the flush. I like a big bet here, although I might not push with just AA and 3 clubs showing. A pot bet of 1/4 to 1/3 stack? I might like it better on the turn. In either case he is going to call, catch the flush on the river and beat either one of us. He got lucky on the river, you didn’t.

Your second hand may be played right for a ring game, but maybe not for a tournament. In a ring, I probably have an immediate edge with TPTK. Take it and run. If I’m wrong I can buy some more chips. However, in a tournament, I have to think more in terms of making a decent pot if I’m right, and getting out of it with half my stack left if I’m wrong. I may not make a killing on the good pots, but I’m at least still in the game on the bad ones.

File for reference that, after a year and 26 books, I still consider myself a learner. Take my advice for whatever it’s worth, but not as gospel.

Doc

t_perkin

07-23-2004, 04:24 PM

You guys let mwelch win?! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Can't believe he got that runner runner flush.

def. wasn't my day.

Great to play one of these again tho. I will try and make it to at least one next week too.

Tim

DrPhysic

07-23-2004, 04:44 PM

Worse than that Tim,

Looks like maybe skaboomizzy and i recruited him for 2+2. So maybe he will become your new nemesis.

Doc

Toro

07-23-2004, 06:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Of course I play spades because they are pretty.......

[/ QUOTE ]

I know!!!

Eder

07-24-2004, 09:05 AM

Well was fun...dunno why the hand converter doest work for me...was goin to post my best hand , which was a big suck out where I found myself committed to a pot on a steal with A10o but hitting my 3-outer haha...

Rest of the tourney I got creamed...thanks to good opposition and my self immolation trying to play JJ against a large reraise...I will never learn to drop that hand preflop...

pzhon

07-24-2004, 10:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I see AK solely as a drawing hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, that is flat wrong. AK is a made hand heads-up.

[ QUOTE ]

I asked the statistics bunch a question a while back: "How often will ace high, not improved, win against any 2 dealt to the river in a heads up game?" Bozeman, who is one of our mathematicians, surprised me with the answer. It was between 5% and 6%. I truly had thought it would be higher.

[/ QUOTE ]
I believe you have misinterpreted that result.

When there is no ace on the board or in your hand, you can't win with ace-high. The chance that you win with ace-high when you have AK is much higher than 5%.

Unimproved AK is not always ace-high. About half of the time, the board pairs. That was not included in the 5% figure. Actually, when the board pairs, it is harder for your opponent to hit the board, so it is easier for you to win with AK unimproved.

So, the 5% figure is irrelevant to figuring out how often AK unimproved wins. In fact, that's what Bozeman told you on the thread you started 4/24/04 in the probability forum.

AK unimproved is just below bottom pair. About half of the time, your opponent won't even have bottom pair. HU, you need to view AK as a made hand. You can often bet ace-high for value.

AK unimproved wins much more than 5% of the time HU. AK unimproved wins about 22% (36C5/48C5) of the time against QJ, ignoring straights and flushes. AK unimproved wins about 38% (40C5/48C5) of the time against KQ, ignoring straights and flushes. AK can even beat low pairs that get counterfeited, e.g., Q2 loses on a 26688 board, so AK unimproved wins more against lower nonpairs, ignoring straights and flushes.

naphand

07-24-2004, 02:02 PM

I just ran some cards through PokerStove to see what EV comes out for AK unimproved.

Results as follows:

AKs - 44% with all A and K dead (i.e. none on board)
AKo - 40% ditto

Making the Q's dead to prevent and straight possible, and removing all bar 2 of the suit to prevent any flush:

AKs (effectively AKo) - 34%

So, according to PokerStove, AK has an EV of 34% unimproved at showdown (no flush possible, no straight possible, no A or K on the board).

DrPhysic

07-24-2004, 02:56 PM

pzhon and naphand,

Thank you for the explanation. I went back and read the original thread on probablility forum. Most of the problem with my understanding the answer was that I did not pose the question properly. Naphand’s result from pokerstove is really the answer I was looking for in the first place.

I agree that AK can be treated as a made hand hu. However, I think that may not be true on a full table and after an initial raiser. Under those circumstances, I think it has to be treated as a drawing hand.

I still feel that against a previous raiser Jedi needed to improve the hand to expect to be ahead, or at least far enough ahead to make a comfortable push, so I feel the comments re the play of the hands were fundamentally correct.

A personal note: I take all help offered when I am trying to learn something. No offense taken if my first two paragraphs were wrong and needed to be corrected. When I was a young Nerd studying physics and math, we tended to feel that our friends who had an abiding interest in statistics (and thermodynamics) belonged in the National Geek Honor Society. (Don’t take it wrong, I have some longstanding geek friends.) As with many others I survived my statistics courses. Now, of course, I have reason to be more interested in the subject and have to relearn it, at least as it applies to poker, 40 years later.

Doc

naphand

07-24-2004, 03:13 PM

I should add here, that I ran the SIM heads-up against a random hand. I have re-run the SIM cutting out a number of hands that you might expect players to fold to your PF raise. The results come out as follows (all conditions equal to first SIM bar the removal of worst hands):

Opponent plays all connectors to 54o, any 2-suited, any A/K/Q/J, offsuit 2-gappers to 75o, any pair.

AK - 29%

Opponents plays somewhat tighter, offsuit connectors to 78o, offsuit 2-gappers to 75o, all suited broadway, suited connectors to 54s and 64s plus T7s/T6s, any pair, any 2 offsuit broadway, any A/K/Q, any J from J6o.

AK - 25%

So the EV of a caller to your PF raise will drop considerably depending on their calling standards. Obviously you pick up EV from the folds, but from a post-flop perspective, your opponents standards do merit consideration.