age old folding AA question

[kyro]

Incredibly Hypothetical Situation here. But, since there are people that swear they would NEVER fold AA preflop, I'm curious if this situation would change anything.

You're in the BB, first hand of the 10 person SNG. UTG goes all-in. UTG+1 goes all in. MP1 goes all in. While you're trying to figure out what the hell just happened, the SB becomes the ninth person at the table to go all-in. You look at your cards...AA.

I tried looking at this from a mathematical standpoint. Let's say you call. AA has about a 30 percent chance of winning, and if AA wins, you win first place. If the tournament goes by a 2,3,5 payout, you'll win 5 buy-ins. IF you lose, you'll win .555 buy-ins. So on average you'll win 1.8889 buyins.

Now, let's say you fold. Even if you're the worst heads up player in the world, we can say you're guaranteed second place, for an average of 3 buy-ins.

I realize it's not a sure thing that only one person will win the first hand. There's a chance it will be a split pot, which I believe will lower your EV.

Even so, will this lower your EV below the 1.8889 average buy-in if you call? I did a sample where there was a .90 chance that 1 person won the first pot, while there was .10 chance two people split it. My numbers WERE arbitrary, but the EV was 2.56 buy-ins.

Am I crazy? I'm good with numbers normally, but am I way off here? Could folding AA possibly be greater EV than calling with it? Flame away. I could use the abuse if I'm wrong.

[B00T]

Easiest fold ever..

[ QUOTE ]
I realize it's not a sure thing that only one person will win the first hand. There's a chance it will be a split pot, which I believe will lower your EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone starts at whatever stack T1000 lets say. I think there is an extremely small chance for a split pot. Even if there is a split pot, thats 2 people still in besides yourself. You already doubled your buyin. If I had this opportunity every single tournament I would double each buyin in a matter of minutes. Your ROI would be >100% if just coming in 3rd every tournament. Obviously a few times you will be able to battle back and come in 1st.

I would bet a split pot would happen about 20% of the time on the first hand with 9 other all ins. 80% of the time you will be headsup with triple your buyin.

I don't see how anyone could ever NOT fold AA here.

[Cleveland Guy]

For a good response to this - go watch or sit in a play money tournament.

On Pokeroom - I have seen as many as 5 or 6 people go all in on the 1st or 2nd hand. I've joined in with like J8o - just for the fun of it.

The top hand very rarely seems to win this. People hit river trips, 2 pairs, inside straights all the time. It's a game of the lottery.

Fold the first hand- and thik of how little time it took you to make 3 buy ins!

[kyro]

OK, maybe it's a little more obvious than I thought. I've just heard people swear that they would "NEVER" fold AA no matter the circumstances. I just wanted to make sure I wasn't crazy.

[Vuron00]

Take your hypothetical a step further...

You're in a single table 13 person tournament. The 12 guys in front of you all go all-in. Each has a different pocket pair, 22 - KK, while you're the last to act with aces.

You know for a fact that at least 3 people will improve their hands and as many as 5 could improve. You have the same odds to improve as anybody else, but its a guarantee that AA will not win.

Do you fold? You bet your sweet arse you.

[Cleveland Guy]

you call - I fold.

No way for a split pot with this probability.

I take 2nd out of 13 in 1 hand- vs. a 1/13 chance to win on one hand.

YOu do the math.

[Vuron00]

lol.. i guess you got to read my response before I got to edit it.

No way would I call.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
You have the same odds to improve as anybody else, but its a guarantee that AA will not win.

Do you fold? You bet your sweet arse you.

[/ QUOTE ]
How many places pay? If it's winner-take-all, you have to call. You are going to win when you hit your set over everyone else's set, that's 1/5th of the time. Are you going to win 1/5th of the time when you start the second hand down 13:1 in chips? That seems very unlikely.

[C M Burns]

For some reason I was thinking of this very thing a couple weeks ago. Every thing has already been said but just for the hell of it a slightly different analyis would be: take 100 11$ t's like this (payout 50, 30 20). total buyin 1100 If you call you make 30 x 50= 1500, net 400. if you fold, to be ultra conservative lets say 20% of the time there is a split pot and you bust out and 80% average second so 80 x 30= 2400, net 1300, so its a no brain fold.