Is this Run to good to believe?

[Cleveland Guy]

I've been on here for a few days- so I am just starting to track my progress in a log to see how truly good or bad I'm doing.

In the last 3 days - I have spent just over 2 1/2 hours playing .5/1 HE - 5 people to the table

1st Day - 75 minutes, won 28BB
2nd Day - 40 Minutes - won 35BB
3rd Day - bout 30 Minutes - won 19 BB

3 different sessions - all played about the same.

I'm more impressed cause it happened over 3 different sessions - I left the first cause my kid was crying, the 2nd cause my wife needed the computer, and the 3rd because there was a show on I wanted to watch.

Did I just happen to luck out and get out before I went back down and took some tough losses?

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
Did I just happen to luck out and get out before I went back down and took some tough losses?

[/ QUOTE ]

You flipped heads 28, 35, and 19 times in a row. Odds are still 50/50 that it will flip heads or tails next.

[realbad101]

I don't think those rates are sustainable.I was averaging about 15BB/hour over several months, until recently. Is it me or has the level of play on party .5/1 gone up a bit over the last month or so?

[Cleveland Guy]

I'm not on party - but the rate for the most part on Pokeroom is fairly predictable.

My 2 favorites are when people play the Limit like it's NL - keep raising on AK no matter what the board holds and people who try and bully with a big stack. i.e - bringing 150 into a .50/1 game and raising any marginally good hand

[bennyk]

It is always great to run hot.

You seem to be winning roughly 33BB / hour.

It is essentially impossible to have continued success on the order you describe. More likely, your winnings will taper off to a more sustainable rate, though you may not have any huge losing sessions. Most pros and posters here have winning rates between 1-4 BB/hour.

Play the rush while you're on it!
bk

[Cleveland Guy]

I know that I can't keep up at 33BB /Hour

I had thought I was upwards of 6-8 BB an hour before joining, so I've decided to track.

At what point can I get a fair read?

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
...though you may not have any huge losing sessions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahahahahaha. Good one!

[ QUOTE ]
Most pros and posters here have winning rates between 1-4 BB/hour.

[/ QUOTE ]

We like to look at things in terms of BB/100, since an "hour" can mean anything from 30-35 hands (at a B&M game) to 500 hands (for those that play, say 6-8 tables at a time, especially shorthanded.)

Your win rate over this sample is beyond irrelevant. 10,000 hands is a drop in the bucket. The ~200 hands he poster is reporting on (assuming he's playing 1 table at a time) is, like, less than a drop in the bucket.

I congratulate him on running good, though. It sure is fun.

[ QUOTE ]
Play the rush while you're on it!
bk

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh. "Rushes" only exist in the past. I do, however, encourage the poster to gambool.

[bennyk]

You will need to log many more (1000's) hours of play before you can get a rate that is approaching "reliable."

Paying too much attention to your BB/hour can lead you to make changes that are based upon an often misleading statistic. For example, a lower hourly rate may indicate that you have a leak in your strategy, but it could also just mean that you are playing in tougher games and have a lower expecation.

Many on 2+2 will suggest PokerTracker software, which allows you to import your playing history and organizes statistics for you.
bk

[bennyk]

[ QUOTE ]

Ugh. "Rushes" only exist in the past. I do, however, encourage the poster to gambool.

[/ QUOTE ]

rushes are, like, so 3 weeks ago.

It would be hard to disagree that you can get additional profit out of a "rush" if you take advantage of how the table views your success. That's all i meant.
bk

[flair1239]

I just started serious tracking about a week ago, and have had a couple fantastic sessions as well. It is my experience as a electrical contractor that you need some "jobs" to pay off at a high percentage, to make up for the ones that don't. For instance if I have 2 or 3 jobs that gross 30%, I don't expect that to be my norm. I just see it as making up for the ones that merely break even or worse yet lose money; and hopefully at the end of the year I have grossed 12-15%.

I look at my poker sessions the same way. You need those monster sessions occasionally, to make up for the times that you are running at or near breakeven. This is also why it is important to play your big hands aggresively and try not to miss any bets.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Ugh. "Rushes" only exist in the past. I do, however, encourage the poster to gambool.

[/ QUOTE ]

rushes are, like, so 3 weeks ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
It would be hard to disagree that you can get additional profit out of a "rush" if you take advantage of how the table views your success. That's all i meant.
bk

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. This is a different concept than what is generally implied by "play the rush," though.