AliasMrJones
07-21-2004, 04:43 PM
About 6 months or so ago, I spent some time analyzing my limit stats, SD, win rate, how many hours until I can be sure I'm a winner, bankroll requirements.
Lately, I've been playing $11 Party SnG's and doing very well. I wanted to compare my SnG stats to my 2/4 limit stats and try to apply some of the same formulas to get similar answers for SnG's.
I decided to use 1 SnG as my base unit rather than 1 hour as I had for limit and I have a win rate of 8.44 and a SD of 18.27. I put the net result of each SnG into openoffice.org spreadsheet and used the average and SD functions to get those numbers. My sample size is 54.
According to my limit formula, which in openoffice.org-speak is
=(NORMSINV(confidence level)*SD/Win Rate)^2 with 99% confidence my break even number is 25.37 tournaments.
Also, with those stats and for 99% chance of not going broke, openoffice.org formula
-((SD^2)/(2*Win Rate))*LN(Confidence Level) the required bankroll is 90.87 or rounded up to entry fees, $110, or 10 entries.
My question is -- is this valid? The math is the same so it appears to me like it should be.
(I know my sample size is small, but it is all I have atm. While I can't be confident that my win rate is going to hold, according to the math, I believe I can say with confidence that I am at least above breakeven.)
Lately, I've been playing $11 Party SnG's and doing very well. I wanted to compare my SnG stats to my 2/4 limit stats and try to apply some of the same formulas to get similar answers for SnG's.
I decided to use 1 SnG as my base unit rather than 1 hour as I had for limit and I have a win rate of 8.44 and a SD of 18.27. I put the net result of each SnG into openoffice.org spreadsheet and used the average and SD functions to get those numbers. My sample size is 54.
According to my limit formula, which in openoffice.org-speak is
=(NORMSINV(confidence level)*SD/Win Rate)^2 with 99% confidence my break even number is 25.37 tournaments.
Also, with those stats and for 99% chance of not going broke, openoffice.org formula
-((SD^2)/(2*Win Rate))*LN(Confidence Level) the required bankroll is 90.87 or rounded up to entry fees, $110, or 10 entries.
My question is -- is this valid? The math is the same so it appears to me like it should be.
(I know my sample size is small, but it is all I have atm. While I can't be confident that my win rate is going to hold, according to the math, I believe I can say with confidence that I am at least above breakeven.)