QQ on the river

[PrayingMantis]

Hi all,

3rd hand into a Stars $60 Turbo. 9 playes in, blinds 10/20. Folded to me on UTG+1, and I raise to 80 with Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Only button calls. Me and button have about 1500 each.

Flop: 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. (pot: 150)

Flop looks good. I bet 100. Button calls.

Turn: 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (pot: 350)

I bet 320. Button calls.

River: J /images/graemlins/spade.gif (pot: 990)

We both have about 1000. Your move?

[Stoneii]

Bluff catcher's check call

stoneii

[BradleyT]

Min bet T20.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Min bet T20.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a bad idea.

[BradleyT]

Of course I was just kidding. This is a tough hand.

I think he might have had JJ and hit his two outer on the river or he has 99 and you have him beat. It really sucks that you're first to act.

If you check will he go all in with TT/JJ/88 since you were leading the whole way, the pot is large, you might put him on a steal? Or if he had one of those hands he might try to sell the pot to you for 300-600 which you might sense as weakness and call.

I think I would check call a less than all in. If it were an all in I might have to flip a coin on whether or not to call. About the only hand you can beat is 99 or AT.

[Jman28]

Yeah, I definitely like the check call or min bet.
What do you do if he pots it or pushes though?

[Jason Strasser]

Value bet, unless u have some read, which I will assume you don't because its early. Wouldn't he pop you back on the turn with AA or KK? I suppose a set is a possibility, as I could see myself playing TT or 88 (quads) like this.

I think a min-bet is terrible. Why would you invite him to play back at you? Do you want him to call you with just a ten? I also do not like the whole bluff catching thing. I don't think your hand is good enough to check/call. I push because thats the only bet I can make at this point, making any other substantial bet you'd have to call a raise with, so might as well go all-in. The only hand I really could see your opponent that beats you is TT or 88. I would also bet more on the flop. I like to overbet the pot in this spot vs. the slight underbet. I think 200 is good.

I think not betting is a mistake. There are way too many hands that pay you off. Plus is he missed a draw, which is possible, then you won't be able to be pushed off your hand.

To all you who say check, do you call an all-in?

-Jason

[Stoneii]

If I convinced myself he was playing AJ or AT diamonds yes.

[Jason Strasser]

Hmm.

I dunno, I guess you have a point, but I find it easier to push here, and I don't think its wrong to do so.

The two cold calls are a little odd though.

[MercTec]

I think its a very badly played busted flush draw. He had odds to call the 100, but not the 320...implied odds not withstanding. If a diamond spikes on the river, what do you do I think is the question. I value bet the river here.

[Kidd_King]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm.

I dunno, I guess you have a point, but I find it easier to push here, and I don't think its wrong to do so.

The two cold calls are a little odd though.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is wierd. I'd start thinking, a busted flush draw, or made trips. I'd make a final bet, because a bettor be, a caller never be. If he reraises me, I know I'm dead. If he calls, and he turns over a winner, I'd say nice hand, get right back into the game.

[patrick dicaprio]

why bet all in when the only person that will call is one who beats you?

pat

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
If I convinced myself he was playing AJ or AT diamonds yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think ATd would have raised me on the flop. That's part of the reason I underbet the pot, to induce a raise, so I can re-raise big against hands like that, and still make draws make a mistake by calling. AJs is a possibility, but since he played it so passively, by chasing, I don't see him pushing against me on the river, if he hits his TPTK. That's why I'm not so sure about checking. Tough spot.

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
why bet all in when the only person that will call is one who beats you?

pat

[/ QUOTE ]

If you were the opponent with AA or KK and the original poster goes all in with his QQ is it a no-brainer call?

[PrayingMantis]

Hi Jason,

I didn't really mean mini-bet is a good option, and BradlyT was also joking. Anyway, to the points you make:

Value-betting is tricky here, because of the sizes of stacks and pot. I don't think pushing is a value bet, as I will usually get called by hands that beat me, more than not, unless he's a really loose caller. Actually, with that river, the only hand I beat that will call all-in is probably AJs.

Value bettin for less than an all-in is tricky too, since it should probably be much smaller than the current pot. However, there is some sense in thinking that if I check, some hands I beat (and that will fold to an all-in), will bluff against me. What hands? actually, not many.

I think it's a tricky spot, because there are actually more probable hands that beat me here, than hands I beat (if he is not a complete fish). If he IS a complete fish (with some busted draw), he should be a huge fish in order to call a substential bet on the river with some A high. What I'm saying is that I can not see many hands that pay me here, unless I bet some smaller-than-pot bet. Yep, it sucks.

As to the bet on the flop. I think over-betting the pot would have been the better move if it was a Party structure. But here, I can comfortably make him make mistakes, and still get out of the hand, without losing too much of my stack, if I think he made his draw by making a bad call. That's why I prefered a 2/3 pot bet. I'm not saying it's the best option though. His call on the turn is clearly what made me worried.

[fnurt]

I vote for check-call. I don't believe in making 3 value bets in NL.

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks for all the replies.

I decide to take the middle road, and made it 350 on the river, figuring there's a bigger chance he'll call with some hands I beat, that will fold to a push. If I was to face a reraise, I decided to act upon how I feel. Anyway, even if I fold, staying with 650 is still very far from desperate at these stages.

He called with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif. And took it down. Certainly a passive player, and pretty loose one too.

I don't particularly like the way I've played the flop and the river. I should consider other options next time I'm facing a similar situation.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
why bet all in when the only person that will call is one who beats you?


[/ QUOTE ]

Surely AT and AJ will always call here.

Regards ML

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Surely AT and AJ will always call here.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think AT's pattern will usualy look different on the flop. And the only reasonable AJ here, is AJ diamonds. Only *one* way to have this hand.

Anyway, the real question is how many hands that beat you will FOLD to an all-in, and the answer is about zero, I believe, against most opponents who played it that way. And if you compare the hands that beat you and call, to the the hands you beat and call - well, there are more hands that beat you, IMO. That's why I think pushing is problematic.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
I think AT's pattern will usualy look different on the flop. And the only reasonable AJ here, is AJ diamonds. Only *one* way to have this hand.

Anyway, the real question is how many hands that beat you will FOLD to an all-in, and the answer is about zero, I believe, against most opponents who played it that way. And if you compare the hands that beat you and call, to the the hands you beat and call - well, there are more hands that beat you, IMO. That's why I think pushing is problematic.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah of course you are correct, it looks more like a draw/made hand.

Regards ML

[Jason Strasser]

I'm still lost on this one.

Why do you bet 350? Are you folding to an all-in?

[PrayingMantis]

The thinking behind me betting 350 went something like that:

I don't know this player. He is calling me down from PF to turn. More chances he is not the best player, even if we think of it in pure statistical manner. So, he's a passive player, probably a loose one too (this part of my thinking was not results-oriented).

So, I'm thinking he might call some not-so-big bet with a hand I beat, but fold to a bigger bet. Since I've decided to categorize him as a passive player, I should respect an all-in raise by him, most of the time, and probably fold (I'll be getting 3.6:1 on the final 650 call). Against an aggressive player my original river bet is bad. Against a passive player it might have some value, specifically against some hands with a T in them, and of course AJ diamonds.

The fact that he only CALLED my bet with his trips, suggests that my overall read was pretty accurate, I think. It doesn't mean my bet was the best move, of course.

That was my thinking. I'm pretty sure pushing is a clear mistake. I believe checking, with an option to call up to a certain point, is very valid.

[Jason Strasser]

Perhaps you are right about pushing, I'm definitely willing to back off it a bit, as there are very good arguments for check/calling. I think this hand would've played better if you overbet the pot on the flop and then pushed the turn. That's the line I'd probably take on this hand.

On your river, I prefer checking over betting small for sure.