Hand history

[unfrgvn]

Not an earth shattering question here, just sanity checking:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed)

Hero (t1455)
UTG (t3770)
Button (t705)
SB (t2070)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t600) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>

SB bets t300,

As far as reads, he had been average, perhaps on the passive side. My best guess for his hand was over cards. So do you fold or push?

[HighStack]

Tell us why you would think to push I'm interested. What did you do and what happened? That hand is ranked 917 out of 1082 possible hands. (84.66% of hands might be better)

[Cleveland Guy]

I fold -

I'm assuming top 3 place - and your on the bubble. Button is gonna lost most his stack next time the blind come to him - so you might get 3rd and ITM just by folding.

Also - your chasing with a 9 High Flush Draw. Is that what you want to risk your tournament on?

If he has 2 over cards- you have 15 outs - or about 30%. If his 2 over cards are hearts, your down to 6 outs.

He also was the small blind and just limped in. he could have had 10-9, K7, A5, etc. Any of those limit you to 9-12 outs.

I don't see anyway your greater than a 30% chance to win the hand - and it seems like a large risk to take with the chance I might no place

[HighStack]

[ QUOTE ]
Also - your chasing with a 9 High Flush Draw. Is that what you want to risk your tournament on?


[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Jason Strasser]

This has everything to do with this player's previous betting patterns. A lot of poor players get into the habit of completing from the SB when folded to, and mini-betting every flop.

Against a player like this I have absolutely no problem moving over the top with a flush draw. If this player had a tight image, and was solid, this is a very easy muck.

So, it depends on what you are dealing with here. I like to play back at a person who does this one too many times, and this is a good enough hand IMO to try something.

[unfrgvn]

First let me say I appreciate the reply.

[ QUOTE ]
I fold -

I'm assuming top 3 place - and your on the bubble. Button is gonna lost most his stack next time the blind come to him - so you might get 3rd and ITM just by folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

This did flash through my mind. But if he catches a hand and doubles up then I'm on the short stack. I used to always play it the way you are reccomending, which is one reason I'm posting this.

[ QUOTE ]
Also - your chasing with a 9 High Flush Draw. Is that what you want to risk your tournament on?

[/ QUOTE ]

Normally no. I felt that mathmatically the chances of him having two hearts were small, since I had 2 and there were 2 on board. Obviously I'm not looking to get called here.

[ QUOTE ]
He also was the small blind and just limped in. he could have had 10-9, K7, A5, etc. Any of those limit you to 9-12 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, his range of hands is much larger than just 2 over cards. Still, his bet either represented a hand he didn't want to get called with or a very big hand. I was hoping it was the former.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see anyway your greater than a 30% chance to win the hand - and it seems like a large risk to take with the chance I might no place

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm only 30% if he calls. I certainly thought there was good chance he would lay it down.

Results in white:
<font color="white"> I did push. He called with 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif, OESD. The turn is a 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for the made str8 and the river is a blank. I'm out. I still think pushing was probably the right play, I was hoping this was the sort of hand he would lay down. According to two dimes after the flop I was 44% to win, he was 43%, and 13% to split. </font>

[Cleveland Guy]

I'll admit you lost a hand he probably made a very loose call on. Your play was strong - but very very risky.

I still don't like the play - but that's just me, and if we each played the same way- what fun would the game be?