A Hand With A Twist

20-40 holdem


A fairly typical player raises in early position, a well-respected pro three-bets in late position, I call three bets on the button with QQ, blinds fold, the original raiser calls.


Flop: 7-3-2 two spades first player checks, pro bets, I raise, first player folds, pro reraises, I call....


Turn: 6 of spades (I have the Q of spades) pro bets, I raise, with the likely intention of checking the river....pro three-bets!!! After some contemplation I call realizing that I may be drawing almost dead to AA w/ spade or even AK of spades....the pro rarely gets out of line on later betting rounds but he has lost quite a few big pots recently.


River: blank pro bets, I call.


All comments welcome; results and "the twist" to follow. I'm going to try to hold off for a little while but I may not be able to stand it(not posting the rest now) so please try to comment before reading the conclusion and please read the follow-up, it's very important(to me atleast) and may be atleast somewhat interesting to others.


Thanks,


Mike

I'd be able to give you my read on his hand, however wrong it may be, if you hadn't thrown in the "twist" bit Mike.


In the world of twist, though, the stuck pro just said "Screw it" and three bet pre-flop with 72o.

I'll bet I'm missing something.


Because the queen of spades might be an out for you, I'd be less inclined to make this raise on the turn. It would seem to me that you are either a). In deep trouble, b). In good shape, or c). Have a reasonable number of outs. Unless you thought he could lay down AA,KK, or QQ, I don't understand the raise. ??? Maybe the "twist" (whatever it is) will clear things up for me...

As John sang, "and here's another clue for you all...."


Seriously, the "twist" to this hand is almost totally irrelevent to the hand, well sort of....that is to say, it's not a trick question. I'll post the results and the twist soon, I just really want to see exactly what people think about the play of the hand, given the information known(so far...sorry, really though, no trick...well not much of one) before I post all of the gory details. I agree with Kevin's point about the turn raise being questionable given the circumstances.


The rest soon....and if you look at this after I've posted the rest(and haven't already commented) any pre-reading-of-the-results(and silly twist-thing) comments are appriciated.


Thanks again,


Mike

Mike,


Can't think of what the "twist" is, unless he has the other two Q's, or unless he has the 4,5 of Spades and then you're screwed.

I was really hoping to get a little more analysis of the hand as I presented it, but I guess Kevin, pretty much covered it(thanks Kev), atleast what seems to be a pretty ill advised raise by QQ on the turn.


Results: The pro has As-Kc(fifteen busted outs)....QQ wins.


The twist: Guess who the "pro" really is.....yep, goofy ME!!! The holder of QQ is a rapidly improving player, very studious, running very well, playing(I think) as well as he has to date, though can be erratic--who the hell am I to say, I sure look like the erratic one this hand.


Here's my thoughts anyway: when I three-bet preflop he gives me a good hard look and calls the three bets cold.....I figure him for QQ or JJ, very likely wouldn't have a pair worse than JJ, maybe another AK(more likely suited? I don't know if he'd call three bets cold with AKo); almost no other hands seem likely not even AQs.


Still, as I pointed out in my original post, I, the "big pro(heavy sarcasm)" had taken quite a few beats for quite a lot of money(which I, duh, realize shouldn't matter) and didn't want to get blown off this hand by another AK or worse(which commonsense and hindsight indicated shouldn't have been the case), besides I figured I had outs, if only the running flush(or possibility of which might have enable some manuvering--boy did it ever)....so I three bet him....WAY OVERPLAYED!!!


When he raised me on the turn, I thought...what an opportunity....do I have a chance to make this raise cost him the pot?....hence the three-bet....not a play I would make very often(like almost never), but I still think I like it....he thought for quite a while....if only he didn't have the Q of spades(though he later denied that it had any bearing on his decision---I don't believe him---am I just being as stubborn as I was DURING the hand?)...I still like the play, I think it really almost worked(do I sound too much like Phil Helmuth, oh well, there could be worse things, though maybe not many at 20-40 limit holdem)....anyway, how the hell can he call???!!! If I have AA with the A of spades he's dead to two outs and if I have AKs he's drawing dead, did he pause just to save face if/when the "pro" showed him the nuts...I know that people do that....OK, I'm almost done ranting....how bad is his raise on the turn(that made him an extra 120--I could have atleast left bad enough alone and kept it to 80--I'll get to that in a minute)? If he's drawing as thin or dead as he could have been, he certainly could have cost himself an extra 80. Ok, I am NOW done ranting.


My bet on the river is terrible, he's definately going to call now....I might has well have just taken two twenties out of my pocket and burned them in an ashtray....


Oh well, live and learn, I forgive myself(not the first or last time I'll have to do that I'm afraid--I hate the word too Vince, but not so much in this context).


Did I miss anything? Fire away if you want, any other thoughts are welcome.


Thanks,


Mike

Mike:


I think your preflop play and your raise on the flop is pretty straightforward. I am a little confused by your turn raise. You've been 3 bet on the flop with a fairly innocuous board. You have described the pro as rarely getting out of line in later betting rounds. I guess at the point of the 3-bet on the flop I am putting a player described as such on a set, a pocket pair of 10's or larger, or AK with at minimum the ace of spades.


Now on the turn when a spade falls the pro bets through it. I have to believe if the pro has an overpair he has a VERY large redraw. i.e. the ace of spades. You have given him reasons to believe you could have spades. However if the pro does hold the ace of trump, he can safely assume you do not have a flush, for any two suited cards from you other than a suited ace would have hit the muck preflop.


So at this point I think your raise is not going to get the pro to fold, making it a very dangerous play. I prefer calling at this point.


However, you do raise and are promptly 3-bet. At this point, I think you are drawing thin. You have outs to beat a set, or a bizarre flush. The set is obviously the more probable of these two. It is extremely possible the pro has your queen of spades trumped. In other words, I don't like your chances the moment you are 3-bet. I have to believe that calling the 3-bet is an $80 decision. For if you call here you are calling on the river regardless of card. I do believe that this whole thought process can be avoided by simply calling on the turn.


Matt

Matt,


Thanks for the input, I agree fully with you about how the QQ should be played. Did I not make it clear that I WAS/AM the "pro" with the As-Kc and not the QQ? I'll look again.


Mike

Mike -


I did post my first thoughts before reading this one. But here are my thoughts now knowing the results.


I do not like the play of QQ, i.e. I hate the turn raise. I think he has to desperately hope that you (the pro :-)) has stepped out of line for him to have a chance. The real twist of this hand is that had the button simply called on the turn, this debate would be moot. QQ would have taken down this hand. Personally that would have been my play.


I agree that your river bet was futile. No solid player is folding after calling on the turn. I believe I even mentioned that calling on the turn by QQ was an $80 decision in my other post.


I think your play does have merit on the turn, however it is QUITE player dependent. I think what is possibly the biggest value of your play is that next time you will likely be called again by a hand drawing as thin as he was against your represented hand. I hope my ramblings make sense.


(By the way - we have played together, my name is Matt, a friend of Kevin's. I probably only make it over to your room once a month). (I just say this so you might know who was typing on this end).


Good luck,

Matt

I just read your other post, these thoughts came before I read the results. I posted my additional thoughts below the results post.


Matt

Matt,


Gotcha, I've been up over 24 hrs(no wonder I can't even follow my own thread), gotta reset my body clock, and no, I'm not playing today. Yes, I know who you are, and I appreciate your input. Player dependent, yes I agree(I obviously thought that this might be a good spot), I was talking with a friend who felt the same way, though I actually think(and I know this probably sounds a little crazy) that this play should work against a surprisingly wide range of players among those who would have made the same raise on the turn....but obviously not this player, atleast not this time....maybe I have a tell /images/wink.gif . The friend also quickly suggested that I'll get very good action from this player in the future, I hope so.


Thanks again,


Mike

I for one, LOVE your turn play! If his raise on 4th was indeed a mistake (and I believe it was), then your 3-bet becomes brilliant, because it totally exploits this mistake! I've made this play myself maybe 2-3 times in the last 2000 hours. The conditions have to be almost perfect for it, but they do occur.


I'll never admit this for sure, but you might have won that hand from me. When the 4th spade fails to fall, even though the pot is big, it's the combination of your 3-bet on the turn combined with your 3-bet on the flop that might get me to believe my QQ is worthless.


btw- What ABOUT that 3-bet of yours on the flop? I'm more curious what your thinking was for that play, since you said yourself you put him on an over-pair when he called 3 cold pre-flop... Seems like a risky play, but I'm currently debating with a friend of mine the merits of game theory (or maybe it's simply getting out of line once in a while) with AK. (I believe it should be played like AA once in a while, and he doesn't).

Kevin,


Thanks for the kind analysis. I probably three-bet the flop for the same reason that you suggested. Like I said in the results, this is an overplay, but one that costs only one small bet and should make my opponent back off a little(didn't work this time), if by any chance he doesn't have quite as strong a hand as I suspect then he could fold. I'm not sure that I've thought so much about the playing of AK as if it were AA, I tend not to try it very often, though obviously I'm capable of it....think I'm generally gunshy toward this play because I tried it so often early in my career(a few years ago, anyway), it too often didn't work. Can't get too tricky in our games, they don't think/act at real high levels of sophistication....even the play of this hand didn't work against one of the few players against whom I thought it would, though he would be susceptible to a similar type of play under similar circumstance.....at least some of the time...I think. So there y' go. Who the hell knows.


Talk to you later,


Mike

I like none of the raises at all. I think calling down from the flop on, and betting the river if checked to, is the best play in these spots.


I think calling is best pre-flop.


Dan Z.

Here's the problem with playing the AK so fast, it is pretty suspicious -


on the flop, you 3 bet. If you had AA or KK, why would you not check-raise the turn, as your opponent is screaming "QQ" with his play. Perhaps AsKs, but this is impossible gven your hand).


Since he is screaming QQ, it is strange for you to not wait to raise with AA or KK. Also, by 3 betting, you have built the pot up, so he will be more inclined to call.


A flop call and turn check-raise may have given you either a free card or a reasonable chance to win, both of which are a lot better than what happened.

Dan-


Do you really prefer calling raises with AKo pre-flop, rather than re-raising? Why?

Dan,


Thanks for the input. I agree with your last statement, and obviously I could have gotten away from this hand cheaper. As to always looking for the checkraise in this spot(when I have AA) well, occassionally I do, but often I don't. I HATE(hate, hate.....)giving free cards and quite often(maybe more than others) play a strong hand as fast as possible, especially when out of position. My more observant opponents are aware of this and therefore don't know when I'm pounding a hand if I just have a good hand, a great hand or semi-bluff. I'm starting to ramble, but the point I'm trying to make is that it's often not worth trying for the extra half bet; and even this may not work out when an opponent folds who might have been sucked in for the whole ride if he never faced a bigger checkraise. Of course, that's not really the point in this hand and if I had had AA I would have made the max and it would have been quite a payoff. I guess I just got caught trying to play AK like AA....doesn't happen to often. I also got caught trying something that was either far too sophisticated or just plain stupid.


Thanks again,


Mike

did I say that? I don't think so, but if I did, sorry and I never do it and don't think anyone should - except sometimes from the BB.


Dan Z.

I also think it's not a bad play when you are on the button and some guy in late position raises after several limpers. You can 3 bet if you think you can knock off some dudes and get some dead money in but that rarely works in the games that I play. Consequently, I often just coldcall with AK. If the flop comes favourable, I can normally get a field thinning raise in on the flop or turn as the bet will likely come from the preflop raiser who is close to my right. This field thinning raise is tough to make in those instances where I have 3 bet preflop.

Sorry, my never,never comment is only for facing a raise alone, mulitway pots are different. You should never cold call if only the raiser has voluntarily entered the pot.


Dan Z.

Sorry Dan-


I thought you were talking to Sunglasses Mike (who had AK), when you stated, "I think calling is best pre-flop." But you probably were referring to the guy who held QQ. Sorry again.

"You should never cold call if only the raiser has voluntarily entered the pot."


"Never" is a pretty strong word. Sometimes (not very often) if the game is super tight behind me and I'm in a later position with AK, I might just call a raise from a guy who plays weak/tightish. Sometimes I like to pop a guy like this on the turn (even with my AK bust) and depending on what the board is, I can represent a few more hands. I think it's important to once in a while put a guy (who might also have AK) to a tough decision on 4th street.

I really do mean never in this case. The reason is that calling will let others in, esp the blinds, and this will dramatically reduce your win %, a lot more than it helps the pot size. Ditto for middle pairs. 3 betting is mandatory for similar reasons.


You reraise in hopes of having the raiser's high cards dominated (or at least beaten). A tough decision on the turn happens after an unimproved hand gets 3 bet and bet at from a tight player with position. Against many players, it is better to check behind and catch a bluff on the turn, but I digress.


I used to occaisionally cold call raises in weak tight online games. These were from late postion raisers who likely had a better hand than I did, but not neccessarily a premium hand. I did this becuse the blinds almost always folded, and I could raise every flop and steal about 2/3 of the time.

The flop raise was more effective because it said "Aha, I hit." But I did this with hands like KQ and medium suited connectors. AK and 99 still went upstairs.


I woudld never try such silliness unless both the raiser and the blinds were very tight, and viewed me the same way.


Dan Z.


Dan Z.

You are very good at finding the ambiguity in my posts. I should have been more clear - my fault.


Dan Z.

"I really do mean never in this case. The reason is that calling will let others in, esp the blinds,...."


But I did say if the game was VERY tight behind me. This means if someone DID come in behind me, my AK was in trouble anyway.


"...and this will dramatically reduce your win %, a lot more than it helps the pot size. Ditto for middle pairs. 3 betting is mandatory for similar reasons."


True. But again, let's not forgot that the possibility does exist that you are already behind to the original pre-flop raiser. In this case, you are the one who is drawing and while it still might be important to get it heads-up, can we at least say that it might be slightly less important?


"You reraise in hopes of having the raiser's high cards dominated (or at least beaten). A tough decision on the turn happens after an unimproved hand gets 3 bet and bet at from a tight player with position. Against many players, it is better to check behind and catch a bluff on the turn, but I digress."


You lost me here. Against 2 opponents who each put in 3 bets on the flop, and one who is willing to lead on the turn, I don't think folding an AK bust is a tough decision at all. It probably should've been folded on the flop. ??? Or are you referring to a heads-up situation? I didn't think so, since you mentioned a player with position on you betting the turn, who you already tried to eliminate by 3-beting pre-flop. Sorry I'm confused.


"Against many players, it is better to check behind and catch a bluff on the turn, but I digress."


I agree. This play can be very productive against the right player. But I'm not sure failing to re-raise pre-flop takes this play away (assuming your pre-flop judgement was correct and the hand is playing heads-up).


I'm not going to try too hard to disagree with you, because in fact, I do agree that AK should almost always be re-raised pre-flop to get heads-up (or short-handed). My only problem was with the use of the word "never". I don't think that word should be in a hold'em player's vocabulary. Once in a while, the moon and the stars will align properly (along with all other conditions) to make a change in play correct. Even though it's rare.

I was referring to a heads up pot, in the very likely scenario that your opponent also has AK.


As far as nevers, there are plenty - never call a bet with 23 unimproved, never check the nuts on the button when check to on the last round, and there are plenty of others.


The problem with not 3 betting the AK is that any pocket pair in the BB should play for 1 bet against 2 players, and letting in such a hand will be extremely expensive, especially since you hope that your hand is slightly dead. So I never, ever do it if I can get heads up, except sometimes in the BB.


Dan Z.

To me, my problem with the hand came with the 3-bet on the flop out of position. Knowing that the button respects your play, and knowing him as well as you do, it is very unlikely that he would 1) call your raise preflop with less than QQ or AK suited, 2) raise on the flop with AK against your preflop 3-bet, or raise without the nut flush draw.

After his raise on the flop, you have to realize that you are on a complete steal to his hand at this point. Although you may have outs with an A or K, or running flush, at minimum he has you tied and that is very unlikely. Overplaying your hand out of position here can only cost you chips.

The only way you can get him to lay his hand down with these circumstances is if he has you tied, or an A or K hits the board.