Party 2/4 KQo Hand [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Piiop

07-21-2004, 06:54 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG is a great player to have at the table. He limps about 60-70% of the time and loves to cold-call. Any flop in an unraised pot he'll bet if checked to. He LOVES to check-raise the flop especially if he's check-raising the preflop raiser. He has check-raised the flop with as little as a gutshot str8 draw. However he also does it with top pair, middle pair, bottom pair. If he has trips or better he'll wait to the turn to raise. He does fold on the turn or river against aggression. I've seen him call down with bottom pair a couple times, but not against a lot of aggression. He has been giving out some serious suck-outs, however he has been pretty much giving his winnings to me, so I'll call him ATM.

MP1 is a pretty poor player in general. He's trying to exploit UTG's looseness, except that all he is doing is being way too aggressive with mediocre hands and putting himself on tilt. He seems to be giving some respect to myself and 1 other good player at the table. Most of his aggression is in pots with UTG.

The BB is a very weak calling station. He doesn't raise JJ preflop but he really enjoys calling with basically anything.

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $2.
UTG (ATM) calls, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, 5 folds, BB calls, UTG (ATM) calls, Hero calls.

While MP1 has been too aggressive post-flop, I haven't seen a whole lot of preflop action from him so I take this 3-bet to be a big pair or AK.

Flop: (13.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
BB checks, ATM checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets, BB calls, ATM raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 folds, BB folds, ATM calls.

Here's what I was thinking: UTG could be check-raising this with anything. Could be 37 no spades, a pair of 5's, an Ace, or QsX. He would wait for the turn with a flopped flush. If I 3-bet, MP1 is going to have fold KK, QQ, AQ (don't know if he would 3-bet this preflop or not), and possibly even AK since I have the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Not sure what the BB is going to do. However, if UTG doesn't have an A, I can give myself 5 more outs (3 more K's plus 2 Qs on top of the 9 spades). Also, UTG could still have no pair.

Turn: (10.75 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
ATM checks, Hero bets, ATM calls.

Take a free card here? UTG will probably not fold any hand he here, except maybe a gutshotstraight with no spades. However, if I check and miss on the river, he won't fold a 4 or 5 there. If I bet, and bet again on the river even if I miss, he may fold a small pair.

River: (12.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
ATM checks, Hero...

Ok, so nothing got there which sucks, but will UTG fold if I bet? Or a better question, will he fold at least once out of 12 times?

All comments appreciated.

StableHand

07-21-2004, 07:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
will he fold at least once out of 12 times?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes! He has QsX, or
No! He has 43o.
Bet!

DanDell

07-21-2004, 07:28 AM

I really would've just called UTG's raise on the turn, primarily b/c you havent made your flush yet. You only have an approx. 12% chance to hit your K by the river, but, even if you limit it to you and UTG, I don't see you winning it with pair of Ks. Seeming aggressive from your characterization of UTG, he could have reraised with Ax to represent the flush. More importantly, there is still the chance of him having a smaller flush & playing it quickly. So, If you had just called the raise, which the BB may also have called, you could still have dragged a huge pot ( and poss. keep two more players in) if you made your flush w/o paying 2 more bets (reraise and turn) to see that last card. ANyway, even with your reraise, the ONLY logical reason to reraise is to take a free card- knocking MP1 is just lessor byproduct. You could hit that K since you think it could win or flush.

Piiop

07-21-2004, 07:33 AM

Dandell,

UTG did not raise the turn, he check-raised the flop. If I do shut out everyone but UTG, my chances of winning if I hit a K or Q but no flush are very high. Like I said before, UTG frequently check-raises the flop with less than TP. He would not play a flopped flush the way he played that flop.

colgin

07-21-2004, 08:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Or a better question, will he fold at least once out of 12 times?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you betting for value or as a bluff? I think you have a very thin value bet at best.

It sounds like you are betting as a bluff. Then, the question is willl your opponent fold a better hand (e.g., a low pair) at least one out of thirteen times. If he will never fold on the river when he has any piece of the board then you should not bet. If he might fold a better hand then how often?

By the way, if you think you might have a thin value bet here because your opponent is the type of player who would call with just Queen high (remember you have the nut non pair) then you should never be bluffing. If he will call with Queen high then he will certainly call with a pair.

All the best,

Colgin

Joshua

07-21-2004, 10:55 AM

- I would have limped preflop since I'm in early position.

- On the flop I wouldn't have reraised since I want to keep BB and/or MP1 in the hand.

- The only reason to bet the turn is to keep showing strength and to make a river bluff possible. If you don't think a river bet is profital I think it's better to take the free-card on the turn.

Piiop

07-21-2004, 11:13 AM

I checked behind and the BB wins the pot with 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

I think considering the pot size, the times he folds a better hand, and the times he has nothing and folds, and since I bet the turn make this a bet on the river. No idea if he would've called or not.

Joshua

07-21-2004, 02:01 PM

I thought about this hand on the train to Stockholm and I understand your reasoning for 3-betting the flop. It all depends on how likely it is for ATM to have an ace since you're trying to get heads-up with him and either want to be heads-up against a non-ace where a K or Q might win it or in a large multiway pot with the nut-flush-draw. If someone else has an ace it's not so bad since he probably will not 4-bet and ATM will call so in that case you'll have the nut-flush-draw in a large multiway pot. When seeing the results and what ATM is capable of holding I think you made a nice play on the flop. But a word of advice: most of my friends consider me a maniac with capital letters...

Jdanz

07-21-2004, 02:23 PM

the idea that he should never bet the turn is way off, if utg was playing anything other then a flush draw there is at the very least a possibility he'll fold certainly more then a 1/size of pot chance. I'm not saying never take a free card here, but betting the turn is a far from ridiculous play, given that you bet the turn bet the river, there are a lot of hands that will fold here.

-JDanz