What's My Action?

[Shalara]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Shalara is UTG with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Shalara raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, <font color="CC3333">Shalara caps</font>, Button calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Shalara bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Shalara 3-bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (7.66 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Shalara bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Shalara 3-bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (13.66 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Shalara ?

Button seems pretty solid for the most part. Hasn't done anything out of line, pretty much played ABC. Slows down when facing aggression, even with TPGK.

What's my action? Play okay to this point?

[Joe826]

Hey Shalara,

Tough decision here, but I think you have a river bet here because: Button's action seems to put him/her on an overpair. Probably JJ or QQ. If he/she had AK they would have slowed down given your read. If they had AA it seems like they probably would have capped the flop and given the A on the river, that hand is even less likely.

[bakku]

Bet, the A doesn't change anything. If you were ahead on the turn you're still ahead on the river.

[Munga30]

I just can't see you getting a call from worse hands if you bet here, so I check and call.

Arguments for betting do include getting another KK to fold, but it won't happen often enough. You would be risking two bets (assuming you always call and lose when raised) to win half of the 13.66 big bet pot, so you would need him to fold more than about 22% of the time.

[Joe826]

Are you serious? Button gives all that action and he/she won't call the river for one more with TT-QQ? I think this is a clear value bet..

[MoreWineII]

What about QQ, JJ, &amp; 10-10?

[Munga30]

Part of the reason they give all that action is that they put you on AK. What do they put you on now if they have JJ? Exactly TT?

[gamblore99]

Of the possible hands hes been calling down till now, it looks like its 10 10, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK, and maybe AQ given the preflop action.

It really looks like hes playing a low pocket pair or AK. Most likely
1010, JJ, or AK because hes slowed down.

AK, probability wise is more likely than 1010. and if this guy is a good player he wont call with these. But he will call and probably raise with AK. just check and call.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
Part of the reason they give all that action is that they put you on AK. What do they put you on now if they have JJ? Exactly TT?


[/ QUOTE ]

All joking aside, yes.

[bakku]

Part of the reason they give all that action is that they put you on AK.

Putting hero on AK here is ridiculous, I hope you don't play AK like that.

[bakku]

Button seems pretty solid for the most part. Hasn't done anything out of line, pretty much played ABC. Slows down when facing aggression, even with TPGK.

Putting button on AK here is ridiculous.

[Munga30]

Lord, I hope I don't play AK like this and I'm not saying I would make that read. I'm saying someone holding JJ and giving that kind of action would, making it less likely to get a call from that person when the A rivers. Maybe they just change their tune, as cold cash said, and change their read to a hand that beats you. But if they're that dumb, they're dumb enough to bet JJ when checked to, figuring you'll lay down something you shouldn't.

I guess that's the point for me. I don't think they're bad enough to call with JJ and good enough to check behind with it.

[gamblore99]

[ QUOTE ]
Button seems pretty solid for the most part. Hasn't done anything out of line, pretty much played ABC. Slows down when facing aggression, even with TPGK.

Putting button on AK here is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

your right. i neglected the turn action. so i would say he has 1010, JJ, or maybe QQ. either way, check and call is the way to go.

[SpaceAce]

Nice aggression, I like the way you played this hand. I think you have a bet on the river. You are ahead of three out of five likely button hands and you are unlikely to face a river raise. You beat QQ, JJ and TT and you are beaten by AA and AK. Given that your opponent did not cap the turn, you are probably only going to get raised on the river if your opponent has exactly AA and rivered a set.

SpaceAce

[Joe826]

[ QUOTE ]

your right. i neglected the turn action. so i would say he has 1010, JJ, or maybe QQ. either way, check and call is the way to go.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't understand this. I hate this clique, but this is party, you guys honestly think a typical player will fold an OVERPAIR in this situation? I have a very hard time believing that. Bet the river, and it's not close (i've always wanted to say that heheh).

[bakku]

I have a very hard time believing that. Bet the river, and it's not close (i've always wanted to say that heheh).

I agree, that's what I said in my other post. This is an easy river bet.

[Shalara]

Given that he does slow down to aggression, even with solid hands, his raise-call was rather alarming. I thought his most likely cards were an overpair. Matter of fact, I put him on KK most likely, QQ-TT also possible, figuring he would still likely cap AA on the flop.

I did bet that river.

My thoughts: Many hands would call me that I could beat, and no hands that could beat me would raise, except AA. (unlikely but possible). River didn't seem to change anything for me, except if he also had KK, I could possibly win instead of chop.

Result: I was stunned when he called me, and laid down 88 for the flopped set.

Aftermath: I said something like, nh, and how surprised I was, and we got to chatting a bit. He said he figured I had AA or KK (???), and as long as the river wasn't an A or K, he was going to raise. Why he re-raised pre-flop, I will never know. Perhaps he was getting bored, as he left a couple hands later.

Knowing that he would have played QQ or JJ the same way, I felt a bit better about my decisions, but I still wondered a bit. Reading the responses was really helpful, as it helped to reaffirm my thought process--I've had some pretty big downswings before, but I'm in like my 2nd biggest one since I started playing seriously. I took a little time to reground, and I do appreciate the responses. Nice to know that I wasn't completely out of line there.