Simple expected value confusion...

[mike1212]

I'm trying to calculate the expected value of a deposit bonus offer.

I am going to deposit $250.
They will match my deposit.
I can bet with my $500 bankroll.
When I withdraw, $250 is deducted from my cashout.

So if I play 1 hand of baccarat and bet on banker until there is not a tie:

50.68% -> balance = $975 -> cashout = $725
49.32% -> balance = 0 -> cashout = $0



What is my expected value of the $250 deposit? I'm not sure exactly how to calculate this.

0.506852033______725______367.4677236
0.493150343_____-250_____-123.2875856
__________________________244.1801379

that doesn't seem right. is this it?

0.506852033______725______367.4677236
0.493150343________0________0
__________________________367.4677236

Thanks for the help.

[parachute]

You are putting in $250, and getting back $725 or $0.

So your EV is ($725 * .5068) + ($0 * 0.4932) - $250 = $117.43.

[mike1212]

thanks.