Jim Brier Hand #4 in Cardplayer magazine

Does everyone agree with this advice (see below).


Hand No. 4 ($20-$40 game): You are in the small blind with the 4 4. An early-position player and two middle-position players call. You also call. There is $100 in the pot and five players. The flop is K 10 4, giving you bottom set. You bet, the big blind folds, and the early-position player calls. The first middle-position player raises and the next player folds. You reraise, and only the raiser calls. There is $240 in the pot and two players. The turn is the 5. You bet and your opponent calls. There is $320 in the pot. The river is the J. What should you do?


Answer: Check. This card not only makes a flush possible, but a straight as well, especially if your opponent had A-Q with a club.


I strongly disagree since I just cant see any opponent that i would check my hand on the river here. Ill bet every time becoz KQ KJ KT Kx and a lot of worst hands will pay me everytime. The flush or str8 possibility is quite under 45% IMO and its a clear bet


Thank you for advice

Well, you say that the river makes a possible flush but was that front door or backdoor? If backdoor, I would bet. Front door, you may need to check but not necessarily.

I agree with Charlie. Depending on the player, in a typical 20/40 game, the most likely hand his opponent holds is KQ, followed by KT and KJ. The bet seems clearly profitable to me.


Either of the big 2 scare hands (TT and AQ) are often preflop raising hands, which lowers their likelihood that much more.

Charlie, you need to keep in mind that if your opponent has a flush or even a straight, he will probably raise your river bet forcing you to call. So you are risking two bets to win one bet. Furthermore, it is unlikely that your opponent flopped two pair, especially the top two pair, since he would have probably four-bet you on the flop or at least raised your turn bet.


I would agree that betting river might be correct if you had position over your opponent and he checked the river to you. But in this situation, I think checking is right.


Thank you for your interest. In the future it would be helpful if you would type in the suits in lower case like 4c-4d and a flop of: Kc-Tc-4h with turn card of 5d and a river card of Jc.

This line intrigued me:


"I would agree that betting river might be correct if you had position over your opponent and he checked the river to you. But in this situation, I think checking is right."


I disagree. If the player with a set of fours bets the river in first position, he is actually risking just one bet to win one. If he gets raised (and remember, he is still allowed to fold) and pays off a flush or a straight, it's no doubt this flush or straight would bet in last position (and the set CANNOT check/fold the river), so it's costing the set of fours ONE additional big bet if it runs into a full hand.


However, in last position, he is risking two big bets, providing the opponent is one who check-raises from time to time. Although most players would bet out with a rivered flush or straight in this situation, I cannot see how being in last position here makes betting that much more sensible.


lars

First, thank you for answering!


My thinkin is about the same as Lars.


If your opponent has a str8 or a flush, he will bet it and youll lose 1 bet anyway...


So when u bet the river, u might win ONE extra bet (your opponent call with Kx or worse) or lose ONE extra bet (if he raise you)


So if you think youre ahead (>50%, even 51% would be EV+), U must bet. Youll win 1 extra bet or youll lose that EXTRA bet!!


Just my opinion


Charlie

Because when you are in last position, you have more information to work with. It would be highly unusual for your opponent to check a made hand at this point planning to check-raise you on the river. You are both looking at the same board and if the guy first to act has a flush or a straight he is going to bet it because he will be worried that you will simply check it down.


Now given that your opponent has checked, the likelihood of your set being best has gone up significantly. I would definitely bet the river in that case.


Like many poker decisions, position is critical.

See my answer to Lars Vegas's post. Position is critical. Furthermore, this is a situation where a better hand is quite possible and will usually raise while a worse hand is not nearly as probable and will occasionally fold.

If he bets, is called, and his hand holds up he makes one bet on the river. If he bets, is raised, calls the raise and loses, he loses two bets on the river (his first bet plus what you refer to as the "additional bet"). His potential profit is one bet and his potential loss is two bets, i.e. risking two bets to make one.