probability of badbeat jackpot

[Lester Burnham]

for standard casino jackpot, i.e. Aces full of tens or better beat, both cardsinhand must play, etc.

someone told me it was 65,000-1

is that close?

TIA

[pzhon]

The probability the jackpot is hit depends on the playing styles, not just from preflop play but also post-flop. Rather than model these, you can estimate the probability of a jackpot hand by comparing the jackpot drop with the size of the last few jackpots.

[Lester Burnham]

playing styles seem to go out the winder once the jackpot reaches 'critical mass', maybe 25K+, ie. folks will call with any pair/suited connectors reaching for the brass ring...

....i'd thought of using the jackpot size also but it's difficult to know the sample...plus, part of each drop goes towards secondary jackpot.


the range is really wide but i don't think i've seen a "regular*" jackpot get above $60k, so maybe the 65K - 1 is wrong...

*i did see one in Tunica go over $120k but it needed quads to be beaten...