Good Hand vs. Odds

[Dooner]

Let me set this up. The other night, I was playing in a $10+$1 SnG. It was early in the tourny and the blinds were 15/30. In a matter of seven hands, pocket Aces were dealt four times. They won the first three times. I, however, was the one dealt them the fourth time. Thinking purely on odds, I folded pre-flop when a player under the gun raised t500. If I called and lost, I would be crippled since I only had 634 total chips.

My thinking was, and maybe I am wrong, that the odds of pocket aces winning again were not in my favor. Now before people start yelling or getting upset, I'm not referring to a fix of any kind, I'm referring strictly to the odds. If you deal out 100 hands and someone has pocket Aces every time, they will only win about %50 of the time (correct?).

Was this the wrong thinking? Should I have seen the flop and then folded if it was not a good flop? I ended up being correct, the person who raised had pocket 9's and the flop came 9, 2, 2(K and 10 on the turn and river). Just in case a situation like this ever occurs again, I would like to know what some of you would have done.

Thanks
/images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Hood]

Oh boy, where to start.

Firstly, let's ignore the fact that poker aces had been dealt a lot before it got to you. This is inconsequential top the chances of you getting aces, anyone else having aces, the odds of anything. The events are independant. I'm not sure if you were claming this, but you mentioned it. It is irrelevant.

Ok so you get the best hand pre-flop - two aces. A guy raises to T500, 'purely on odds'.

I'm not sure where the stat of 'aces on win 50% of the time'. I *think* this is the odds of aces winning if 9 other random hands go with you the show down.

And...

... Ok I'm going to stop there because I feel I'm falling in to a trap of a joke post. If it is... ho ho ho. If not - read some poker books /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If this post isn't a joke, you should seriously consider never playing poker again.

[patrick dicaprio]

i will presume this is a joke. but there was another similar post a while back so i guess that poker play really has gotten worse if these arent jokes.

Pat