Bluff or forfeit the pot?

I am in the bb with 6h5h. 2 early limpers. Button and sb also call. 5 way action.


Flop: Kh4s2d


I bet. First guy folds. Second guy raises. Everyone else folds. I call.


Turn: 7c


Something unexpected now happens. It goes check/check.


River: T


I realize that much depends on your read of your opponent and his read on you but let's assume that you are playing online and have no read on your opponent and he has no read on you...do you bluff here or just check and forfeit the pot?


Would your answer be different if the river was a King? a 4? an Ace?

I think this is the most profitable bluff in hold'em. I also think that on your particular hand it is close on whether or not to bluff. His play feels like a suited king with no kicker (live one) or a pocket pair like 99 (scared one). On the other hand the pot is a decent size so you don't have be successfull very often for the bluff to work.

This is an interesting situation because it would be an obvious bluff if not for every other indicator pointing to your opponent having a made hand.


He makes an isolation raise on the flop. Also there's hardly any likely draws to raise for a free card. He limped in early position, so if he hit the flop, he has a king or a pocket pair. Meanwhile, you are in the BB and you could have a 4 or a 2. This looks like a wonderful opportunity for your opponent to induce a river bluff. So, I am inclined to check after thinking about it. At the table, I would probably end up betting.


I want to point out one possible draw: Axs, with a wheel draw. He raises this as a semibluff, and also to make his ace outs good. However, I'm guessing that typical players (and myself) aren't going to make this play; they will call and try for multiway action. I would also expect Axs to continue to bluff when a blank falls, and get the free showdown rather than show weakness and then check-fold the river. But, if I think my opponent were capable of making this flop raise, I would bet.

I would bet here virtually every time and I also think that's profitable ;-)


If he has a pair, even a mediocre, I think he's much more likely to bet the turn and check the river, right? Could he make a move on the pot with one overcard on the flop and a reasonable other card? Maybe something like A3 A5 (if he can play that in EP)? Maybe AJ, AT (suited) etc?


Man, I would bet here everytime (and not even virtually, and especially online). You should do way better than win about 25% of the times IMO. Since playing shorthanded I learned that most players fold the river too much, which can be extremely profitable for you if you take advantage of that. IMO this is one of those spots.


Regards

Personally, I fire away on the river. Let him think you were going to check-raise the turn. If I count right, there are five big bets in the pot. It may be marginal, but I'd bet it.


His turn check was a weak move. If he decides to reraise on the river, I'd likely bail.


I believe you will bluff him off the pot at least one time in five - likely more. I see people fold to me on the river all the time short handed, and I love it. Playing 10/20 short handed last night, I won at least four $200 pots because I fired at the river and the other guy didn't want to pay $20 to keep me honest.


Troy

This was a ring game not shorthanded...don't know if that would affect your response.


I am starting to think that Dan's reponse is probably the best i.e. check and give up the pot. On the surface, it looks like your bluff has a 1 in 5 chance of succeeding but it just about never seems to work in this situation. The key is that the flop offers no possible draws that my opponent could have. He therefore must have a weak King or more likely, an underpair like 99 with which he is scared to bet the turn but will call on the river. Alteranatively, he has a monster like a set or something (perhaps he spiked a 7 on the turn) and is slowplaying. If he was bluffing on the flop, he would in all likelihood bluff again on the turn.


If the flop had a reasonable draw, then a river bluff might work (although that slices both ways as he may put you on that draw and make a thin call).


In any event, on the actual hand, I bet. He raised. I folded. He then showed KT for top two pairs. He said "I got lucky". Button then said "nah, you didn't need the river". The wag to my left chimed in with "you didn't even need the flop"...lol

Do not bluff. If the flop had a possible flush draw then maybe. This person has a weak king and will call. There was almost nothing on the flop that he would have raised with in order to get a free card. An ace on the river would be the only chance you would have to bluff and not knowing this person if would not work often enough.

There are nine (small) bets in the pot. Your opponent has checked the turn second to act. What could he have had that makes sense to play that way? Knowing nothing about him, and nothing about the stakes you were playing, I would think he has A) a draw, perhaps 53s, or B) he was semi-bluffing with something like Axs and has either paired his kicker, or has a gutshot to the wheel, perhaps with a backdoor flush draw. Obviously the turn did not help him either way. The open-ender is not as likely as he probably would have bet again. So what is your chance of taking the pot vs. the pot odds youget on a bluff attempt?


The bluff attempt gives you 4.5:1 for your bet, so you need a bit less than a 20% chance of success to make the attempt profitable.


Knowing nothing about your opponent, I would bluff at it.


Dave in Cali