Ugly SB hand with draws -- Critique?

[prayformojo]

This one still has me scratching my noggin. I thought I had the odds for these calls, but please go at me if I'm wrong.

I had just arrived at the table but my first impression was that it was a PP .50/1 dream table. I watched 5 hands, no pre-flop raises, and at least five, and as many as nine, seeing each flop. Post-flop was hard to judge in so few hands, and seeing only a couple of starting hands.


Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks,

Flop: (9 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(9 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(8 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

[Brian]

There isn't any point at which you could fold this hand, if that's what you're asking.

-Brian

[prayformojo]

That is what I'm asking. Is the pre-flop complete a marginal one, or with that much money in the pot is that a given?

[prayformojo]

In the alternative, should I be betting or raising the flop for value with all these callers?

[Brian]

The pre-Flop complete is fine at a 1/2 SB structure. I'd go down to about 65o, and any two suited cards of course.

The Flop calls are really just calculating odds, which you need to be proficient at. You're getting 15:2 immediate odds on your cold-call, which is about 7.5:1. You have 6 completely squeaky clean outs on the Turn: the 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, the 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, the 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, the 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, the 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, and the 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. You're about a 7:1 dog to hit one of those cards on the Turn, and you're getting 7.5:1 to call. With implied odds, it's definitely a call. Plus, sometimes the Flush draw won't be out there, giving you two additional outs, the 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif and the 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif.

The Turn call is much easier than the Flop call. Now you're getting 15:1, and you're still about a 7:1 dog to hit a clean straight on the River. And, now that theres only 1 card to come, theres no fear of hitting your hand, and then getting redrawn on the last card, since this is the last card.

If you had any problem with this math, I suggest heading over to the Probability forum. Good luck and welcome to the forums,

-Brian

[nothumb]

mojo,

I think this is an easy complete in the SB. I would lead the flop.

NT

[nothumb]

Brian,

Do you consider the 9's truly clean when he could be up against a higher straight?

Unlikely but they aren't to the nuts.

NT

[Brian]

Hi nothumb,

Yes, I do. Looking over your shoulder for hands like J7 and QJ all the time will leave you playing tight, scared poker.

-Brian

[prayformojo]

The possibility that the 9s weren't clean was one of my concerns. This was one of the reasons I didn't bet out or raise n the flop. Too weak, or a reasonable move?

[prayformojo]

For anyone who's interested, the denouement:


River: (24.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP1 folds, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 41.50 BB


Thanks for the odds, Brian; they matched up pretty well with my figures on the fly (although by the turn it was more a matter of saying "of course I have the odds, look at all that damn money!" than calculating numbers). I just don't want to become results oriented and learn the wrong lessons from a monster pot.

[Sent]

Wow huge pot, wonder what everyone else had

-Sent