Party 10+1 Early Round question

[imcastleman]

A friend of mine is at level one and limps in with 99 (no clubs), and 5 players see a flop of 7 3 3 (2 clubs). The small blind bets out 125, and two players fold. How should he proceed with one player yet to act? (Note: all players involved in the hand started with 800 chips.)

[Ogre]

I think this is an easy fold. Calling 125 into a 75 chip pot you are not getting much odds. I wouldn't risk that much of your stack early on, expecialy on a paired board with a flush draw. Also you only have 15 chips commited to the pot its not like you have half you're stack in it already.

[HighStack]

Fold, typical board to get you in chip trouble early. Yup.

[patrick dicaprio]

i would raise here. even with five players it is unlikely that your friend doesnt have the best hand. he will certainly find out if someone flopped a 3 since he will be reraised. if a club doesnt come on the turn he should bet again or even move in. if someone limped with a pair higher than 99 oh well.

Pat

[Jason Strasser]

imcastleman,

Your friend is making a gigantic mistake by folding. The EP better almost certainly does not have a three. The typical way a 10+1 player would play that would be to check raise. A flush draw, and a seven are much more likely situations.

I'd play the overpair as if it were gold, and charge the EP better his stack if he decided to draw. I think running away from flush draws here is giving up way too much. If he has one overcard to your 9, and a flush draw, you are a 60/40 favorite.

The thing about a spot like this, is that because your edge here will almost always be significant (you will be better than a coinflip), you should press it. What could your opponent have?

I don't run away from an edge this big. I raise all-in, and if he wants to chase, I let him chase. If he wants to call me with a 7, I would be happy. If he had a 3, I'd tell him to move up levels, because betting out when you flop three of a kind is simply too simple yet too advanced for your average 10+1.

Peace,
-Jason

[Tosh]

I agree with Jason, theres too much weak tightness running through 2+2 IMO. Frankly I think worst case scenario you're against an ace high flush draw. Often you'll be against a smaller pair or just a crappy 7. Being shown a 3 has to be pretty rare here. Hell I've been shown a gutshot draw after making a similar play with JJ at the 50 level.

[Hood]

I agree that it's a push, and I also agree with tosh - I think people take the 'play really tight in early stages' too far and become weak-tight, even scared, players.

One question for you Jason - if the flop was 883, would it still be a clear push? What about 883 rainbow?

If it was checked to you, you pot bet, then you were raised all in, would it then generally be a fold? (presuming no reads)

[Jason Strasser]

Hrmm. I feel a lot better being bet into with 99 on a 338 with a flush draw, then 883 rainbow. There are definitely arguments for a fold in that situation, if raising will commit you to the pot. That spot is probably marginal at best, because the chance your opponent is semi-bluffing is gone. Sure, you will probably be ahead, but I am less certain.

Keep in mind I also have no idea how the 10+1 play these days. Sometimes I hear they've tightened up, sometimes I hear the opposite.

If it was checked and I bet, which I would, then I'd muck in a second to a check raise.

I think you're on the same wavelength as me in terms of how we approach this spot. Whether that's a good thing is for someone else to decide. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[imcastleman]

Let’s assume the only 2 courses of action are to fold or to re-raise all in.

If you fold, you will have 770 chips left. Based on my freinds last months results:
P(1st)=.1359
P(2nd)=.1117
P(3rd)=.1456

If you move all in and you know he will call and you know he has a club draw with one overcard above 9, then

A(You lose the hand)
0 chips left implies: P(1st)=0,P(2nd)=0, P(3rd)=0

B(You win the hand)
1645 chips left implies: P(1)=0.23,P(2)=0.21, P(3)=0.24

I’ve increased the probabilities of each placement by about 10% since you have doubled up. We all know that even with twice as many chips as you started with anything can happen between now and 3rd place.

P(A) = .4081
P(B) =.5919

P(1st) = P(A)*P(1|A) + P(B)*P(1|B) = .4*0 + .5919*.23 = 0+.102 = 0.136137
P(2nd) = P(A)*P(2|A) + P(B)*P(2|B) = 0+.5919*.21 = 0.124299
P(3rd) = P(A)*P(3|A) + P(B)*P(3|B) = 0+.5919*.24 = 0.142056

Assuming a buy in of 1, then
3rd place pays: 2
2nd place pays: 3
1st place pays: 5

E(Folding) = P(3)*2 + P(2)*3 + P(1)*5 = .1456*2 + .1117*3 + .1359*5 = .2912 + .3351 + .6795 = 1.3058
E(Calling) = P(3)*2 + P(2)*3 + P(1)*5 = .142056*2 + .124299*3 + .136137*5 = .284112 + .372897 + .680685 = 1.337694

Since the expected value of moving all in knowing he will call with one card above a 9 and a club draw is higher than the expected value of folding, then moving all in is the right play. Of course, there are made up numbers here which I have no evidence to back up and that is that since you have doubled up, you will now get in the money 68% of the time instead of only 38%.