Overpair on the flop... and I fold....

[TRWIII]

I'm thinking hands like this are what causes 75BB downswings. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO caps</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero folds.

This is a good place to lay it down right? My queens didnt look so good right about now.... anyone raise it?

TRWIII

[MoreWineII]

There's absolutely no way I'm throwing away QQ there. UTG's raise could mean 10-10, JJ, A-Q/K (spades or not spades)...or nothing at all.

I'm just not ready to give up on this hand yet.

Oh, to answer your question, I would probably 3-bet.

[TRWIII]

I'm not sure if it makes it right or not and I know its results oriented thinking, but my gut was right. Cut off had 88 and the other guy had AA and it was capped the whole way.

*shrugs*

Anyone else play on, or are there any votes for folding. I'm not sure here.

TRWIII

[Alobar]

Horrible fold!

there are lots of hands UTG is raising here that you are way ahead of, and you are most assuredly ahead of the BB, and your 3 bet (which is how I'm playing it) could drive the CO off overcards or even maybe KK (yeah, i'd say it was so remote its not worth mentioning, but then you folded QQ to a raise, so anything is possible /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

Sure there is every possibility that you are behind a higher pair, or that you get outdrawn anyway, but I think you'd be folding the winner here to much.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if it makes it right or not and I know its results oriented thinking, but my gut was right. Cut off had 88 and the other guy had AA and it was capped the whole way.


[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that the CO capped with 88 PF I think goes to show why this was a bad fold. I'm not saying I'm not folding this hand at some point. But definately not in this situation on the flop.

I know you know this already, but I still think its worth mentioning. If playing by your "gut feeling" was +EV people would be beating the craps and roulette tables and Vegas would be a truck stop in the middle of the desert

[TRWIII]

Alright, new situation. Say I three bet and its capped behind me. The turn came up A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Its bet and raised in front of me. Now do I fold? Here's the rest of the hand just for completeness:


Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO caps</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero folds, <font color="CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB caps</font>, UTG folds, CO calls.

Turn: (13.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, BB calls.

River: (17.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, CO calls.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
BB shows 8s 8h (full house, eights full of threes).
CO shows Ah As (full house, aces full of threes).
Outcome: CO wins 21.25 BB. </font>

Where do you get away from it? If Im not sure Im behind on the flop, Im darn near positive on the turn. Any help is appreciated

TRWIII

[TripleH68]

Four players in for four bets puts up a red flag here. CO capped and BB called. I am afraid I would have folded also. Weak?

[TRWIII]

Good point. Well taken.

TRWIII

[KidPokerX]

Results aside, as a routine move this is terrible on partypoker without some big big reads. The question here is whether you want to 3-bet, or just call and see if the BB or CO 3-bet's. I cold call the 2 and see what happens. The proceding action will dictate how clear a fold it is on the turn.

[MoreWineII]

Once an ace comes on the turn and there is action in front of you, then I think it's a safe fold.

The hand was just sucky for you and it turns out you saved some money by folding the flop, but it's not very often that you are going to have overpair QQ on a crummy flop and go against AA *and* a set.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
Alright, new situation. Say I three bet and its capped behind me. The turn came up A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Its bet and raised in front of me. Now do I fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Now I'd say its an easy fold.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that the CO capped with 88 PF I think goes to show why this was a bad fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it isn't. How about the UTG not slowing down a bit? This is only 1 hand that we're seeing by the CO so it's tough to jump to a LAG tag based on one hand.

[ QUOTE ]
I know you know this already, but I still think its worth mentioning. If playing by your "gut feeling" was +EV people would be beating the craps and roulette tables and Vegas would be a truck stop in the middle of the desert

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a pit game. There is alot of 'feel' you can have on a cardtable. Much comes from experience with the opponents you're against. I had a post in mid stakes where i avoided a turn c/r with rockets because i 'felt' the guy had flopped a set. Which he did.

Online it's tougher to get this feel. I think it can be accomplished to some degree by playing no more than 2 tables. 1 table is very do-able as your paying attention more instead of divided attention. Granted, it takes alot of time to develop and act on this feel. To trust your read enough to act on it. But sometimes you listen to that voice.

Poker is more than just playing ABC and the odds. It's not blackjack.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
you are most assuredly ahead of the BB,

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? The only chance he's had to really act, other than calling 3 cold preflop w/o the possibility of raising he's bet out into a raiser, 3bettor and capper. You can't say he's weak based on that.

[ QUOTE ]
there are lots of hands UTG is raising here that you are way ahead of,

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on what? No reads were given.

The only reason i could see for playing on is if this table had a prior history of overaggressive play. No reads were given, not even the table texture, which is detrimental to any analysis. This hand is also going to showdown, most likely, so calling for the info on their play isn't a reason to go on.

There's also a big difference between folding QQ and KK here. I do agree though that if im playing, im raising the flop.

b

[MoreWineII]

I dont think anybody disputes that some plays are read-dependent.

Having said that, I still think it's a bad fold on the flop.

[tolbiny]

but it's not very often that you are going to have overpair QQ on a crummy flop and go against AA *and* a set.

it doesnt matter if hes only up against one, and not both-

[bernie]

Given the action on the flop, if you raised (which i likely would've done on an unknown table), it'd have been capped behind you. The A shows, now it would be a bet to you from someone who hasn't slowed down a bit. A CO who hasn't slowed down so it's going to be jacked behind you. This is where i'd get off the ride.

b

[MoreWineII]

I should have added an "and/or" in there. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[TRWIII]

Well at least I got someone to agree with me /images/graemlins/tongue.gif. I didnt think it was that catastophic, although I admit it wasnt the best move. But I do feel a little bit better now. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

TRWIII

[bernie]

If he has a good read of the player, it's a great fold on the flop.

Not saying i'd have folded, i'd likely have 3 bet, but then i wasn't there playing.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Results aside, as a routine move this is terrible on partypoker without some big big reads. The question here is whether you want to 3-bet, or just call and see if the BB or CO 3-bet's. I cold call the 2 and see what happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you 3 bet, you will still have a raise behind you to get info with. No way im just calling this here. Too many benefits with raising not to raise. Far outweighs calling in this spot.

b

[HajiShirazu]

I don't think your play is right, because people are crazy on Party, and you'll see some guy with A9 thinking his cap preflop was right, and another guy with pocket sevens who figured everybody else had AK.
With that said I lose too much money in these situations (pair vs. over pair and rag flop, pair vs. set.) But maybe that's just part of playing aggressively and getting full value the times you do have the best hand.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact that the CO capped with 88 PF I think goes to show why this was a bad fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it isn't. How about the UTG not slowing down a bit? This is only 1 hand that we're seeing by the CO so it's tough to jump to a LAG tag based on one hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not using the 88 PF cap to label him a LAG, I was using it to show that just because someone caps PF at party 2/4 doesnt mean AA KK. Which is I'm sure part of the reason he folded on the flop, because he knew the PF capper still had to act behind him.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know you know this already, but I still think its worth mentioning. If playing by your "gut feeling" was +EV people would be beating the craps and roulette tables and Vegas would be a truck stop in the middle of the desert

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a pit game. There is alot of 'feel' you can have on a cardtable. Much comes from experience with the opponents you're against. I had a post in mid stakes where i avoided a turn c/r with rockets because i 'felt' the guy had flopped a set. Which he did.

Online it's tougher to get this feel. I think it can be accomplished to some degree by playing no more than 2 tables. 1 table is very do-able as your paying attention more instead of divided attention. Granted, it takes alot of time to develop and act on this feel. To trust your read enough to act on it. But sometimes you listen to that voice.

Poker is more than just playing ABC and the odds. It's not blackjack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't call what you're describing a "gut feeling" then, I'd call it a read. I think one needs to be careful to distinguish between the two, thats all.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you are most assuredly ahead of the BB,

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? The only chance he's had to really act, other than calling 3 cold preflop w/o the possibility of raising he's bet out into a raiser, 3bettor and capper. You can't say he's weak based on that.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're telling me you are worried about the BB? He's the last of my concerns in this hand. Maybe I should stop assuming everyone at party 2/4 is an idiot, but in my experience 80% of the time here he's playing a draw or has A9 or the like.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
there are lots of hands UTG is raising here that you are way ahead of,

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on what? No reads were given.


[/ QUOTE ]

You cant think of any hands UTG raises here that you are ahead of? TT, JJ, a big suited A, Ako, even QQ. I didnt say he was ahead of UTG, I just said you can't automatically assume you are behind UTG

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
You're telling me you are worried about the BB? He's the last of my concerns in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm aware of the BB. No way do i think i'm 'assuredly' ahead. What are you basing that on? He didn't have a chance preflop to do anything but call or fold. But now he's betting into a sure raise from at least 2 possible spots. That should send up at least a little flag.

[ QUOTE ]
You cant think of any hands UTG raises here that you are ahead of? TT, JJ, a big suited A, Ako, even QQ. I didnt say he was ahead of UTG, I just said you can't automatically assume you are behind UTG

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this part. Though one could be wary that this player hasn't slowed down a bit. No reads were given for this player. However, note he's raising into a 3 bettor and capper. Since preflop 3 bettors and cappers don't usually fold the flop to a raise, this could mean a somewhat stronger hand. Doesn't mean it is, though.

b