Flopped Broadway Meeting Resistance

[pc in NM]

I played this hand recently, and would appreciate any comments....

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) Second circuit, so few reads on other players.

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks,

I called w/O the suited hand, wanting to see the flop before anything else....

Flop: (6 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Broadway!! 2 bets to me. There was no flush draw, so, should I have 3-bet? I was thinking of keeping them in until the turn...

Turn: (8 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.

I pushed it here, its rainbow, and wanting the drawers to "pay" for the privledge. Thinkin' I have the best hand right now...

River: (15 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>

Drat, a paired board!!!

What now?

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Drat, another spade and a paired board!!!
What now?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you worried about the /images/graemlins/spade.gif? It doesn't completed any flushes. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

So, call or raise the river. It's close, because, this is all based on the probability that MP2 has a full house. No raise preflop, so I can't see him having AK/AQ/KK/QQ/JJ. I would think even KQ tends to raise preflop.

KJ/QJ just seem so gosh-darn likely. You'll get 3-bet when you raise a boat, so this all hinges on whether he has a boat more or less than 1/3 of the time. I'm try to construct a hand he plays like he did that isn't KJ/QJ and I'm struggling. Maybe T9?

Anyway, yeah, so I'm voting to just call here, though it's a very close and borderline unimportant decision in the long run.

[BottlesOf]

Are you sure he needs to be good 1/3 of the time to make the raise correct?

Assuming, he's always 3-bet when he's behind and that he'll call a 3-bet, and assumiing he'll always be just called when he's ahead?


He'll either win 2 bets or lose 3, right?? Where am I goofing up?

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you sure he needs to be good 1/3 of the time to make the raise correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure if I was clear in my original post or not.

Our hero needs to be ahead 2/3rds of the time or more to make the raise +EV.

Assumptions: his opponent will always call the raise with less-than-a-boat and 3-bet with a boat; and that our hero will always call said 3-bet.

Calling MP2's bet is the baseline I'm comparing raising against.

Hero gains 1 extra bet by raising when he's ahead.
Hero loses 2 extra bets by raising when he's behind.

So, our hero breaks exactly even when MP2 has a boat 1/3 of the time (he gains 1 bet 2/3rd of the time, +.66, but loses 2 bets 1/3rd of the time, -.66.)

Make sense?

[BottlesOf]

Totally, I'm an idiot, and I was switching the fractions. Thanks for that.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Totally, I'm an idiot, and I was switching the fractions. Thanks for that.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're an idiot, but not for switching the fractions. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

The key is to compare everything versus calling.

[arkady]

on the turn, whats the to think about - u have the nut str8 the only possibility is thats a split pot.

Mind you, that possibility is somewhat diminished by mp2 not capping - but by river time you are only really ahead of KQ, 9T or some other grossly overplayed one pair (unlikely), so I call here...dont think its a weak tight play.

[BottlesOf]

Please note. I never said I was an idiot because I switched the fractions.

FWIW, I muck preflop, 3-bet the flop and call the river.

[bdk3clash]

I just noticed this, and in combination with your worrying about the impossible /images/graemlins/spade.gif flush, I'm just going to point it out.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (8 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.

I pushed it here, its rainbow, and wanting the drawers to "pay" for the privledge. Thinkin' I have the best hand right now...

[/ QUOTE ]

You know you have the nuts on the turn, right? "Thinkin'" could mean a lot of different things here, just wanted a sanity verification.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I muck preflop, 3-bet the flop and call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that order? How did the quest turn out?

[arkady]

i usually 3 bet the river, raise the flop and muck pre-flop.

[BottlesOf]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif You mean you didn't read the Day 5 installment /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

I fell quite short and am doing it again this week.

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
but by river time you are only really ahead of KQ, 9T or some other grossly overplayed one pair (unlikely), so I call here...dont think its a weak tight play.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
i usually 3 bet the river, raise the flop and muck pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

Haupt_234