Two river decisions

[Aces McGee]

These hands were played in my first ever $5/$10 session, at the Taj on Saturday.

Hand 1: I'm in LP with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

UTG (apparently a regular in this game, somewhat tight and aggressive) limps, folded to me and I raise. Unknown in the BB calls, UTG now re-raises, and I call.

Flop is QJ5, two diamonds. BB checks, UTG bets, I raise, BB folds, UTG makes it three, and I call. In retrospect, I don't like my flop raise at all here.

Turn is a non-diamond king. UTG bets, I raise, and he calls.

River is another 5. He checks. I...

Hand 2

Unknown UTG raises. Folded to me, and I make it three bets on the button with AKo (suits unimportant). Blinds fold, and UTG calls.

Flop is 843r. He bets, and I call.

Turn is a king. He bets, I raise, he calls.

River is a queen. He checks, I...

Thanks in advance. Comments on all streets appreciated (I don't like my flop raise in hand 1 and probably should have raised the flop in hand 2), but I'm most interested in the river decisions.

-McGee

[bdk3clash]

(Hand 1)

Surely your opponent would have 3-bet the turn with QQ or KK if he's even moderately aggressive. Hands I see limp-raises with at B&M games include AA, KK, QQ, AKo/AKs, AQo/AQs, and worse. Given that your "aggressive" opponent didn't 3-bet the turn, I don't think he has KK/QQ.

His play seems consistent with AA or AQ. I don't think an aggressive player with KK or QQ wouldn't 3-bet the turn.

So yeah, I'd bet the river and call a raise. If he has KK/QQ/JJ, good for him.

[MoreWineII]

I think they are both bets, especially hand two. The Queen shouldn't be a scare card, I wouldn't think.

Hand one is a little scarier, but I still think it's a bet.

[lil']

Hand 1 - What's so bad about the flop raise? You have at least 12 outs here, and if he is limp re-raising with less than A-A, you have even more outs. The three bet on the flop pretty much lets you know where you stand. You'll need to make a straight or flush to continue on.

Bet the river and see his aces.

Hand 2 - Raising the flop here is certainly an option worth considering. You may have the best hand here. The turn is automatic, as is betting the river. The only reason I can think of for you asking if you should bet here is because he had either Q-Q or K-Q and check-raised you and you feel sick about it.

[Aces McGee]

Hi Lil

Hand 1: I liked the flop raise until I posted the hand. Then, while I was posting, I thought some more. My thinking was that since he limp-reraised preflop, he has a big hand. I'm very likely going to have to showdown the winner in this one, and if I do win, it'll likely be with a straight or flush. If that's the case, don't I want to keep the other player in?

But now I don't know.

As for the river bet in Hand 2: With what hands that I beat does he raise preflop, call my 3bet preflop, bet the flop, and bet and call a raise on the turn?

Thanks for the response.

-McGee

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]
K-Q and check-raised you and you feel sick about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am going to get drawn and quartered for saying this, but I've folded TPTK to a river checkraise from a TAG in live games before. it's almost never a bluff.

standard line is obviously bet and pay off a raise in both of these.

--turnipmonster

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
As for the river bet in Hand 2: With what hands that I beat does he raise preflop, call my 3bet preflop, bet the flop, and bet and call a raise on the turn?
-McGee

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's see. Note that these are hands he could have, not hands he could have and played correctly. Off the top of my head:

-Pocket pairs up to JJ (excluding 88, 44, and 33)
-KJ
-KT
-AQ
-A8
-QJ

Bet the river, call a raise.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
K-Q and check-raised you and you feel sick about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am going to get drawn and quartered for saying this, but I've folded TPTK to a river checkraise from a TAG in live games before. it's almost never a bluff.

standard line is obviously bet and pay off a raise in both of these.

--turnipmonster

[/ QUOTE ]

In a small heads-up pot with a strong read, this laydown isn't so bad. I'd still tend to pay off like a slot machine, though. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[AviD]

bet and bet

[lil']

As for the river bet in Hand 2: With what hands that I beat does he raise preflop, call my 3bet preflop, bet the flop, and bet and call a raise on the turn?

bdk3clash posted a nice list of hands to start with. You just can't check top pair top kicker in pots like this. You get paid here way too often, and there are a ton of hands that would play this way.

I liked the flop raise until I posted the hand. Then, while I was posting, I thought some more.
My experience is probably tainted here. The last 10 limp-reraises I have faced online have not been aces, so I'm used to people doing it with a wide range of hands. If you are fairly certain this guy has aces and will 3 bet your flop raise with them, then calling is right.

[Aces McGee]

Hi bd3kclash

Thanks for the response.

Do you really think KJ, KT, and QJ bet into me on the flop after I make it three preflop?

-McGee

[lil']

Do you really think KJ, KT, and QJ bet into me on the flop after I make it three preflop?

Well, you know that flop didn't help you, and he knows it too. People will bet into you here with all sorts of crap in this spot. If you don't have an overpair, they have a chance to win a decent sized pot at some point with some aggression.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi bd3kclash

Thanks for the response.

Do you really think KJ, KT, and QJ bet into me on the flop after I make it three preflop?

-McGee

[/ QUOTE ]

Clarify the action. I thought that UTG limped, you raised, and UTG limp-raised preflop.

You wrote:

[ QUOTE ]
UTG (apparently a regular in this game, somewhat tight and aggressive) limps, folded to me and I raise. Unknown in the BB calls, UTG now re-raises, and I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Aces McGee]

Hey Clash

I think you're getting my two hands confused. In Hand 1, UTG limp reraised. In Hand 2, UTG (different player) raised, and I made it three on the button with AKo.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Clash

I think you're getting my two hands confused. In Hand 1, UTG limp reraised. In Hand 2, UTG (different player) raised, and I made it three on the button with AKo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Crap. My bad.

And hell yeah he'd bet those into you. If he check-calls he's pretty much given up. To check behind on the river pretty much means you think he has KQ, right? I'd say if he's betting the flop with KQ here, it's equally likely he'd bet it with KJ, QT, and QJ.

Also, you're conveniently ignoring actual reasonable hands he could play how he did, like 99, TT, and JJ, and (less reasonably) the other pocket pairs.

[Aces McGee]

I think 99-JJ are reasonable. Also, I'm not trying to ignore them, though it may seem that way. I'm trying to pick my spots when I respond, as I am currently at work.

Now is a good time (in the original post would have been a better time) to note that while I had played only a few hands with this guy, he had been very passive and reasonable.

Anyway, more nitpicking: even if he raises QJ or QT preflop and even if he bets into me with it, there's no way he calls my turn raise with it.

KQ is one possibility. QQ is another, and the one I was most worried about.

-McGee

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
I think 99-JJ are reasonable. Also, I'm not trying to ignore them, though it may seem that way. I'm trying to pick my spots when I respond, as I am currently at work.

Now is a good time (in the original post would have been a better time) to note that while I had played only a few hands with this guy, he had been very passive and reasonable.

Anyway, more nitpicking: even if he raises QJ or QT preflop and even if he bets into me with it, there's no way he calls my turn raise with it.

KQ is one possibility. QQ is another, and the one I was most worried about.

-McGee

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent points. More thought required...

[Aces McGee]

So, let's say I bet both rivers, and both times, I get raised.

I think a pretty good case can be made for folding both rivers, particularly hand two.

-McGee

[adanthar]

Edit: I forgot about the limp/rer in Hand 1 but I still am not folding a straight at 10:1.

Hand 2 is debatable but may also be good 10%...but then again it may not be. Eh, somebody who plays live should know this.

[AceHigh]

Hand 1: Cap the flop, you have at least 12 outs, limp reraises are more likely to be AA/KK than QQ/JJ. (At least on Party).

Bet the river (put him on a hand you can beat right? /images/graemlins/grin.gif ), wouldn't he 3-bet with a set on the turn?

Hand 2: Check/calling the flop is good if you are going to raise the turn no matter what the card is.

Easy river bet. If he has QQ pay him off. To many hands you are ahead of, JJ/TT/99 maybe AQ, rockets or Kings would probably cap preflop.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
particularly hand two.


[/ QUOTE ]

I would probably pay off on hand 2 because your opponent is unknown.

[Aces McGee]

I've given these hands quite a bit more thought since yesterday.

Hand 1 I've decided is a clear river bet. What decided it for me is that I am unlikely to be raised. It's very hard for him to put me on the straight, and he didn't reraise the turn, so -- if he has made his full house -- it seems
unlikely that he'll suddenly be confident enough that it's the best hand to risk being three-bet.

If he does raise me, I think I have to pay him off, for the times he has AA and thinks he just counterfeited my KQ. I think it's close, though.

I bet the river in hand 1. He raised me, I groaned and called, and he flipped JJ for flopped middle set and rivered boat. It makes me wonder if I gave away my hand by looking disappointed when the river card came out, or hesitating before betting (I don't remember if I did this or not). I've made a mental note to keep aware of that next time.

Hand 2 is a bit trickier, I think. The conclusion I've come to is that it's a bet as long as I'm comfortable folding to a raise (that is, my opponent isn't tricky).

I bet the river, he raised. I said "Queens?" while calling, and he said "Yep." He wasn't lying.

Thanks to all who responded. More thoughts and comments are always welcome and appreciated.

-McGee