15/30 river decision

[scrub]

Artichoke Joe's 15/30 on Friday afternoon.

I'm still adjusting to the texture of the bay area games. People fold the turn and river much more than I'm accustomed to in AC. The games seem a bit more aggressive preflop and a bit tighter and possibly even more passive postflop.

Anyway, I'm directly to the left of the loosest player at the table. I have a tight table image.

He openraises from MP. He's done this before with stuff that he probably shouldn't have, but he's not a maniac preflop. He just thinks that any two cards that are part of broadway are pretty equivalent. Nobody out here seems to 3-bet on the expensive streets without the nuts or close to it.

I've got A /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I 3-bet, everyone folds, he calls.

Flop is 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Check/bet/call.

Turn is J /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Check/check.

River is Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif. He bets. I....?

All sage advice is welcome. So is nastiness as long as it's funny.

scrub

[1800GAMBLER]

Bet the turn. If he's most likely to have broadway cards i'd be most likely to bet and think about the free showdown, if he calls and the river blanks i will probably value bet ace-queen high here.

Had i checked the turn i'd raise this river, but before i went to raise it i'd be sure in my mind that i'm not going to make excuses to call a 3 bet, if i can fold to the 3 bet i'll raise.

Yet it's still probably profitable to raise and call the 3 bet unless he doesn't make slim river bets, i.e. his bet isn't a jack.

[stoxtrader]

I thikn you raise here as well. There are lots of hands with a J in them that will play this way, unfortunately, two of them are JJ and QJ, but I still think its a value bet.

I find myself in his shoes often after whiffing a turn c/r.

[lostinthought]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody out here seems to 3-bet on the expensive streets without the nuts or close to it.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm no sage, but I would think raising and folding to a three bet is the best play here.

[Garland]

Of course I know the results, but in your spot I would simply call. You have to think about the hands that would bet out here on the river, and the ones you'll lose your stomach to to a 3-bet (I guess this isn't too bad as long as you're willing to lay down top pair top kicker to a 3-bet). Even before telling me the results and understanding what the betting sequence was here, I'm guessing that the Q was the kiss of death card for you. Most opponents wouldn't lead into you without being able to beat the top pair based on your checking (unless it's a pure bluff, and he certainly won't pay you off on a raise). The best case scenario is, he has KQ or Q10.

Someone else suggested betting the turn. I think on this board that's a fine option since you really have nothing to protect. A semi-bluff here would be prudent, and I think you can safely fold to a check-raise (even with the Q spade flush draw) and take a free showdown if just called or bet the river if you hit one of your cards (flush, A or Q). The made (almost certainly A or K high) flush will invariably check-raise you on the turn, or call and lead into you on the river.

Garland

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing that the Q was the kiss of death card for you

[/ QUOTE ]

what hand with a Q in it now beats him that wasn't already ahead?

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing that the Q was the kiss of death card for you

[/ QUOTE ]

what hand with a Q in it now beats him that wasn't already ahead?

[/ QUOTE ]

What I meant was, the Q sucked him in to calling or raising the river. When his opponent bet into him on the river I sensed danger. If scrub didn't bet out turn after 3-betting preflop and betting the flop, it screams he's waiting for one of the 3 big cards to get there, and it did. If the opponent is still willing to bet into that on that board, I very much feel it's going to be a crying call here with him winning about 25% of the time, tying 5% and losing 70%.

Garland

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
and I think you can safely fold to a check-raise (even with the Q spade flush draw)

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont play a ton of limit, but I would be hard pressed folding two overs with a third nut flush draw for one bet on the turn. He would CR with KJ, AJ, or QJ here wouldnt he?

Either way I would like that either 3-6 of my overs might be good and my Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif would be good a very good % of the time if a 4th spade hits.
All this and getting almost 7-1? I would call that CR.

fsuplayer

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and I think you can safely fold to a check-raise (even with the Q spade flush draw)

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont play a ton of limit, but I would be hard pressed folding two overs with a third nut flush draw for one bet on the turn. He would CR with KJ, AJ, or QJ here wouldnt he?

Either way I would like that either 3-6 of my overs might be good and my Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif would be good a very good % of the time if a 4th spade hits.
All this and getting almost 7-1? I would call that CR.

fsuplayer

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the 3-bet preflop from a tight scrub, if he had KJ, AJ, QJ I believe his opponent would do the following depending on his level of ability/aggressiveness:

1) bet out the flop
2) check-raise the flop
3) call down like a weak lemming

I find it hard-pressed to believe he would check-raise the turn with simply a jack. A check-raise on the turn is most likely a flush, a 2 or a full house. In addition, if his opponent has a flush, it's most likely to be ahead as his opponent's draw as he would have to have at best 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif or worse and makes it an unlikely candidate for a raise in comparison to A /images/graemlins/spade.gifx /images/graemlins/spade.gif or K /images/graemlins/spade.gifX /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Garland

[1800GAMBLER]

Yep. You'd have to be ~80% certain he only checkraises with the nut flush. No way.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it hard-pressed to believe he would check-raise the turn with simply a jack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless the game has completely changed since I played it (it has been over six months since I've played it regularly, though I did play it once in March), there are a number of players who will checkraise there w/ just a jack or even just the Ace of spades.

[scrub]

I didn't want to get checkraised on the turn since I didn't think I could fold. I'd bet this turn if I had A /images/graemlins/spade.gif and often bet it with no /images/graemlins/spade.gif, but I hate having the Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif, especially in a game I'm still feeling out.

Anyway, I raised planning on folding to a 3-bet. I got called by A /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif, which Garland takes as evidence that the game was so passive I should have just made a crying call. I still think the raise had value, but the games sure were passive...

Thanks for the responses!

scrub

[rory]

Call or raise and fold to a 3-bet.

-rory