I Violated the Prime Directive

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Foxwoods Act II single-table satellite today. Winner gets the buy-in to the $1,020 + 30 Act III multi-table Super. 2nd & 3rd get another shot an an Act II.

5 left. 100/200, I am on the button with 2750, Erratic, somewhat LAG BB has 3350, the other 3900 are split among the other three.

Folded to me, I have 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I make it 600 to go. SB folds, BB looks at his cards and immediately goes all-in. It's real easy for me to fold here, but his move screams weakness (even though weakness might still mean 2 overcards). He's pulled this more than once before with other preflop raisers. But, on the other hand, he's the only stack right now that can really hurt me. On the other hand, the blinds will go to 150/300 in about a minute. I look at him again and am convinced that if he has a pair, it's smaller than mine.

I take a deep breath and call.

Flame away. Results later.

[Jurollo]

I can't say I wouldn't have thought of doing the same thing too, most likely you are 54% favorite and if you read him as LAG then the 88 becomes more powerful. Interested to hear what the results were.

[willie]

i'd say you should probably fold here.....

he's a lag, so at worst he's probably 50 percent, you're a better player and you'll have better chances to pick him off when you're better than a coin toss.

why not just let him take this one down and put your money in a spot that favors your skill as opposed to basically chance.

and if he has a lower pair.....you'll never know, so just let it go

if you doubled through, then great though, i'm an idiot and my advice isn't so good. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[TylerD]

I think you're gambling here, and sometimes gambling is fun, probably 50/50.

[Tosh]

S'ok the prime directive doesn't apply to klingons.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

As was pointed out, this was a gambling call. Even with a non-prime hand, he likely has 2 overcards, and I'm out if he hits. On the other hand, I've felt I've missed chances in Act II's by being timid, and playing not to lose. My logic was simply that if my hand held up, I'd have over 60% of the chips in play and I decided right there that I would say "damn 2nd or 3rd."

When I called, he looked disappointed, and said "good choice" as he flipped over Q /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Then he saw my snowmen and said "I like my hand." Fortunately for me, he got no help. I doubled up and went on to win.

So Thursday night I'll be back there trying to win my seat in the $10K WPT event. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Jurollo]

Well good luck in the Act III Kurn. I am hoping to get through the first 2 Acts within a couple weeks. From what I have heard I should have a fairly easy go of it in Act I. Then hopefully get some cards in Act II. Anyhoo, enough about me, good luck Kurn, best case scenario I'll see you in November in the WPT event.

[Cosimo]

If it's mathematically correct to pass up a good bet if losing that bet can keep you from making an even better bet later on, I think a coinflip is a definite laydown.

Taking chances is one thing, but it sounds like three players are in 5xBB territory while you are still over 10x (but just barely). You don't want to pass time just to make the money (ie you want to win), but there's better bets out there. Will 55% of the chips give you enough of a lock on first that it's worth taking? Are the other three weak enough that you're likely to have enough chips to take up arms against big-stack LAG? Let's say 55% of the chips gives you 66% equity. Would you be at 33% equity with 21%?

Because you asked for it: "any idiot would know to throw this hand away."

Finally, I'm still playing $5+.50 SNGs so what do I know. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Moozh]

Well, I saw the results, but still... This immediately made me think of a passage of TPFAP on bubble play. I don't have it in front of me, but I remember it being something like if you call an all-in as a 55% favorite with THREE left (equal stacks) and the payouts are 60-30-10, you will lose money. You needed to be about a 58% favorite to break even.

In this case, you have 5 left, and the payout structure is even more steep. I would think that makes an even stronger argument to fold.

That said, the blinds are getting big, and you're going to need to find a way to gain some chips soon. This may be your best chance. I can't say for sure, I'm only a break-even 10+1 player.

[Grivan]

You need to take into consideration the fact that you don't have even pot odds here. At the point you made the call you were risking 2150 to win 3650 unless I missed something. Also since you are sure the worst case scenario is you being slightly ahead in a coin flip, I don't think you can lay this down if you are going for 1st place.

[SeppDeitrich]

wouldn't the steep payout structure favor close gambles?
you cannot make money by waiting others out in this structure and taking 2nd for instance, so shouldn't you gamble more than in a tournament where there is money for more than just first place?

Look at the section in TPFAP about chips going down in value as you accumulate more. If it is winner take all chip values are closer to flat than they are in a tournament that pays multiple spots.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

you were risking 2150 to win 3650

That sure looks like I'm getting better than 3:2 from the pot as an 11:9 favorite.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

wouldn't the steep payout structure favor close gambles?

Since 2nd and 3rd only get me another Act II buy-in (value $150), it would seem that taking this gamble based on my read of the BB, while it may be close CEV-wise, may well be much better than that $EV-wise.

Also, to combine TPFAP and some of Fossilman's advice (as well as I can remember both), yes, TPFAP says pass up close gambles, but Greg once said(IIRC) that if your edge is greater than 10%, that's *not* a close gamble.

I'm getting better than 3:2 from the pot, I'm an 11:9 favorite, and as I said, I think $EV > CEV here. In that case, maybe this actually is not so close a gamble after all.

I'm also happy to have someone point out that this ex post facto analysis is full of it. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[stripsqueez]

i called before i saw the results - i was a bit torn but if i want to win then this is a prime chance to do that

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[stupidsucker]

Is it too early to push and start putting the pressure on yourself? Not allowing the LAG to play back at you every time with any cards sucking up your 3xBB bet.

I rarely play sats or MTTs, so I really dont know the answer. If this was a SnG I would have pushed to steal the 300 in blinds.

[Prickly Pete]

Congrats on the win. Given the prize structure combined with your read, I think you have to make the call as well.

Just as an aside, since I'll be trying a few of these soon, what's the tipping protocol for these types of satellites? Seems like you haven't won anything unless you cash in the big one, but then again the dealer did deal the sat. Hmmmm...

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I've never seen anyone tip at these. Besides, Foxwoods dealers all pool tips, and I believe the pool includes *all* table games.

[Prickly Pete]

Gotcha. Thanks for the info.